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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 08-20-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Aug 20, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD managed to put in another bump up to 1.2900 for another resell and back down to 1.2800 today. There's been some nice range trading there. A break north of 1.2925 will probably mean another 100-180 pips higher from there, but as long as it holds, the medium term odds are still pointed lower. I remain overall short for the long term looking to TP in the 1.2420-1.2610 range.

    USD/JPY suffered through some bad US news today which got a lot more attention than it usually does, which caused a temporary dip. Thankfully the good ol' 85.00 support came into play and the long is still in play. If we get a more confirmed break lower through 84.80, the long I called yesterday is busted, but a solid break higher through 86.40 should see at least the 89.00's

    Stocks turned lower perfectly from my 1095-1105 sell region touching as low as 1068 on futures today. A break below 1066 will confirm we are in the next major selling phase that should see at least a test of 1000 and likely much lower before a significant bounce kicks in. At this point, I'd lower my resell area (if you're looking to get in short more... I'm short all I need to be atm) to around 1085.

    In news Thursday, we saw UK Retail Sales come out decently high across the board, but we had a ridiculously overpowered rally that gave very little retracement opportunities. If you just got long GBP/USD at any point, it was easy money, but the initial move was so strong it was hard to justify doing so safely. In the end, the rally was 150 pips over 90 minutes before any type of downwards action. In the US, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Index came out much worse than expected, and although they're not consistently tradable reports, both pushed USD/JPY lower by 30 pips over 5-15 mintues and stocks down by 1% each over 5-10 minutes. In news Friday:

    0700 CAD Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - This report should have enough juice on a an otherwise slow news day to push USD/CAD 40 pips or so initially, and or perhaps even more over the next 30-60 minutes after some retracement or consolidation. I would avoid trading it or at least exit early though if there's a strong conflict with the headline CPI (0.6% expected m/m).
    If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/CAD should drop 40 pips quickly and potentially down extend further.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40 pips quickly, and potentially down extend further.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Aug 20, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2010
  2. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey guys... it looks like just about everything mentioned this week is working out pretty nicely.

    Feel free to put any questions you guys have out there regarding how you're managing any of the trades from this week. UJ long, EU short, or stock short specifically. I assume not everyone gets the trades at the same time and place, so I think I've done a really good job of giving guidance in my signal, and in my trade calls allowing people to adapt their trades for a later entry, or a different style of TP/SL, etc.

    Just let me know if you have any questions specific to your situation and I'll let you know what I would do if I were in your shoes.
     
  3. Forexwatchman

    Forexwatchman Sergeant

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    Way to be Sir Pipsalot! Good to see you offering your input so freely. Keep up the good work!
     

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