Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
Instead of having new threads with every update, since I most closely follow the EUR/USD, I will keep all EUR/USD thread analysis in this thread and update it when needed. This is mainly for medium to longer term trades, but short term stuff comes up as well. My analysis from 11-22, 12-2, and 12-6 are still quite valid, so I will start with that and build off of it. This top post I will edit to keep current, while replies to this thread will show a chronological presentation of analysis:
My current position trade initially entered short EUR/USD at 1.3750 on Sunday 11-21, some profit taken, and resold more with limit orders around 1.3300 and 1.3400 on Friday 12-3 and Tuesday 12-7. My final TP currently stands around 1.2480, although I may change that with a future update. Read the posts below to catch up on my trade and my analysis of the EUR/USD to learn the context for future updates.
Quick EUR/USD update 12-14:
We saw a rally and clear break up through the top of the wedge for a breakout long, but it looks a lot more like a short squeeze to me than a reversal. I expect as the week pushes on that the rally will fizzle and turn lower, so it's a good price to sell into the rally (1.3350 and up) from a position trading standpoint, but for short to medium term trades, I'd hold off until after the FOMC statement later today.
EUR/USD analysis (tipping point) Update Sunday 12-12-2010:
Right now the EUR/USD is coiled up pretty tightly after last week's rangebound action. We've sold off from the 1.3280-1.3380 sell range from last week (now 1.3197) and have worked into a wedge on the hourly chart. A break to the south of the blue line (see chart below) should see at least 50 pips lower to the pink channel line. A break of the pink would mean a very likely selloff to either the red support line, or the Nov 30 lows around 1.2970, whichever comes first. Conversely, the upside risk grows with a break above the purple channel resistance line shown.
Any short to medium term trades or tigher SL short EUR/USD trade ideas are probably best putting a SL either just above 1.3283, or a bit above the purple resistance line shown (now 1.3245). Yellow lines are alternate options for sloping resistance, but I like the purple line best, while dotted yellow lines are key fibonacci levels.
As for new trades, I'd consider selling short term near yellow or purple sloping channel resistance, or on a clear breakout of blue or pink channel support. Since I'm already plenty short though, I'm going to focus on taking partial profits on my current long term trade which I will do next a bit above the pink support line.
Instead of having new threads with every update, since I most closely follow the EUR/USD, I will keep all EUR/USD thread analysis in this thread and update it when needed. This is mainly for medium to longer term trades, but short term stuff comes up as well. My analysis from 11-22, 12-2, and 12-6 are still quite valid, so I will start with that and build off of it. This top post I will edit to keep current, while replies to this thread will show a chronological presentation of analysis:
My current position trade initially entered short EUR/USD at 1.3750 on Sunday 11-21, some profit taken, and resold more with limit orders around 1.3300 and 1.3400 on Friday 12-3 and Tuesday 12-7. My final TP currently stands around 1.2480, although I may change that with a future update. Read the posts below to catch up on my trade and my analysis of the EUR/USD to learn the context for future updates.
Quick EUR/USD update 12-14:
We saw a rally and clear break up through the top of the wedge for a breakout long, but it looks a lot more like a short squeeze to me than a reversal. I expect as the week pushes on that the rally will fizzle and turn lower, so it's a good price to sell into the rally (1.3350 and up) from a position trading standpoint, but for short to medium term trades, I'd hold off until after the FOMC statement later today.
EUR/USD analysis (tipping point) Update Sunday 12-12-2010:
Right now the EUR/USD is coiled up pretty tightly after last week's rangebound action. We've sold off from the 1.3280-1.3380 sell range from last week (now 1.3197) and have worked into a wedge on the hourly chart. A break to the south of the blue line (see chart below) should see at least 50 pips lower to the pink channel line. A break of the pink would mean a very likely selloff to either the red support line, or the Nov 30 lows around 1.2970, whichever comes first. Conversely, the upside risk grows with a break above the purple channel resistance line shown.
Any short to medium term trades or tigher SL short EUR/USD trade ideas are probably best putting a SL either just above 1.3283, or a bit above the purple resistance line shown (now 1.3245). Yellow lines are alternate options for sloping resistance, but I like the purple line best, while dotted yellow lines are key fibonacci levels.
As for new trades, I'd consider selling short term near yellow or purple sloping channel resistance, or on a clear breakout of blue or pink channel support. Since I'm already plenty short though, I'm going to focus on taking partial profits on my current long term trade which I will do next a bit above the pink support line.
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