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Sir Pipsalot's Thursday Market Update 06-10-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jun 9, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey guys,

    EUR/USD managed to rally very nicely as high as 1.2073 yesterday off the 1.1930-1.1950 area where I called a long when I put out yesterday's signal. While we're seeing another pullback, I believe it's very possibly just another buying opportunity, so I'd hang on for another higher high if you're still long, or if you got out with profit already, consider buying again on this dip (EUR/USD currently 1.1970). Any trade below 1.1900 would either shift me to neutral or bearish depending on the manner of the decline, but for now, I'm definitely still in a "buy on dips" mode.

    Stocks perfectly hit my sell order at 1075 squeeking into my 1075-1085 sell range to top out today at 1077.75 (I had the sell limit set to 1075 in the Profit Mongers room). Amazingly, I seemed to nab the top pretty perfectly because we're almost already down at my 1045 TP already in the same day. Remember, I'm waiting for a solid break of 1035 on the S&P to provide the last bit of confirmation I need to engineer a very long term short trade to take advantage of many 100's of points of stock market selloff. Until then though, it's potentially beefy support, so I'm only holding a minimal position short once my 1045 TP is hit.

    A reminder though, today (Thursday) is the day the active futures contracts change hands and the September Contract will steal most of the liquidity from the June. If you're trading futures, tomorrows the perfect day to simply close the June (ESM0) contract and reenter for Sept. (ESU0), but keep in mind that the Sept contract is trading 4-5 points lower because it has a longer time to expiration. If you can't or don't close out your June contract tomorrow, keep in mind that next Friday (6-18) the contract will expire and cash you out at the market close. If you trade along with my stock trades, but do so another way other than futures, just realize that going forward, the levels I mention may be 4-5 points lower than the actual S&P 500 index since the Sept contract will trade lower until it gets closer and closer to expiration.

    In news Wednesday, we saw NZ Interest Rates come out with a hike as expected, but the statement was quite hawkish, so the NZD/USD rallied as forecasted for 50+ pips. Aussie Unemployment Rate came out low with no conflicts as well, so the AUD/USD rallied a solid 60 pips (even more than forecasted) and may push further yet (I'm long from news and thinking around 0.8400 today). In news Thursday:

    0700 & 0745 BoE Interest Rate Decision & ECB Interest Rate Decisions - This is the first time in a long while there's really no clearly defined angle to take on either of these interest rate decisions/statements. It's a very boring setup where essentially the market is expecting nothing... no changes to any plans, policies, stances, tone... nothing.

    The only way these news items will drum up good price action is if there's a surprising policy shift which is hard to anticipate and preview for. My advice is to listen up for something big and unexpected, but the normal rhetoric should have little effect this month.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. PipStar

    PipStar Sergeant

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    It sure was a good call both on the euro and the S & P 500 from yesterday's call there were plenty of pips to make.
     

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