Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-02-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Well, we're stuck in a bit of a range waiting game here waiting for a clearer break on both stocks and the EUR/USD. Longer term I'm still convinced there will be a major downside development, but the short to medium term picture could head either way. Until stocks break up through their 1113 highs though, I think we're in an area of resistance that is likely to favor sells versus buys from a risk/reward standpoint in both markets. I'll have more to say about the trend once things start to look more actionable to me.

In news Tuesday, we saw bad UK Manf PMI put a hiccup in the GU uptrend good for 45 pips down over 15 minutes, while US news saw a conflict with the ISM Manf coming in low, while pending home sales came in high. As I expected, the ISM number was a bit more important on the USD/JPY, but the conflict clouded up the picture enough to warrant staying out in my opnion. In news Wednesday:

0815 US ADP Employment (-150K expected) - This trade isn't always a great one, but based on what I saw with ISM today I think it may be worth a shot on USD/JPY with a 50K trigger.
If it comes out at -100K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30+ pips.
If it comes out at -200K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30+ pips.

1930 AU Retail Sales (0.3% expected) - Aussie Retail Sales is a bit of a tough trade to make money on because most of the move happens in the first minute, so I'd limit my exposure to this one to spike trading only.
If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 30-50 pips quickly.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, AUD/USD should fall 30-50 pips quickly.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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In news Tuesday, we saw bad UK Manf PMI put a hiccup in the GU uptrend good for 45 pips down over 15 minutes
That news was released at 9-30 AM wasn't it? GU was 1.6520 when the news was announced. By the time I could place a trade it was 1.6508 and bottomed at 1.6496 (99 ask) before climbing again. So a max of 21 pips if it was possible to place the trade quick enough.
I lost a bit on this one unfortunately - but that's life and trading :)