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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 07-26-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 26, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD looks like it could go either way short term, so I'd look to take short term strategic trades like a 20 pip SL/TP sell at 1.2958 (78% retrace), or a similar buy around 1.2880, etc. Medium term though, as long as we don't break through last week's highs of 1.3025, we should top out and head lower to at least 1.2641. With recent risk appetite though, a potential break of 1.3025 is more likely, so any shorts should probably have their SL's tightened. I plan to keep the remainder of my short on from last week (tightening my stop though to 1.2980), but only take small trades playing off short term chart support and resistance (as I described with the above examples) until some clear momentum develops.

    USD/JPY no longer looks like a great short, so I plan to exit with a small loss here around the mid 87.00's. USD/JPY, risk appetite, and stocks have all retraced a bit higher than expected, and are likely to push higher near term before topping out and continuing the trend lower. Because of this, I think it's best to exit USD/JPY and yen crosses in general to set up for another shot short at a higher level.

    Stocks pushed slightly through 1102 resistance Friday, and it's enough for me to abandon the short bias for a bit now that the waveform is more clearly developed. If you look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (live or futures), there's a clear 5 waves down from the April high, and now a clear 3 waves up from the early July low. That puts us in wave C of 2 higher, and the most common topping point for such a retracement higher is the top of the previous 4th wave which is right around 1130. So, long story short, I would bail on any short to medium term trades short and look to get back in at a higher level around 1130. Long term though, 20-30 points isn't a big deal, so I'd just roll with it and stay short. Short term, I'd look to buy any 10+ point dips along the way here to trade along with the established upwards momentum.

    In news Friday, we saw UK GDP come in much higher than expected and a subsequent rally ensued covering over 100 pips over the course of 2-3 hours. I'm sorry I didn't put out a signal on Friday morning covering UK GDP, but I got a pretty nasty spider bite that put me in the hospital late last week, so I didn't even look at the markets late Thursday or Friday. I'm fine now though, so no worries. There's no key news worth trading Monday, but there are a couple of items on Tuesday, so look out for tomorrow's signal for coverage there.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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