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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 11-03-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Nov 2, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey everybody,

    Welcome to the new home for my daily signals. We may start to take a slightly different approach with them over time, but they'll still be packed with market information which I'm confident will help your trading. For easy access to these signals, please bookmark the link for the signals folder:
    Sir Pipsalot's Daily Trading Signals - Forex Peace Army Forum

    Outlook Summary:
    Roughly the same for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Silver & Stocks:
    Longer term: SHORT with entry opportunities now, or a bit higher from here.
    Shorter term: Uncertain... potential for either direction or rangebound. A bit more bearish GU and bullish EU short term.

    On EU and GU, the bottoms I saw formed on both pairs heading into Monday worked ok on GU but much better on EUR/USD which missed my 1.4850 profit target by about 4 pips. The GU's been tough to trade so far this week, so if you leave it alone with a bit wider TP and tighter SL, chances are it will hit the SL before the TP no matter which way you take the trade. Here I think the clear opportunity is short with a long term perspective. The short term looks more bearish for GU and a bit more bullish for EU. The GBP just has some strong sellers during the European session that are very tough to keep at bay, even with the very positive UK Manf PMI data last night. It's only a somewhat tentative bias though. I'm pretty much neutral across the board short term.

    Gold has managed to rally into an area (right now at 1064) where it may be a decent sell, but as I mentioned yesterday, I strongly prefer to be short Silver instead of Gold, and with the clean break of the 78% retracement, Gold may attempt another high while Silver underperforms. Right now Silver is still shy of the $17.00 to $17.30 range I identified that might make a good short, so I'm waiting for the better price to get in.

    Stocks yesterday worked short term higher as I expected, but fell short of my 1055-1060 profit target and turned lower. I saw this as further confirmation and decided to start entering more of my stock short position trade in the low 1030's, leaving about 40% of my planned entry still on the table. It looks like the confirmation was more of a fakeout at least from a short term perspective, as we've now crawled up into the low 1040's. At this point, it's not a question of IF I want in, it's a question of where, so I'll probably enter the last 40% of my planned stock position trade short sometime Tuesday or Wednesday (hoping for more of a bounce). Just to reiterate, I think this stock selloff could be quite huge (20-70%) and I'm planning to invest heavily in it.

    In news Monday, UK Manf PMI came in MUCH higher than expected and we saw a very nice move on GBP/USD good for 40 pips right away and some gradual continuation for 75 pips higher. I was cautious about trading the US ISM Manufacturing number as I wanted to see it perform well first, but I did say a 1.5 deviation could still be worth it. It actually had quite an amazing move on a +2.7 trigger hitting 110 pip on the EUR/JPY in 5 minutes. I guess it's back on our radar for sure now =P Also, AUD/USD was a no trade, but the risky sell opportunity on a small hike as expected panned out quite well with 60 pips fairly quickly and follow-through after the retracement. In news Tuesday:

    1930 AU Retail Sales m/m (0.5% expected) - Look out from any conflicts with the Retail Sales Ex Inflation q/q number (-0.5% expected) to be safe.
    If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips or more
    If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips or more


    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Nov 2, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2009
  2. bilalh11

    bilalh11 Recruit

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    regarding your signals

    hey sir pips, i've been following your signals for a while now and i must say you are the master so far. i learned alot from you and continue to learn as i improve my skills.

    i have a private question for you. is there a way i send you a private msg.
     
  3. mekino1000

    mekino1000 Recruit

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    I Truly Appreciate, Thanks Sir Pips!!

    Thanks so much, keep up the good job :)
     
  4. bhasspoken

    bhasspoken Recruit

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    Times

    Helo Sir Pips

    AS i am new to this forum i can see how good you are, the problem i have is i live in England and would like to know the time dif. so when you post for dif. news are you posting New York times ? can you please let me know so i can tranlate to UK time zone.

    Kind regards
    Glen
     
  5. Sir A.Dib!

    Sir A.Dib! Recruit

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    hi Sir pips a lot,

    I have been following your predictions and found it really amazing so far. Would you recommend a reference or a website to make me a master just like you?

    thanks.
    Sir A.Dib
     
  6. JasonB

    JasonB Recruit

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    NewB

    I see EU has broken 1.4680. Hw does this impact your short term view?:) On to 1.45 or a bounce from here?

    Thanks
     
    #6 JasonB, Nov 3, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2009
  7. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    Go to the FPA economic news calender and synchronise the time zone with yours i.e GMT. You can find the calender here:

    Forex news trading calendar with economic events analysis and currency exchange charts

    Click on "Time Adjust" at the top right side of the table and choose GMT then click apply. The time at the top of the calender should then be in synch with your local time. You will see all the tradeable news announcements SirPipsalot trades, failing that just deduct 5 hours from New York time (where he is based).
     
  8. bhasspoken

    bhasspoken Recruit

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    Time zone

    Thankyou for your reply
    Kind regards
    Glen
     
  9. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    No problem, just one other thing.... I meant to say just ADD 5 hours to New York (Eastern Standard Time) not deduct.
     
  10. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    You've found it..... you're here :)
     

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