Sell AUDJPY | Current Sentiment

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Our trade call is to sell AUDJPY on a retracement to the 80.60 area. Earlier in the Asian session, Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China printed at 49.4, below estimates. And Australian Building Approvals beat at 3.7% for March. Ahead we have Manufacturing PMI from the UK and later GDT from New Zealand.

Current Sentiment

The key event during the Asia-Pacific session was the highly anticipated RBA rate decision where the Bank cut the Cash Rate to 1.75%. Although less than half the economists polled by Bloomberg expected a cut, there was really no chance of the RBA being on hold given the massive miss in core inflation figures last week, and in the context of their clear signalling via the prior statements. We were looking to position short AUD ahead the decision but our short trade was stopped out at breakeven as the market rallied Aussie 60 on the day heading into the rate cut – which shows how inefficient financial markets can be. Aussie dropped 160 pips on the news, with AUDJPY also pressured, falling 190 to find support at the 80 handle. The statement mentioned that the inflation outlook is now lower than previously forecast. We will see the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday.

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