Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey folks:
It's been an extremely busy week for me, but as far as news releases, this past week was relatively quiet. Here's what happened with news trading:
NEWS TRADING
1. Tue August 10, 2010 2:15pm EDT - US Federal Funds Rate
Historical Chart & Data For US Federal Funds Rate Analysis Triggered - 60+ pips
2. Wed August 11, 2010 9:30pm EDT - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change No Trade
3. Thu August 12, 2010 6:45pm EDT - NZ Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data For NZ Retail Sales No Trade
4. Fri August 13, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core CPI & Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data For US Core CPI No Trade
Historical Chart & Data For USD Core Retail Sales No Trade
It depends on where you got in based on my FOMC analysis, there is actually a chance for over 120+ pips of gain if you were trading the GBP/USD pair. For the record, we'll count 60+ Pips for the week based on news trading.
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As far as weekly trend front, this is what I recommended:
Weekly Trend
1. BUY USD/CAD between 1.0100~1.0000
Market didn't quite drop down to the 1.0100 level, but at the start of the week, we saw some strong trend reversal as indicated and USD/CAD moved up about 222 pips throughout the week. If you bought on any dips, you should have make some pips.
2. BUY USD/JPY between 85.00 ~ 85.10
Market dipped down below 85.00 and then bounced back up to the 86.33 as expected. If you got in around 85.00, you would have seen at least 130 pips by the end of the week.
Total pips for Weekly Trend: 130 Pips
And for pre-news trading, here is what we ended up this week:
Pre News Trading
1. For Australian Employment - "AUD/USD should be under pressure from the recent FOMC statement is casting doubt over global economic recovery. It is likely we'll see some selling pressure on this pair, but not from the pre-news as Employment has been a strong area for the booming economy. I would be looking for a possible short-term bounce on account of pre-news, but I am still looking for long-term shorts for this pair and a bounce back could offer opportunities for a SELL."
If you sold at all during preview session and even after the release, you should be looking at a maximum of 280 pips. As long as you SOLD.
2. For NZD Retail Sales - "With the general market under a strong risk aversion sentiment, NZD is trading lower and is likely to remain on this path until risk sentiment changes. With last week's employment data at -0.3% versus the 0.5% expected and Unemployment rate soaring to 6.8% versus 6.3% expected, we should see some pre-selling of NZD/USD prior to the release."
If you sold from the top around the 0.7200 area, there is a potential of picking up about 100 pips from this trade.
Total Pre-News Potential Pips: 380 pips
***
Total Potential Pips For The Week: 570 Pips.
However, this does not count the USD/CAD trend suggestion, which ended up with 220+ pips of gain; and remember my prediction of a major trend change? See what happened with the Euro?
I think what most traders need is direction. Entry/Exits doesn't matter much, what matters is the RIGHT direction. If you've been following my directional bias throughout the week, you should be doing beautifully.
If you only picked up 25% of the total potential pips, you should still ended up with: 142 Pips.
SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM HENRY
If you like my signals and you have made some pips. This is what I need you to do: Share with me on how many pips you've made and share this post via Twitter and Facebook if you have accounts there... I know there are thousands of traders on FPA but most don't even take a second to post a comment. Please understand that writing these analyses is a VERY LONELY process, and the communication is one-way. If you don't take the time to respond and show that you care (btw, sharing is caring), then services like this may not last long.
So if you care, then share!
Thank you,
It's been an extremely busy week for me, but as far as news releases, this past week was relatively quiet. Here's what happened with news trading:
NEWS TRADING
1. Tue August 10, 2010 2:15pm EDT - US Federal Funds Rate
Historical Chart & Data For US Federal Funds Rate Analysis Triggered - 60+ pips
2. Wed August 11, 2010 9:30pm EDT - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change No Trade
3. Thu August 12, 2010 6:45pm EDT - NZ Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data For NZ Retail Sales No Trade
4. Fri August 13, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core CPI & Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data For US Core CPI No Trade
Historical Chart & Data For USD Core Retail Sales No Trade
It depends on where you got in based on my FOMC analysis, there is actually a chance for over 120+ pips of gain if you were trading the GBP/USD pair. For the record, we'll count 60+ Pips for the week based on news trading.
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hMqnr6YoeBs?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hMqnr6YoeBs?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
As far as weekly trend front, this is what I recommended:
Weekly Trend
1. BUY USD/CAD between 1.0100~1.0000
Market didn't quite drop down to the 1.0100 level, but at the start of the week, we saw some strong trend reversal as indicated and USD/CAD moved up about 222 pips throughout the week. If you bought on any dips, you should have make some pips.
2. BUY USD/JPY between 85.00 ~ 85.10
Market dipped down below 85.00 and then bounced back up to the 86.33 as expected. If you got in around 85.00, you would have seen at least 130 pips by the end of the week.
Total pips for Weekly Trend: 130 Pips
And for pre-news trading, here is what we ended up this week:
Pre News Trading
1. For Australian Employment - "AUD/USD should be under pressure from the recent FOMC statement is casting doubt over global economic recovery. It is likely we'll see some selling pressure on this pair, but not from the pre-news as Employment has been a strong area for the booming economy. I would be looking for a possible short-term bounce on account of pre-news, but I am still looking for long-term shorts for this pair and a bounce back could offer opportunities for a SELL."
If you sold at all during preview session and even after the release, you should be looking at a maximum of 280 pips. As long as you SOLD.
2. For NZD Retail Sales - "With the general market under a strong risk aversion sentiment, NZD is trading lower and is likely to remain on this path until risk sentiment changes. With last week's employment data at -0.3% versus the 0.5% expected and Unemployment rate soaring to 6.8% versus 6.3% expected, we should see some pre-selling of NZD/USD prior to the release."
If you sold from the top around the 0.7200 area, there is a potential of picking up about 100 pips from this trade.
Total Pre-News Potential Pips: 380 pips
***
Total Potential Pips For The Week: 570 Pips.
However, this does not count the USD/CAD trend suggestion, which ended up with 220+ pips of gain; and remember my prediction of a major trend change? See what happened with the Euro?
I think what most traders need is direction. Entry/Exits doesn't matter much, what matters is the RIGHT direction. If you've been following my directional bias throughout the week, you should be doing beautifully.
If you only picked up 25% of the total potential pips, you should still ended up with: 142 Pips.
SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM HENRY
If you like my signals and you have made some pips. This is what I need you to do: Share with me on how many pips you've made and share this post via Twitter and Facebook if you have accounts there... I know there are thousands of traders on FPA but most don't even take a second to post a comment. Please understand that writing these analyses is a VERY LONELY process, and the communication is one-way. If you don't take the time to respond and show that you care (btw, sharing is caring), then services like this may not last long.
So if you care, then share!
Thank you,
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