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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-22-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Dec 22, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are attempting yet another bottoming out process, but it's probably best not to buy in to anything like this too much unless it confirms more concretely. See yesterday's signal: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...psalots-daily-market-update-12-21-2009-a.html for more on medium term strategy on the EUR/USD (can be applied to the GBP/USD as well). There's also a nice blurb in there about holiday market liquidity that's worth a read.

    Stocks pushed noticably higher today and while still in the same range the S&P has been in for over a month now, it does look like we might have a end of the year push to slight new highs on stocks. As I said yesterday, we'll have to see how it looks when it gets there, but it looks like a short around 1120-1125 could play out quite nicely.

    In news Monday, CAD Retail Sales came out very close to expectations, so there was no opportunity there. In news Tuesday though, things may heat up:

    0430 UK GDP q/q final (-0.1% expected) - The last time we had a decent deviation on a final revision in June 2009, we got a quick 40 pip 1 minute reaction, followed by a full retracement over 30 minutes, then a trend lower for about 2 hours reaching 80 pips.
    If it comes out at 0.1% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.

    0830 US GDP 3Q Annualized final revision (2.8% expected) - This one is very likely to be hit or miss, meaning we'll get a nice obvious reaction, or we'll get almost nothing. The triggers are assuming we get a "hit" on the price action, but if it's obvious things aren't moving significantly after a minute or two, I suggest getting out and assume the market's going to continue to ignore the news.
    If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at 2.3% or higher, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

    1000 US Existing Home Sales (6.25M expected) - This trade may only be good for a 15-25 pip short term move on USD/JPY, but it may set a tone of risk appetite or risk aversion for the session felt even more on stocks than on currencies. This might be best traded with a 1-2 hour swing trade on the USD/JPY immediately after the release or on a decent retracement after the release.
    If it comes out at 6.50M or higher, USD/JPY should retain a bullish bias for 1-2 hours.
    If it comes out at 5.99M or lower, USD/JPY should retain a bearish bias for 1-2 hours.

    1645 NZ GDP q/q (0.4% expected) - I will probably be skipping this due to some family commitments, but like US EHS earlier, it's likely to be a hit or miss kind of trade. With the release time right before the NY close, it could end up getting ignored, so don't hold out too long if it's just not catching on. Alternatively, the distracted focus may give you more time to get in on the action before it potentially pushes hard. Good luck on this one.
    If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 30-40 pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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