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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 09-10-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Sep 10, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The short on a bounce type bias for EUR/USD and GBP/USD paid off today as it looks like we're breaking lower as anticipated. I thought GBP/USD would have more trouble to the downside, but it seems to be progressed to my target fine. To reiterate, I'm anticipating a move below 1.2622 on the EUR/USD, possibly as low as 1.2522 before a potential bottom. On GBP/USD, yesterday I was looking for a floor near 1.5400, and now that we're here (1.5392 as I type), I'm a bit more neutral looking for this pattern to develop further.

    EUR/GBP I thought might be poised for a break lower, but it's looking more and more like a good buy near the bottom of sloping 4hr trendline support. I'm taking a long here around 0.8250 with a 50-70 pip SL looking for 90-340 pips TP.

    In stocks, I'm anticipating a turn lower today from this 1105 area and a break of 1095 will confirm that we should see at least a few days of downside. If we get bullish price action Friday instead, I'll be forced to reanalyze the medium term outlook on the S&P 500 and possibly make some changes to my long term trades... but for now I'm sitting tight.

    In news Thursday, we saw no surprises from the BOE on their Interest Rate Statement so no trade there. On Friday we have:

    0700 CAD Employment Change (30K expected) - Typically we'll see a 40-60 pip move initially if a trigger is hit, followed by some form of consolidation or retracement if the trigger is moderate, or rampant extention if the surprise is huge. Typically the total price movement we'll see is around 100 pips... so maybe 50 initially and another 50 over the next few hours. If we get a very large initial reaction of around 100 pips though, historically it has trouble continuing further after that.

    --If it comes out at 55K or higher, USD/CAD should fall 40-60 pips initially, then quite possibly regroup for another 40-60 pips downwards over 1-3 hours.

    --If it comes out at 5K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40-60 pips initially, then quite possibly regroup for another 40-60 pip rally over 1-3 hours.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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