I was thinking of shorting the pair this week, it has been in a weekly channel since last Oct.(6 significant touches) and looks to be breaking back down the channel. Every large move in this channel has retraced to at least 61.8 and we are only at 23.6 based on the up move started in early March. It also looks to be breaking the 4 hour channel started since April 5th. Also a double top( or very close to it) has formed on the day charts. I made 157 pips trading a 10k lot from 142.95 to 141.37, but it seems to be headed back to 136.00. My strategy is to short it tonite after I see what happened over the weekend and to see if it moves back up for a time. I'm new to forex(about 2 months) but have been profitable thus far(financial goal of $350.00 per week to start). It is not my day job!!!! I have a disciplined system of trading only 1-2 trades per day with 10k-30k lots depending on risk. Never have over 3% risked on any trade. I want to try a longer trade with this pair shorting a 10k lot around 141.00 with a goal of 137.5 possibly by the end of week if the pair behaves according to the channel. I will place a trailing stop to follow it down. All the indicators seem in place, but obviously that can change. I was hoping to get some input from more experienced traders on my thoughts for this trade. Fundamentally with the goldman sachs news it seems to help the pair also. Thanks in advance for any advice!!!
Neal
Neal