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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 07-02-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 2, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Dec 11, 2007
    Likes Received:
    Hey folks,

    ***I typed out my entire signal here last night, and forgot to click send, lol!!! I'm sorry about that. I was actually wrong on both of my trade ideas for EUR/USD though, so it's probably better that it wasn't sent out here on FXPA so you guys didn't get in on those losers. Anyways, here's what the signal was below:

    The EUR/USD had a strange, massive rally today that just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me given what other markets are up to. Usually I can find the root cause of such a move, but in this case I wasn't able to. In the meantime, I see it as a gift because now we can short EUR/USD near 1.2500 instead of near 1.2200. Even with NFP event risk, I think EUR/USD is a good short here at 1.2492 with a 60 pip SL, and 160 pip TP.

    I still feel AUD/JPY is a good position trade short as discussed yesterday as well (now at a better price at 74.38 as well).

    Stocks continue to be a good short opportunity so consider a long term short trade there as I discussed in yesterday's signal:


    More to come in future signals on stocks, but I'm just a bit tired and am trying to keep it brief tonight.

    In news Thursday, US ISM Manufacturing came in very low, but USD/JPY and EUR/JPY really didn't muster much of a selloff. AUD/JPY ironically made the best move actually. In news Friday:

    0830 US NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (-130K & 9.8% expected) - Estimates still range widely for this one (-250K to 0K), but not nearly as widely as last month. I expect a very whipsawed reaction on the EUR/USD, but a fairly straightforward trend on USD/JPY if we get a clear surprise.
    --If NFP comes out at -200K or lower (with unemployment rate 9.8 or higher), USD/JPY should drop 50 pips
    --If NFP comes out at -50K or higher (with unemployment rate 9.8 or lower), USD/JPY should rally 50 pips
    --If there is a conflict where unemployment rate comes out better, but employment change comes out worse (or vice versa), look to play volatility on the EUR/USD by buying dips and selling rallies expecting somewhat whipsawed price action.
    --With the big rally on EUR/USD Thursday, consider getting short soon and holding EUR/USD short into the NFP news release. Chances are yesterday's action has inspired a lot of shaky longs and they'll be looking to bail either leading into the NFP release or shortly afterwards, so EUR/USD could perform well if held short until a bit after the news.

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