Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 1-06-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

Sorry for the late update... been busy trading this nice EUR/USD price action. There was a tape bomb out of ECB's Stark saying they won't sweep in to save Greece, and the Euro's been moving hard both ways since. The medium term technicals still point towards a resumption of the retracement higher on EUR/USD, but this fundamental development could be enough to derail that, we'll have to see.

In stocks, the new year buying pressure has continued to prop up stocks as I mentioned yesterday, but it's not like there's a ton of upside from here. I'm staying on the sidelines until we get some technicals calling for a solid trade.

In news Wednesday:

0430 UK Services PMI (56.8 expected) - This news is pretty reliable. I expect it to at least move 40 pips if the triggers are hit.
If it comes out at 57.7 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 55.9 or lower, GBP/USd should fall 40 pips.

0815 US ADP Employment Change (-75K expected) - US reports are getting tricky with nothing but whipsaws so far this new year. My best guess is we'll see a USD move lead by the EUR/USD and GBP/USD if there's a decent surprise.
If it comes out at 0 or positive, EUR/USD should fall 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -150K or lower, EUR/USD should rally 30-40 pips.

1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing - Given recent trading on similar reports, I recommend skipping this one.

1930 AU Retail Sales - (0.3% expected) - Typically retail sales figures out of Australia tend to jolt the market very hard in the first minute, then consolidate for 10-30 minutes before either continuing or reversing. It seems like the best opportunity is in that initial surge if you can get in at the beginning or time a reversal near the extreme.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips very quickly.
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, AUd/USD should fall 40-50 pips very quickly.


That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
 
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Rubin Hood

Private
Messages
29
I distinctly remember that the ECB has already said before that they won't bail out Greece (or probably any other Euro nation). It happened a couple of days before or after Christmas. Interesting how that works out -- people react to news completely differently at times.

Was it more official this time? Or does an announcement only count as serious when it's *repeated*? :)
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
I distinctly remember that the ECB has already said before that they won't bail out Greece (or probably any other Euro nation). It happened a couple of days before or after Christmas. Interesting how that works out -- people react to news completely differently at times.

Was it more official this time? Or does an announcement only count as serious when it's *repeated*? :)
I just think more people were paying attention this time and it was said in a more stern manner. Also, it's coming on the heels of some credit agency downgrades of Greece.
 
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