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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 2-1-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Feb 1, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD has continued lower and is likely to head as low as 1.3800, but this decline is very mature, so make sure to take partial profits if you've gotten into a profitable short. One way to spot a decent sign of a bottom here is to watch the 50 SMA on the hourly chart. One look there and you'll see that this has contained the downmove since Tuesday the 26th. If we break above the 50 SMA, we're probably not going to see a whole lot more downside, so that would be a good area to trail an SL on a short, or to flip your bias to neutral/long short term.

    EUR/GBP has indeed rallied from the 0.8645 area where I recommended a long early on Friday. As always, try to take some partial profits, trail your SL up a bit, and look for a final TP somewhere between 0.8765 to 0.8795.

    Stocks continue to whipsaw around giving traders trouble in both directions. My instincts were correct on Friday where I made a controversial call for a false breakout bounce from around 1073 on the futures. They traded as high as 1093 in NY before turning sharply to slight new lows and are now back at 1073. Honestly, I still feel like we're close to a bottom that will last 1-2 weeks and lead to some churning retracement. Retracements are notoriously tough to trade short term though, because by the time they're obviously confirmed they're almost over, heh. The safer bet is to wait for them to come to you and use them to get back in line with the trend which is short. Again, I like a short around the 1100-1110 area for now with this in mind.

    In news Friday, US GDP came in much better than expected and USD/JPY managed to gain 50 pips quicky and 60 pips in just over an hour which was right inline with our targets. Chicago PMI beat estimates but was a non-factor as anticipated. In news Monday:

    0430 UK Manf PMI (53.9 expected) - In the last two months, we've seen triggers around 2-2.1 get a modest reaction here, but nothing to quite write home about. You can trade tighter triggers of 1.5-2 if you'll be happy with a 20-30 pip move, but I'd rather play it safe and hold out for something a bit more rare that has more like 40-50 pip potential.
    If it comes out at 56.4 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 50 pips.
    If it comes out at 51.4 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 50 pips.

    0830-1000 US Data - Honestly, none of these coming up today been particularly noteworthy or tradable for many months. I don't think any are important enough to warrant a forecast. As with any small indicators though, if you're already trading, keep an eye on them just in case.

    2230 RBA AU Interest Rate Decision (0.25% hike to 4.00% unanimously expected) - I was hoping for a bit more controversy here, but at least we have a clear cut trade where there's a chance at a surprise without having to dig into the statement itself.
    If they hike 0.50% or more, AUD/USD should rally 70+ pips.
    If they keep rates unchanged, AUD/USD should fall 50+ pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. DTruth

    DTruth Recruit

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    Thanks Sir

    I went in long on EUR/GBP just as you said on friday and i took profit at 0.87650.
    You are the man.
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Yep, that trade worked out ideally. I'm a bit more neutral now on EUR/GBP though.

    By the way guys, I got hammered with some personal life stuff today, and there's no key news tomorrow, so I've skipped writing the signal for tonight. I'll have a complete rundown tomorrow though. Good luck trading!
     
  4. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Thanks for everything, and wishing you the best SP!
     

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