Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey guys. Sorry I just eventually faded off the radar. I keep track of the markets and all, but my naval career has really taken over my time and focus over the last couple of years and that's what I'm really pouring myself into right now. I'll definitely get back into teaching and trading forex and the financial markets full time once I'm out of the Navy, but for now I don't have the time to do it justice.
Just remember, trading is not a casino. It's not sports betting. It's not about seeing into the future at where the currency or market is going to go and betting hard on it. It's about taking advantage of patterns and swings in a methodical manner, and setting yourself up with an acceptable max risk on losses (I generally recommend 1-2%). Sure you try to anticipate major moves and even make some predictions, but you have to trade them in such a way where you don't have to be right all the time to earn profit.
As far as investing is concerned, I thought we'd see another major dip in the stock market bringing the S&P500 to 600's or lower again by now. I still think there's a very measurable risk we see another major dip in the stock market. All I've done on that bias though is hold back from buying stocks and waiting until either stocks take that major dip, or that risk dies off substantially. In the end I'm not losing any money from my relatively bearish outlook on equities. I may have "missed out" on the rally from 1100 to the 1300's, but I simply think that the risk of losses outweigh profit potential here. It's the same thing with trading... you want either the likelihood or amount of profit to outweigh your risk, otherwise stay out =P Thankfully though, my plan of maintaining a 20% investment in gold is working out nicely.
For the last year or so I've been on the sidelines gaining a lot of big picture perspective on the markets and persistence of trends. It's nice to see the community still thriving here as I hope there's still an eager home for me in the forex world when I find time to return. It's remarkable how everything is so inter-related. Oftentimes I see the price of gas at the gas station on the way to work shift and from that, I can often tell where the EUR/USD is without having looked at a chart for awhile. I'm really thinking that the patience I'm being forced to develop from not trading will really benefit me once I return to trading down the road. Hopefully people will still be around that remember me then... but if not, I'll be still be happy to start fresh and reprove myself once again.
Just remember, trading is not a casino. It's not sports betting. It's not about seeing into the future at where the currency or market is going to go and betting hard on it. It's about taking advantage of patterns and swings in a methodical manner, and setting yourself up with an acceptable max risk on losses (I generally recommend 1-2%). Sure you try to anticipate major moves and even make some predictions, but you have to trade them in such a way where you don't have to be right all the time to earn profit.
As far as investing is concerned, I thought we'd see another major dip in the stock market bringing the S&P500 to 600's or lower again by now. I still think there's a very measurable risk we see another major dip in the stock market. All I've done on that bias though is hold back from buying stocks and waiting until either stocks take that major dip, or that risk dies off substantially. In the end I'm not losing any money from my relatively bearish outlook on equities. I may have "missed out" on the rally from 1100 to the 1300's, but I simply think that the risk of losses outweigh profit potential here. It's the same thing with trading... you want either the likelihood or amount of profit to outweigh your risk, otherwise stay out =P Thankfully though, my plan of maintaining a 20% investment in gold is working out nicely.
For the last year or so I've been on the sidelines gaining a lot of big picture perspective on the markets and persistence of trends. It's nice to see the community still thriving here as I hope there's still an eager home for me in the forex world when I find time to return. It's remarkable how everything is so inter-related. Oftentimes I see the price of gas at the gas station on the way to work shift and from that, I can often tell where the EUR/USD is without having looked at a chart for awhile. I'm really thinking that the patience I'm being forced to develop from not trading will really benefit me once I return to trading down the road. Hopefully people will still be around that remember me then... but if not, I'll be still be happy to start fresh and reprove myself once again.
), a big welcome back and a real pleasure to see you back here.
