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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 09-03-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Sep 3, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD continues to work out it's potential topping pattern, but a final thrust higher near 1.2900 is likely before a selloff, so I would consider shorting EUR/USD in the 1.2870-1.2910 range if it gets there Friday.

    USD/JPY is still a good short around 84.30 or higher as it plays a range and sets up hopefully for a selloff to new lows. See Thursday's signal for more on my USD/JPY trade.

    EUR/GBP has entered an area of resistance here above 0.8300 that may top it out for a few days. If you haven't already, I'd consider taking come partial profits. I still plan to hold out with my long through the volatility for a final run towards 0.8600 that should come after the pending retracement.

    Stocks managed to push a bit higher today but should be setting up for a multi-day high at the least. I'd look for jobs data to create some stock market volatility today, but ultimately top us out and point us lower into early next week. If you shorted recently in the 1070-80 range as I did, things still look fine at this point, but depending on the nature of price movement over the next 2 days, I may want to close early for a smaller than expected gain to be safe.

    In news Thursday, we saw Sweden hike interest rates as somewhat expected, but we still saw the 400 pips or so selloff we were looking for. I decided to hold EUR/SEK short based on some longer term breakout technicals as well and am looking for a selloff to 9.2300 - 9.2400 for now. Hopefully we'll get there by Monday. In news Friday:

    0428 UK Services PMI (52.9 expected) - This report is usually good for a solid 40 pip move and sometimes into a trend that will last the rest of the Euro session.
    If it comes out at 53.7 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips over 2-10 minutes.
    If it comes out at 52.1 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips over 2-10 minutes.

    0830 US NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (-105K expected and 9.6%) - EUR/USD is harder to predict on these reports, but USD/JPY seems to work like a champ just about every time. It'll rarely be the biggest mover, but it has the most reliability.

    --If NFP comes out at -170K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off about 50 pips in the first minute or two, then consolidate and eventually push further for 70-100 pips depending on the situation.

    --If NFP comes out at -40K or higher, USD/JPY should rally about 50 pips in the first minute or two, then consolidate and eventually push higher for 70-100 total pips depending on the situation.

    --If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.8% or higher, this will help push a low NFP number into a bigger, faster drop, while holding back a high NFP number's rally or even reversing it into 2-way action.

    --If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.4% or lower, this will help push a high NFP number into a bigger, faster rally, while holding back a low NFP number's sell off or event reversing it into 2-way rangebound action.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Sep 3, 2010
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2010

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