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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-10-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Dec 10, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Dec 11, 2007
    Likes Received:
    Hey folks,

    It looks like the EUR/USD may have put in a multi-day bottom after consolidating around the 1.4700 figure for the past 36 hours. While a shorter term long from these levels (1.4717 right now) may see some upside, the EUR/USD has shown a tendency to reignite and extend further, so tread cautiously with any longs. If a bounce does develop though, I think a rally back into the 1.4800 to 1.4900 range would provide a good opportunity for a position trade short as discussed earlier this week.

    The stock picture short term looks a bit muddy as there are potentials for moves in either direction over the next day or two. My recommended TP of 1084 was just missed by 1 point in early trading, and now we sit around 1090. If you're in a short to medium term short, I would take some profits now in case we turn higher here into the end of the week. However, keep some in in case we do break lower. Right now a break below 1077 would significantly increase the odds that a multi-week decline is just getting started. From a long term perspective, continue to ignore the day to day noise and hold short.

    In news Wednesday, we saw NZ keep rates unchanged, but indicate they're looking to raise rates around mid 2010, and the market saw that as quite bullish and NZD/USD rallied 90-140 pips. AU Employment and Unemployment Rate both came out better than expected leading to a nice 65 pip rally on AUD/USD. In news Thursday:

    0700 UK Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% unanimously expected) - There is no real chance the BoE will move rates here. They will likely release a statement though with a few comments on their outlook for the economy and on their quantitative easing. They're expected to keep their Asset Purchase Facility (APF) at 200B.
    If the BOE is optimistic about the future and/or hints at future removal of stimulus such as the APF, GBP/USD should rally.
    If the BOE is pessimistic about the future and/or expands or hints at a future expansion of their APF beyond 200B, the GBP/USD should weaken.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot

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