Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 11-11-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Just a quick short update today as we're still in somewhat of a wait and see mode. The bounce on EU and GU may be topping out for a turn lower, but we'll need to see stocks top out as well to get things moving. We didn't really get any clear inidication one way or another on Tuesday, so we'll need another day for things to clear up more. I am starting to tilt over into abandoning shorts and flipping long, but I'm not fully convinced yet.

In news Wednesday:

0430 UK Claimant Count Change (20K expected) - This number usually pushes the GBP/USD around fairly nicely, but it's coming out an hour before the BoE Inflation report which could pose problems. I'd look for a +/- 10K trigger to trade this (higher is a sell, lower is a buy). I'd expect 30-40 pips, but you'll want to get out before the report at 0530.

0530 BoE Inflation Report - Here we'll get some insight into future monetary policy biases going forward from the BoE. I have a sneaky feeling this report will highlight some inflationary pressures and be somewhat bullish based on commentary from their interest rate statement last week. Typical speech setup where hawkishness will lead to strength, and dovishness will lead towards weakness for the GBP/USD, but it's hard to quantify and preview precisely.

1645 NZ Retail Sales - I don't like the release coming out at then end of a US Banking holiday. I doubt we'll see that good of a trade here, so I'm skipping it.

1930 AU Employment Change (-10K expected) - A 15K deviation should be enough to move the AUD/USD 40 pips. More of a move on something much larger is possible as well.
If it comes out at 5K or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -25K or lower, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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Hello Sir Pipsalot,
this is my first reply to one of your posts, but I have been reading for about a month. I find it rather irritating that the Forex market has been influenced so much by the American stockmarket for most of this year. I have long ago abandoned fundamentals as the stockmarket studiously ignores them. Obviously fundamentals do have a temporary influence on the Forex market as your "trading the news" predictions prove.
I have more faith in the German Dax as an indicator as I believe that Germany does have an economy, unlike the British and American economy that is supported by unthinkable levels of debt. Yes I know that I am contradicting myself as this belief is based on fundamentals that I have just said that I have abandoned.
The Dax, unlike the Dow and S&P has made recent lower lows, this is the first sign of any sort or bearishness since March. At this moment the Dax is at 61.8% retracement from its recent low compared to the recent high. If the Dax fails to break through this level and starts to go down, I would not want to be long with EUR-USD. If the Dax does mange to breach it's recent highs, then I would have to look at a long position, but for the moment I will stay out and continue to look for shorting opportunities.
BTW - spot on the other day re ZEW, you decided not to trade it and you were right. When the figures were released the EUR-USD fell 20 pips immediately, traders may have been tempted to jump on the short, but it actually turned and went on to a higher day high.


hi stuff man

Sirpipsalot I am so glad to discover you again haven missed you for long in my email box.your signals did wonders 2 weeks ago.more power to your elbow.


pipsalot, reply

hello mr pipsalot,
i have sent you 3 different eamils at but there was no reply. i think i deserve a word at least from you or any of you representatives.
stephens (