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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 04-02-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Apr 1, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    We have a pseudo-market holiday Friday with Good Friday coming, but Non-Farm Payrolls still being released. Quite honestly, I'm not sure whether we'll get crazy volatile price action, or rather tame holiday doldrums. We'll just have to see. On EUR/USD I'd manage any current longs to take advantage of a potential run up near 1.3800 medium term, but I wouldn't look for new swing trades right now with the strange trading day leaving a lot to be uncertain about.

    In news Thursday, most items came out as expected except US ISM Manufacturing came out pretty high, but unfortunately, the USD/JPY reacted with only a 25 pip or so move, which was shorter than I expected and tough to make much of anything on. In news Friday:

    0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (184K expected) - This is the first NFP in awhile that we're clearly expecting concrete positive figures, and the markets seem to be building on risk appetite heading into this scenario with stocks, commodities and yen crosses all doing well pretty much all week. My gut tells me we may be in for a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of situation where a lot of the buying buildup this week will decide to take profits even on a good number... it's a bit of a contrarian view, so take it with a grain of salt, but still... I'd bias myself towards short to medium term downpressure a bit after the initil news volatility regardless of the outcome. Watch out for Unemployment Rate too (expected at 9.7%). Any surprises there could be just as important, if not moreso, than the Employment figure.
    If it comes out at 250K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
    If it comes out at 100K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 50+ pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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