Signals Review (March 15 - March 19)

I have to agree with Crazy Cat. There are so many reports one can trade. There are a bunch of reliable news releases out there though there are many that are not worth trading. Trading any news release carries great risk. We have seen in the past some releases spiking in the opposite direction to the data that is received.

Also be cautious about trading a news release when there are other components to it. There were several reports coming out the same time as UK Claimant Count Change last week: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/index.html?week=2010/0321&dir=b&sort=dateDesc&timezone=&currency=|&importance=|. Imagine if BOE minutes conflicted with Claimant Count; this would have caused very nasty price action. Generally I have a safe rule of not trading news releases unless I am as sure as I can be.

Not so long ago we had the very reliable UK Retail Sales report. I remember the m/m number coming with a good positive deviation, though the y/y number came out deviating negatively and was not a great trade.

I must admit I have traded UK Claimant Count in the past. I feel more comfortable trading it when BOE minutes do not come out at the same time. There may well have been a statement that came out with the minutes making the gbp/usd respond so bullishly as it did. If you feel you really must trade UK Claimant Count as an example and there are potentially conflicting reports, keep your trade sizes very low to minimize risk.
 
I have to agree with Crazy Cat. There are so many reports one can trade. There are a bunch of reliable news releases out there though there are many that are not worth trading. Trading any news release carries great risk. We have seen in the past some releases spiking in the opposite direction to the data that is received.

Also be cautious about trading a news release when there are other components to it. There were several reports coming out the same time as UK Claimant Count Change last week: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/index.html?week=2010/0321&dir=b&sort=dateDesc&timezone=&currency=|&importance=|. Imagine if BOE minutes conflicted with Claimant Count; this would have caused very nasty price action. Generally I have a safe rule of not trading news releases unless I am as sure as I can be.

Not so long ago we had the very reliable UK Retail Sales report. I remember the m/m number coming with a good positive deviation, though the y/y number came out deviating negatively and was not a great trade.

I must admit I have traded UK Claimant Count in the past. I feel more comfortable trading it when BOE minutes do not come out at the same time. There may well have been a statement that came out with the minutes making the gbp/usd respond so bullishly as it did. If you feel you really must trade UK Claimant Count as an example and there are potentially conflicting reports, keep your trade sizes very low to minimize risk.

West Coast Pips - wise words I have to admit. However, according to my trading strategy I don't really care whether the price action moves in the same direction the data are received. For me it's important that the PA does a move. Of course, the bigger it is the better for me, unless it's a whipsaw that I hate. Btw. what is really crucial is the risk management. This is the most important thing in trading, no matter if it's news trading, breakouts, long-term or any other kind of trading. If you stick into your own rules and follow them you don't have to worry. I also adapt the settings according the news' nature.

CCC can be either good mover or a whipsaw type of report, but that can be any of the other reports as well. I was just wondering why it wasn't included in the trade list where more unreliable reports were mentioned (for example CAD CPI and CAD Retail Sales), although they made a big surprise this time and went well. However, I think that these two reports were an exception thanks the huge deviation, but CCC seems to be working much better than these two.

Nevermind, we will see how they act in the future.
 
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