Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
Well, the forecast I've been pitching on the EUR/USD since late December has nearly played out. We fell just short of my EUR/USD target of 1.4568 by about 12 pips, so it's definitely possible that the EUR/USD has finished it's countertrend retracement phase (wave 4 high); however, I still feel the odds are we'll see at least one more push to new retracement highs, so I have yet to enter a long term position trade short just yet. My plan is to get short for a long term trade between 1.4568 and 1.4676 with about a 200 pip SL. If we don't get another thrust up soon and the downside trend shows clear confirmation that it has resumed, then I'll look for a "better late than never" type short.
In the meantime, shorter term, I think a long from here makes sense and could survive with a relatively tight SL. Right now I see the EUR/USD at 1.4475 and think a 20-30 pip SL gives it a tradable chance for a bounce to new retracement highs and good risk/reward. It's not the best trade in the world but worth taking in my opinion, so I just entered it.
In news, we have 2 items to look forward to Wednesday:
0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (0.3% expected) - This indicator has had 2 straight months of lackluster moves on smaller 0.4-0.5 deviations, and while it's very likely this month could be different, I think it's best to play this safe and look for something a bit larger to trade it.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips.
1930 AU Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (10K and 5.8% expected) - When there's a proper deviation, this number tends to create a very sharp 50+ pip move that usually peaks out within the first 1-3 minutes. The best chance to capitalize on this is to trade the spike, or find some other way to get in quickly within 20-30 pips of the prerelease price. This trade rarely provides good opportunities for a retracement trade and also rarely extends into a trend. Usually it will react sharply then get stuck in a fairly tight range afterwards.
If it comes out at 30K or higher (and UR at 5.8% or lower), AUD/USD should rally 50 pips.
If it comes out at -10K or lower (and UR at 5.8% or higher), AUD/USD should fall 50 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
Well, the forecast I've been pitching on the EUR/USD since late December has nearly played out. We fell just short of my EUR/USD target of 1.4568 by about 12 pips, so it's definitely possible that the EUR/USD has finished it's countertrend retracement phase (wave 4 high); however, I still feel the odds are we'll see at least one more push to new retracement highs, so I have yet to enter a long term position trade short just yet. My plan is to get short for a long term trade between 1.4568 and 1.4676 with about a 200 pip SL. If we don't get another thrust up soon and the downside trend shows clear confirmation that it has resumed, then I'll look for a "better late than never" type short.
In the meantime, shorter term, I think a long from here makes sense and could survive with a relatively tight SL. Right now I see the EUR/USD at 1.4475 and think a 20-30 pip SL gives it a tradable chance for a bounce to new retracement highs and good risk/reward. It's not the best trade in the world but worth taking in my opinion, so I just entered it.
In news, we have 2 items to look forward to Wednesday:
0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (0.3% expected) - This indicator has had 2 straight months of lackluster moves on smaller 0.4-0.5 deviations, and while it's very likely this month could be different, I think it's best to play this safe and look for something a bit larger to trade it.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips.
1930 AU Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (10K and 5.8% expected) - When there's a proper deviation, this number tends to create a very sharp 50+ pip move that usually peaks out within the first 1-3 minutes. The best chance to capitalize on this is to trade the spike, or find some other way to get in quickly within 20-30 pips of the prerelease price. This trade rarely provides good opportunities for a retracement trade and also rarely extends into a trend. Usually it will react sharply then get stuck in a fairly tight range afterwards.
If it comes out at 30K or higher (and UR at 5.8% or lower), AUD/USD should rally 50 pips.
If it comes out at -10K or lower (and UR at 5.8% or higher), AUD/USD should fall 50 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
