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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 08-23-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Aug 23, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD managed a nice break lower Friday putting our Euro shorts in some solid profit, and while we may see a bit of retracement and consolidation, the window is open for the final push down to the 1.2420-1.2610 support region that I've been calling for for over a week now. In the meantime, for those looking for new trades, I would reiterate the "sell-on-rallies" approach and sell any decent 80-100 pip rallies, specifically just ahead of 1.2770 here on Monday if we can bounce high enough. A short from around there with a 40-80 pip SL should make at least 150 pips profit before the support region starts to come into play.

    On USD/JPY, unfortunately, the fundamental/sentimental support for a weak yen seems to have fizzled out here over the weekend as PM Kan and BOJ Gov Shirakawa finally did have their meeting, but it ended up being a mere phone call with no talk of forex intervention and no discussion of additional easing. My hope was that the build-up to this meeting would see plenty of JPY weakness, and perhaps something weakening would come out of the meeting, but with the risk aversion in markets late last week, the best JPY could do was merely hold its ground. As a result I'd prefer to exit USD/JPY long either here for a small loss (85.36 as I type), or after a bit of a bounce near break even (around 85.70)... my original SL was 89.65 so I think it's better to save the 70-100 pips rather than hope for a bounce based solely on technicals.

    In other developments, there's a lot of sentimental weakness weighing down the AUD right now from the uncertain federal elections this weekend. With no clear winner and both sides bringing in legal teams, the controversy and uncertainty is likely to last at least a few more days, and with it... likely weakness on AUD/USD. AUD/USD gapped down 65 pips at the Sunday open, but has since recovered 45+ pips of that. I plan to short AUD/USD here in the 0.8900 - 0.8940 region (now 0.8917) looking for a retest of early Sunday's lows at least, and possibly a break of Friday's lows into new downside territory if the USD starts to strengthen again and help out.

    Stocks saw a bit of downside Friday that ended up as mostly consolidation, and while we may see a bit of retracement higher, as with the Euro for new trades I'd be looking to sell into any decent bounces, especially around support-turned-resistance levels. off the hourly chart. A confirmed break and close below 1066 on the S&P 500 should bring follow-through selling down to at least 1000 and probably more like 950.

    In news Friday, we saw CAD Core CPI come in just low enough to hit our buy trigger, and we saw about 25 pips higher in the first 2 minutes, followed by a series of retracements and rallies that range traded from around prerelease to the spike extremes for several hours afterwards. There's no tradable economic numbers due out Monday, but the later on we will see a good number of smaller, but likely tradable and profitable reports littered throughout the week, and I'll do my best to give you all a good angle on them.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Aug 23, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2010
  2. MidnightRun

    MidnightRun Sergeant

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    Two questions, Sir Pips (since in one of your earlier posts Friday, I think, you invited your readers to ask questions):
    1. You indicated (Thursday or Friday) 1,085 as a sell zone for S&P . Do you feel the index may go that high any time in the near future - if it will, entering short now may be somewhat counterproductive.
    2. Australian - Do you feel the current (relative) weakness is temporary, or the pair is heading back to the 0.8100-0.8500 area where it came from a couple of weeks back?
    Thank you. (and should I also add that you have developed quite a following in this forum).
    Thanks again.
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    With regards to the S&P, just because I'm bearish, doesn't mean it's a good time to sell blindly. I prefer to time the market on shorts by selling on rallies as we did in the 1120-1130 region and more recently in the 1095-1105 region. When the trend is down, you can't be sure you get a bounce, but when you do, it sets up for a good short trade.

    With Regards to the AUD/USD, yes I am bearish, but it may take awhile to break support and head lower. My short trade today either barely held onto the stop and is now in profit, or ended up stopping out by a small amount depending on where you placed the SL. I do believe AUD should break last week's lows soon, but I am unsure how deep of a move we will get since the resolution of this election controversy should see bidders return.
     

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