Signals Review (May 03 - May 07)

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi there

This is Crazy Cat, with the review of the week.

This week, we were watching 12 economic indicators and 4 of them hit the trigger.

1. Wednesday, May 05th (18:45 New York time) NEW ZEALAND
NZ Unemployment q/q

NZ Unemployment came out at shockingly low rate 6.00% vs. 7.3% expected (which is good for NZD), and then Employment Change came out at 1 vs 0.2 expected (which is also good for NZD). Apparently NZ Unemployment was released first, followed by the employment number a few seconds later. I hope you had your triggers set up on the unemployment number. In any event, the price move was fantastic: NZD/USD was going higher and higher so as long as you entered long, you should end up with a profit. NZD/USD yielded over 60 pips in first 45 minutes. Here is the chart:
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

Unfortunately, I had final week at my university, and I had one of the final exams during that release so I could not trade it.

2. Thursday, May 06th (04:30 New York time) UK
Services PMI

This one I traded, and it turned out to be a dog. It's hard to say if the market did not care about Services PMI, or rather the market was more focused on the elections going on in the UK. However, if you look at the 4H candle before the release, the GBP/USD was heading down before the reports. Apparently people took advantage of the lower price and entered long at the better, discounted price. I made 2 pips on one of my brokers, and lost about 5 to 6 pips on a few others so overall it was a loss for me; not a big loss, however.

Here is the chart:
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

The following two, CA Employment and US NonFarm I overslept, after having busy final week at university with six exams... so I can only comment from what I heard from people and saw from charts.

3. Friday, May 07th (07:00 New York time) CANADA
Canadian Employment Change

It's typical that if you miss something, it had to be huge (and if you are around, it's a no trade). In fact, it was upsetting me to see a deviation of +83.7K on the Employment Change, and a spike of 100 pips. All right, congratulations if you made money. I know some who made really good money, and some who got only requotes and no fills.

Here is the chart:

4. Friday, May 07th (08:30 New York time) USA
US Non-Farm Payroll

This one also had a big deviation on the Employment Change but the number was conflicting with the unemployment release. The deviation was 100.5 K (290 vs 189.5 expected) and very positive revision (162K last month revised to 230K). We actually saw a spike up of 50 pips on USD/JPY and, in fact, I know someone who made money on the spike. However, things got nasty when we saw unemployment rate raising from 9.7% to 9.9%. It seems it is a contradiction but this is how it is calculated: they account those who are looking for a job, not all of those who don't have a job. For example, a housewife who takes care of the kids full-time and stays at home while her husband has a great paid job so she does not need a job does not count as unemployed person. Also, those who gave up on looking a job don't count as unemployed. Because the job market is finally adding jobs, more people are now seeking jobs, (more than the economy actually added) and therefore the unemployment rate also went up. I hope the job market continues to grow, that's what a lot of people desperately need. We clearly see this is a new, positive trend since month after another month we now see positive numbers.

In any event, we saw really strange price action and USD/JPY going below the prerelease price.

Here is the chart:
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

Personally, I am happy I overslept this report.

That's all for this week!

Have a nice Sunday!
-Crazy Cat
Last edited by a moderator:


Private, 1st Class

Crazycat: most likely you have a flaw in your text: In any event, we saw really strange price action and NZD/JPY going below the prerelease price.

You meant USD/JPY, right? :)

My summary:
NZD unemployment - got fill, but was cautious and tried just with a microlot for the "execution test" purposes and ended up with loss thanks the huge spread during the news that stopped me out on my TS. NZD/USD faces a liquidity problem, so one has to be very carefull and check broker's spreads for this currency pair

Services PMI - This one really pissed me a lot! Lost about 20 pips, got fill on the top of the spike and experienced hard retracement right afterwards.

Canada employment change - no fill.

This sentence is a hard true, Crazycat:
It's typical that if you miss something, it had to be huge (and if you are around, it's a no trade).

This happened to me so many times already and moreover I had one or two weeks a consecutive row of such events, that I already thought that I'm cursed or something :) At least I see that I'm not the only one who experienced such a bad luck and I was heard by other traders, that sometimes such a bad luck simply happens right before the news release (computer breaks down, internet connection drops, order entries are late, because of out-of-synced clocks, or oversleeping...) Well, Murphy's laws in forex are much more powerful than in other aspects of life :)

However, I'm still curious who had a fill on Canada? Price moved so quickly that I can't imagine who could get filled.

Btw. Crazycat: when you're talking by a requote, who uses MM for trading news nowadays? Is it still possible?

Non-farm payrolls: managed to get 15.9 pips after retracement hit my TS. Well, could managed nice 40 pips, but was just late thinking about the numbers and hoped that the price will go up. Next time I'll be hopefully ready for a more accurate reaction :)

Btw. you didn't mentione Australian Retail Sales, probably, because it deviated only by 0.4. However I took about 15 pips on this report as well, because I acted as a human SNW :) I had to improvize, because right before the report my trading strategy for news straddling failed (didn't I mention the Murphy's law above? :) and I chose to manually sell AUD/USD right after the news release and got luck and ended up with profit :)

Btw. thank you for the US non-farm unemployment rate explanation, I was also wondering how it works and how can this number be in conflict with the main headline, but now I know.