Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-18-2009

Hey folks,

Well, the EUR/USD did extend lower a bit more on Thursday but there are some signs that the countertrend bounce higher may be starting. The medium term is a bit uncertain at this point, but a rally up through the 1.4420-25 area should confirm that a countertrend rally is underway that should take prices at least to the 1.4600 area (38% retrace) before the trend resumes. My plan for a short to medium term trade is to buy a dip in EUR/USD after it pushes through 1.4425 if it's able to do so. Long term however, the best idea is to wait for this countertrend rally to mature and short it when it starts to turn lower.

Stocks did reward our short position yesterday with some weakness, but not enough to really get out with much profit yet. I'm still holding my short from about 1099 yesterday on ESH10 (S&P500 futures). We could see some sideways activity, but the highs on Wednesday are likely to hold and I retain a downwards bias.

In news Thursday, we saw UK Retail Sales come in quite low and the GBP/USD not only went down, but broke through support and went into meltdown mode. In the Profit Mongers room, we sold a few minutes after the report on retracement and rode it down for a decent gain. Usually UK news only keeps it's push for 30-60 minutes, but with the big support break, the move took 80 minutes to bottom at 145 pip move... wow. In news Friday:

0400 German IFO Business Climate - This indicator hasn't performed very well lately and I think is not worth trading. News-wise, I'm done for the week and the next trade we'll preview is CAD Retail Sales on Monday 12-21.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot