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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 11-15-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Nov 15, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Ah, back after a nice break from the action. It looks like the EUR/USD played out post-FOMC like I had suspected all along... it turned into a selloff. The initial rally afterwards was indeed shortlived, and the EUR/USD looks poised for a more substantial selloff even after the 500-600 pips we've seen so far. I'm not in short yet though, as I am waiting/hoping for a bit more of a bounce up from here (currently 1.3675). My plan is to get short somewhere between 1.3760 and 1.3900 to position for a selloff down to the 1.3300's initially, 1.2800 eventually, with a small possibility of a complete reversal to new 2010 lows below 1.1890. I think there's enough chance of a further bounce today (Monday) to warrant waiting for a rally to get short. If that doesn't develop and we resume and sustain selling off below 1.3600 today, I'll take a fresh look at all options in Tuesday's signal.

    In news, there's one item worth our attention:

    0830 US Retail Sales Ex Autos (0.4% expected) - Unfortunately, it's been quite some time since we've seen a surprise here, with the last 2 tradable deviations coming in March and June. Since then, the character of US news moves has started to shift with the USD/JPY no longer as responsive on news as it used to be.

    Spike Strategy - I'd trade a 0.5 trigger looking for 40 pips on either USD/CHF or EUR/USD. We'll possibly see a larger, more momentous spike on a 1.0 trigger. The ES contract (S&P 500 futures) should see a 5+ point spike with a good chance for follow-through for a 10 point move within 5-10 minutes.

    Retracement Strategy - Retail Sales tends to offer pretty frequent retracements, so I'd look to get in if a trigger is hit after about a 50% retracement.

    If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, USD/CHF should rally 40 pips (EUR/USD down 40). ESZ10 should rally 5-10 points.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/CHF should drop 40 pips (EUR/USD up 40). ESZ10 should drop 5-10 points.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Vladon

    Vladon Private, 1st Class

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    Yeah, back after another absolutely misleading prediction!
    (This time on the NFP.) I was just occasionally late to follow
    it. Thank the God!

    So, personally, I am not interested in your predictions any more.
     
  3. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    still rude

    What are you still doing here, Vladon ?
     
  4. Vladon

    Vladon Private, 1st Class

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    I just went by and looked into to find out if a former
    navy officer will acknowledge his fault. And he again
    missed my expectation just deciding to pretend that
    everything went as he predicted. And that is the worst,
    in my opinion.
     
    #4 Vladon, Nov 16, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2010
  5. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    If you're not interested, please move on and don't trash talk on here. I did make a very bad call on NFP, and that was my mistake, but it happens and I'm not afraid to pick up after a loss and move forward in a positive direction. I didn't mention the NFP trade in this post because quite honestly, it was a short term opportunity from 2 weeks ago and I had moved on and forgotten about it and remain focused on the longer term trading opportunity I've been talking about for over a month on the EUR/USD.

    Anyways, I'm probably going to start doing something a little different with these signals to put them more in line with the type of trading I'm more engaged in moving forward. As I mentioned in the NFP post from a couple weeks back, I want to make sure anything I'm putting out here is worth your time to read, and worth considering applying to your trading. I'm not here to fill time by making sure there's a signal every day even when I don't have much to say, or to get as much exposure as I can to sell some product.

    My thinking right now is that I'll preview the news trades at the beginning of the week all at once, then post intermittent updates throughout the week when I feel there's something worth saying about the medium to long term trend on a pair, or if the situation for a particular news trade has changed since the weekly signal.

    Have my signals deteriorated? It depends on how you define that honestly. I'm not a former Navy officer, I'm a current Navy officer. The time I have available to spend trading and educating has definitely taken an increasing hit as my involvement with the Navy has ramped up, but that doesn't change the knowledge, insight and skill I have to offer as a trader and educator... just the amount of time I have to put into things. And quite honestly, the free signals are one of the first things I start to sacrifice when time management becomes pretty strained. I doubt you can blame me for that. I also don't feel too guilty since the other traders in our room, Magister Pips and Doug Ragan have really stepped up with their blogs and are really putting out some quality analysis.

    Right now my main focus is to finish my comprehensive trading education course. That is definitely a useful asset that can continue to help people once it's out no matter how much time I have available. It's really the culmination all of my efforts of leading trades and educating traders for the past 3+ years. I believe I have enough time to finish it before I'm forced into a much more rigorously limiting schedule sometime in January. I fear if I don't focus on it with a high priority right now, it may get pushed back beyond January and possibly wind up never getting done. Also, I want to be there for the trading room as much as I can to call some decent trades and help out the traders there with issues they may have. That said, it is my intention to pick things up in here and get back on track with my free signals, but I've kind of been waiting on this EUR/USD to finally get to the right spot where I want to short it.
     
    #5 Sir Pipsalot, Nov 19, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2010
  6. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Oh, and FYI on the EUR/USD, my stance has not changed much since Monday... I'm still waiting on a bounce to somewhere around 1.3800-1.3900 to get into a position trade short.
     

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