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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-11-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Dec 11, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have established multiday lows and are set for further potential retracement upwards. A retracement somewhere around 1.4850 would be enough for a position trade short, although potential exists for something a bit deeper around 1.4950. This gives potential for a short term long today, but it's definitely not guaranteed.

    Stocks ended up recovering a bit and as with yesterday, the short term could go either way, medium to long term holding short is the way to go. It's a pretty good spot for entry short here (1100.50 on S&P futures) for a medium to long term short trade as we talked about earlier in the week.

    In news Thursday, the BoE interest rates came out as expected with no big surprises in the brief statement, so there were no opportunities there. In news Friday:

    0430 UK PPI - This news comes out of the woodwork once or twice a year to post a good trade, but I don't think it's worthy of focus at this time.

    0830 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos (0.4% expected) - Keep in mind we'll need agreement from the headline and Ex Auto & Gas numbers for a safe trade. Much like with US NFP, the reaction on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD can get tricky and even whipsaw in the other direction, while the move on the USD/JPY is much more likely to hold up and continue.
    If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.


    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. cosmopolit

    cosmopolit Private

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    Your opinion on US Core Retail Sales was useful. Thank you.
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    No problem. As expected the move on USD/JPY held up gradually for 90 pips! EUR/USD and GBP/USD actually whipsawed into a deep selloff even on the good news... so both predictions worked well.
     

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