Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 11-25-2009 (last of the week)

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

In typical holiday week fashion, we've seen ranges carved out in many markets without any major breaks in either direction. Typically, before Thanksgiving the USD is weak and the stock market is optimistic and strong, so we may end up having a bit of holiday market euphoria Wednesday. As I said earlier in the week, long term positions should whether this potential storm, but shorter term players need to consider bailing playing the ranges with a bit of an upside bias for a day or two.

In news Tuesday, we saw Norway GDP, US GDP, and US Consumer Confidence all come out too close to expected for much of a tradable reaction. Wednesday is essentially the last news trading day of the week:

0430 UK Prelim GDP 3Q (-0.3% expected) - UK GDP has a habit of reacting hard on bigger deviations, and moderately on smaller ones. Usually only the advance reading has a nice chance at hitting big deviations though. Nevertheless, a 0.2 surprise here should move the GBP while a 0.4 deviation could get things really cookin'
If it comes out at -0.1% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.

0830 US Core Durable Goods, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Initial Jobless Claims - Obviously there are a lot of smaller reports coming out of the US at 0830 EST this morning. Any one of them could steal the spotlight, so in this case, too much data makes it a bit too confusing to trade confidently.

1000 US New Home Sales - We saw big news on Existing Home sales trade like trash due to NAR leaks, so during a NY session a day before Thanksgiving merely days after a pathetic post-news reaction to EHS data, I'd say this is a skipper as well.

As I mentioned yesterday, there will be no signal released for Thursday or Friday as I will be taking those days off to celebrate Thanksgiving with my family. Norway GDP had an underwhelming reaction so, I'd end up skipping Swedish GDP on Friday even if I was trading Friday. Things will really start heating up next week though as the first week of a new month brings a lot of news items to the table and a lot of post-holiday trading volume. Until then!

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot