Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
The long term downwards bias we've held over the past few weeks remains somewhat intact while the markets sort themselves out near these highs. Each swing in the markets shorter term has been met with indecision and resistance, so I'm refraining from updating the specifics on the trend outlook until the picture clears up more on currencies.
Stocks did make a new recovery high today though and it looks like we've got a bit more up-down left to do with stocks before the rally is over and the next long term wave of the bear market begins. It looks like the S&P 500 should rally to about 1120 before topping out, so a good short to medium term strategy would be to buy on any dips in stocks. Longer term, if you're short and can survive a run to around 1120, I'd hold. If you're nimble enough to get out on a small dip and get back in at a higher level, consider doing that.
In news Wednesday, nearly hitting our triggers on UK Claimant Count Change produced a pretty solid move, and the BoE Inflation report was all over the map with a whipsaw, and from watching the action, I think there was some form of market manipulation or intervention to make the report seem more dovish (it was actually somewhat hawkish) than it was by causing a sharp market selloff. There's no news due out Thursday, but there is a report worth trading early Friday morning that I'll preview:
0200 EST (Friday) German GDP q/q (0.8% expected) - This report should move EUR/USD about 40 pips. Sometimes the move is a bit more gradual with half coming quickly, and then follow-through for awhile after.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.4% or lower, EUR/USD should fall 40 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
The long term downwards bias we've held over the past few weeks remains somewhat intact while the markets sort themselves out near these highs. Each swing in the markets shorter term has been met with indecision and resistance, so I'm refraining from updating the specifics on the trend outlook until the picture clears up more on currencies.
Stocks did make a new recovery high today though and it looks like we've got a bit more up-down left to do with stocks before the rally is over and the next long term wave of the bear market begins. It looks like the S&P 500 should rally to about 1120 before topping out, so a good short to medium term strategy would be to buy on any dips in stocks. Longer term, if you're short and can survive a run to around 1120, I'd hold. If you're nimble enough to get out on a small dip and get back in at a higher level, consider doing that.
In news Wednesday, nearly hitting our triggers on UK Claimant Count Change produced a pretty solid move, and the BoE Inflation report was all over the map with a whipsaw, and from watching the action, I think there was some form of market manipulation or intervention to make the report seem more dovish (it was actually somewhat hawkish) than it was by causing a sharp market selloff. There's no news due out Thursday, but there is a report worth trading early Friday morning that I'll preview:
0200 EST (Friday) German GDP q/q (0.8% expected) - This report should move EUR/USD about 40 pips. Sometimes the move is a bit more gradual with half coming quickly, and then follow-through for awhile after.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.4% or lower, EUR/USD should fall 40 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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