Rosen's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

Gold has been declining for the past couple of weeks due to a strong technical boundary. The precious metal reached the level of $1,295, which comes just a few points above the resistance. Since then it started to depreciate with rapid pace to a low of $1,259.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1,264, some $30 lower than it's 6 month high made on April 17. The precious metal still needs the support of the bullish camp, moreover now when it's right at the 200SMA.

Weekly time-frame shows how strong the resistance really is. We see that the latest high came at the same resistance line that goes back to the all time high of $1,920. If we can get past $1,300 we might see a renewed positivism in the Gold market.

 

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AUD/CAD met the resistance level at 1.0317 this morning before the European session opened. The pair immediately and gracefully retreated from the resistance zone and is now trading slightly below it at 1.0285.

Bears will try to take control over it now and push it further down. First potential target zone is eyed around 1.0250 which would be considered a prior pivot point if we can get a bounce off of it.

If that level does not hold, major bear target on the short-term is expected at 1.0100. This would be considered the potential bounce point where bulls will try to sustain the uptrend channel.

However, a break below this point would invalidate the upward trend and put more pressure on the pair.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY is currently at a crossroad between breaking the downward trend and confirming it. The pair is now trading at 112.78 which marks the resistance level on the medium term, namely, the trend that started in the beginning of January. Since then, the USD/JPY pair has been going South as price is obediently trading in a descending channel.

What traders and investors now anticipate is whether the line would be broken. A break above 113 would put some pressure on bears as this could be a possible discontinuation of the trend and the formation of a new uptrend move.

On the other hand, if price remains in the channel, bears would attempt to bring it down to potential target at 110.10, second target is expected at 108 and major short-term target is 107.

 

[rosentray]

Latest NFP's and Market Reaction
The latest NFP and Unemployment data is out:

USD Unemployment Rate (APR)

Actual: 4.4%
Survey: 4.6%
Previous: 4.5%

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR) comes in better than expected.
Actual: 211k
Survey: 190k
Previous: 79k

The aforementioned data was not enough to drive investors interest back to the US dollar and after the news release all USD pairs ended up with little to no change. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading higher than pre-news. Price is now 1.0989, a level marking the weekly high.

If the pair closes around current market price, next week could turn out to be a continuation of the upside move in the EUR/USD.

Above 1.10 would be an indication that market participants are drifting away from the US currency in regards to the rumors about a rate hike in June.

 

[rosentray]

The EUR/USD pair opened with a gap again in the opening seconds of the trading session as traders and investors saw a new opportunity to go long based on the results of the French elections. The elected President is Emmanuel Macron with 66.1% of the votes.

The initial reaction in the EUR/USD was a sharp appreciation to a high of 1.1020, highest since the Presidential elections in the United States on Nov 9.

What's surprising for most market participants is that the positive reaction in the Euro did not last long. The effect lasted just a few hours before the pair started to depreciate. EUR/USD is now 1.0928 and it looks like the momentum has been lost.

What's needed now is fresh news such as weak US data or strong EU data in order for the pair to continue climbing above 1.10.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY is on its way to conquer new highs. The pair reacted strongly bullishly to the bounce off of the 200SMA in mid-April when it reached a low of 108.13 and has been appreciating since then. It is now trading above 114 for the first time since mid-March.

If the bulls keep on pushing the pair, the first target is seen at 115.50 which has the potential to form a double top and put in motion the bear instincts to short the asset.

If that level is broken, then the next one is seen at 117, which falls on the upper trendline of the downtrend trading channel. This level would be harder to breach as it has stopped the bulls multiple times.

Recently, the US dollar has been showing signs of strengthening surprisingly right after the French elections when market participants expected the Euro to dominate the currency market.

 

[rosentray]

The Yen has been going down against all its peers lately. The EUR/YEN pair is rallying since mid-April when price was a bit below 115. Then the French elections gave some boost to the Euro causing the pair to gap open in the end of April.

Currently, EUR/YEN is trading at 124.20 and although it made a minor move down yesterday, bulls have successfully managed to put it back up to the latest high at 124.50.

If the last high is broken, the pair would most likely continue to first bull target at 125.00. It is expected that bears will try to take control over it and make a corrective wave which could cause the pair to reduce in price to first probable target at 120.00.

The pair has made a great rally going about 1000 points in less than a month. Currently, the levels are a decisive factor for the future progress of the pair.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD is having a strong rally that started since the pair was at support at 1.32249 just about a month ago. Today, the pair is 1.3714, marking a bull run with close to 500 points movement. Main trend on the short-term is expected to stay bullish if bulls manage to climb above the resistance at 1.38, which could be considered a double top.

On the other hand, bears might attempt to push the price down to first support zone at 1.36, second support zone at 1.3210, and major support zone at 1.30.

If they get above 1.38, then first target level is eyed at 1.3860. Technically, the pair is now in its highest point since February 2016 when the pair dived with more than 2500 points from 1.48 to below 1.25.

Partially, the appreciation of the pair is due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Although, the US dollar also had its weak points recently, the USD bulls were able to sustain the momentum in the pair and keep it going up.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/JPY is currently hesitating whether it should continue its move to the upside. The pair rallied from 135.60 in mid-April to a high of 148 last week. Since then, the Sterling has been taking a breather doing some correction moves and consolidation around the level of 146.70.

If the continuation continues with hints of going to the upside, first potential target is seen at 148.50, which forms a double top. If that level does not hold the bulls, second and stronger level is 150.

Well above the 200SMA, GBP/JPY has a strong momentum to the upside as the bull camp seems determined to push it higher.

The corrective wave might be expected to continue until tomorrow when the UK will release the GBP Core CPI and CPI data.

 

[rosentray]

In the last few days we have been witnessing the ascent of Gold as the precious metal registered a climb from a low of $1,214 to a high of $1,245. The latest was made in the early trading hours of the Asian session today and now price is slightly lower at $1,242.

With the depreciation of the US dollar, traders and investors have eyed the precious metals as diversification and safe haven. Bulls are in control currently as Gold is trading in the ascending trading channel on the medium term. First bull target is seen at $1,257 and major for the short-term is $1,275. Above that, Gold would be exposed to the bullish momentum away from the noise below $1,300.

If, however, the US dollar starts to climb again we may see a retreat from the Gold market which could substantially lower Gold's price. Support is seen at $1,220.

Silver is also in the green this week as price advanced from $16,04 to a high of $16.96.