Signals Review July 12~16, 2010

[Henry Liu]

Hey folks,

Unfortunately out of the 5 tradable news this week (listed below), we didn't get any tradable releases:

1. Tuesday July 13, 2010 (4:30am NY Time) - UK CPI y/y
Detailed History And Charts For UK CPI y/y

2. Tuesday July 13, 2010 (6:45pm NY Time) - NZ Retail Sales
Detailed History And Charts For NZ Retail Sales

3. Wednesday July 14, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) - US Core Retail Sales
Detailed History And Charts For US Core Retail Sales

4. Thursday July 15, 2010 (6:45pm NY Time) - NZ CPI q/q
Detailed History And Charts For NZ CPI q/q

5. Friday July 16, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) - US Core CPI
Detailed History And Charts For US Core CPI

But I did make a recommendation to SELL EUR/USD when it breaches the 1.3000 yesterday in my analysis for the U.S. Core CPI m/m release. If you were able to get in right around the 1.3000, you should be up 50 pips or more, depending on where you have gotten out of the market. Here is the chart:

I believe EUR/USD may stall at this level for a little bit, but the long/mid term view for this pair is definitely downwards. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.2500 or even lower in the next few weeks, therefore I'd recommend taking some profits off the table and keep a portion of the trade running. You'll thank me later

Looking at the market today, we saw the collapse of risk appetite sentiment and a surprise drop in consumer confidence number, along with disappointing earnings figures when compared to a year ago from Bank of America and Citigroup, which led the market to a sharp sell off. With earning season getting on the way, we should expect more volatility next week.

I'll be preparing another post for the upcoming signals July 19~23, make sure you check it out on Sunday.


Thanks,

 

[R C Douglas]

Mr Liu,

Thank you for your concise & informative Trading Signals coverage. They have been very helpful thus far; however, yesterday it was unclear to me which of the (USDJPY or EURUSD) pairs to trade. I traded both, but the USDJPY didn't do as well. I am excited having you cover these signals and look forward to reading more. Thank you again!

 

[yappyzk]

better luck next week

 

[DaveO]

Henry,

Was your EURUSD 1.3000 number just the next whole number or did you see some tangible resistance level there ? All I see for resistance on daily chart is 61.8% ret of the last swing down from 12th April high at 1.2997. Is that what you were referencing ?

Thanks for all your excellent commentary!

David.

 

[iklement]

Friday

Hi Henry,
I'm very new to forex so I'm grateful for any info I can get. Last night I was buying Us/cad and selling Gbp/Us and I've done pretty good. Thanks for your signals and explanations. Helps me understand the system. Good work

 

[azibi]

Nzd Cpi

Hi Henry.

I don't understand why you called the a/m number non tradeable. It was lower as expected and so i took a quick short. First reaction 25 pips. Second reaction 50 pips. In the end I closed with 100 pips profit! It basically changed the short term trend which was a bit up, after the release very much down.
Look forward to your reply.

Best
Peter

 

[Henry Liu]

Hi Henry.

I don't understand why you called the a/m number non tradeable. It was lower as expected and so i took a quick short. First reaction 25 pips. Second reaction 50 pips. In the end I closed with 100 pips profit! It basically changed the short term trend which was a bit up, after the release very much down.
Look forward to your reply.

Best
Peter

What is a/m number? If I don't trade a particular release, it's because past releases didn't work out at least 70% of the time. That's my minimum requirement, it has to work if and when the deviation is hit, or I rather stay away from it.

 

[RCM]

Forex signals

Hi Henry,

Thanks for the USDJPY trade signal last night. As the announcement was made I was watching the 5 min chart and took a long on the basis of the rising green candle. However it soon became clear that this pair was going short so after losing 12.5 points I went long and picked up 28 points to make a net 15 points.

As this short trade on USDJPY was developing I also shorted the DAX30, FTSE100, SPI200 and S&P500 and made 71.75 points from these trades.

FPA signals service is excellent and if I had waited for the post spike indication on the USDJPY before jumping in I would have made a few more points. At the time of the announcement USDJPY was in a down trend so I was going against the trend when I jumped in long.

Keep up the good work

Cheers

RCM

 

[moom]

Hi Henry,

thank you very much , keep up the good work

cheers

MOOM

 

[DaveO]

If we all post our trades here plus general ego trips the thread will become ridiculous. And particularly trades which do not fall within the criteria Henry is applying.

Let's try to keep posts strictly within the context of Henry's criteria and resist the temptation to wander.

David.