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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 11-04-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Nov 4, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Outlook Summary:
    Roughly the same as it has been all week for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Silver & Stocks:
    Longer term: SHORT with entry opportunities now, or a bit higher from here.
    Shorter term: Uncertain... potential for either direction or rangebound.

    Check out my 2 other recent signals for more in depth reasoning and views on the current trend. Essentially my outlook is somewhat the same although there is potential for the EU and GU to work back up above 1.4800 and 1.6550 respectively. I think if that happens, both would be nice sells somewhere nearby above those levels.

    As you know, I'm already short in a fairly aggressive position trade. I'm adding in the final bit of my allotted risk now. If you're looking to be more precise, I think as with the EU and GU, we may see the S&P cash trade into the 1050 to 1065 range where it might be a better sell with a tighter SL, but I've gotten a bit impatient and decided to just finish my stock entry so I can set that aside and focus on more currency opportunities over the coming days and weeks until we work below 1000 and can identify some TP levels.

    The news continues to get peculiar overreactive spikes lately, so naturally a moderate negative surprise on AU Retail Sales Tuesday caused a hyperactive 80 pip 1 minute spike that couldn't hang on. Looks like news is heating up boys. In news Wednesday:

    0428 UK Services PMI (55.5 expected) - I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that even a small deviation on this should have a 40 pip move on GBP/USD with the news volatility we've seen lately. A typical healthy move on UK news like this will peak out after 2-5 minutes, potentially pull back a decent 38-50% or more, then reload for another push to new extremes and beyond. Typically the follow-through tends to sputter out around 40 minutes (give or take 5 minutes) after news if it develops.
    If it comes out at 56.0 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
    If it comes out at 55.0 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips.

    0815 US ADP (-198K expected) and 1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing (51.5 expected) -- Both of these indicators have been somewhat disappointing lately, but US indicators have been making a nice comeback on yen crosses. At this point, I don't think you even need a big deviation to get a tradable move on EUR/JPY, so I wouldn't focus so much on triggers to buy or sell. Just look for strength on higher than expected numbers and weakness on lower than expected numbers on both and see if you can catch the wave.

    1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Statement (no change at 0-0.25% expected) - Well, compared to having actual rate decision controversy as we do with some countries makes watching US interest rates seem confusing to say the least. You need to be able to read into the commentary and gauge the market reaction. If you want a lot more detail on this one, check out DailyFx's write-up on it. They cover just about every angle:

    DailyFX - EUR/USD: Trading the Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

    One good strategy they use is to let the EUR/USD finish a 5 minute bar close bearish or bullish, then get in the direction of that move. I've used this strategy before and it usually pays off. Again, if you're interested, there's plenty of writeup in there on it.


    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Ezzy

    Ezzy Recruit

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    1st live news trade. I entered a bit late, but managed 20 pips. Thanks Sirpips!!

    Ezzy


    ps.now price starting to set up nicely for a short (long term).
     
  3. DTruth

    DTruth Recruit

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    The EU seems to be hitting a hard resistance on my trend line around 1.4768!
    Could this be a bounce to sell off or it could still hit our 1.4800 38% fib b4 the sell off??????????????
     
  4. Paul Simeons

    Paul Simeons Recruit

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    I decided to trade the ADP non farm announcement today.
    Still in the trade up 42 pips from 1.4797 eur/usd. :D
     
  5. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I decided to get into some swing trades short on EU, GU, AU around 1.4885, 1.6584, and 0.9134 with fairly tight 15-30 pip SL's above the near 1500 EST highs. Looking for 30-50 pips initially and 100-250 ultimately on each.
     
  6. Sir A.Dib!

    Sir A.Dib! Recruit

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    story!

    Hi Sir,

    I'm interested in knowing what happened today just for educational purposes.
    thanks
     
  7. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

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    Any signals for 11-5? Wondering your take on the EUR/USD after today's announcments.
     
  8. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I'm typing it right now. Just doing it a bit late since I needed to catch up on some sleep.
     

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