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Sir Pipsalot's Thursday Market Update 07-15-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 14, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The medium to long term picture is still a bit murky in most markets. The EUR/USD seems to be in the final stages of this rally leg, and while we may be close to a lasting high, it could extend further as high as 1.3100 before finding relief, so I'm staying neutral here until the picture clears up. For shorter term trades, look to sell into pullbacks trading downside momentum on a break below 1.2680 while buying pullbacks to trade upside momentum is fine as long as we're above the 40 sma on the hourly.

    Stocks may have topped out today around the max time and price targets for retracement I discussed in yesterday's signal, so I'm still bearish on all timeframes, but a push above 1102 Thursday will be enough to force me into a much more neutral stance. Even if it's only temporary, this rally is well due for a retracement.

    In news Wednesday, we saw UK Claimant Count Change come out too close to expectations, while US Retail Sales came in a bit too close as well. In news Thursday:

    0830, 0915, 1000 - Various small US Reports - None of these are real movers, but it's a very data heavy NY morning with 8 US economic numbers coming out at those various times this morning. If a trend starts to develop by 0800, look for a countertrend surprise on one of these to give a nice pullback to get the other way for a trend following trade.

    1845 NZ CPI q/q (0.5% expected) - This trade typically hits about a 40 pip target give or take 5 pips. Sometimes that comes all in the first 1-2 minutes, and other times it takes a good 5-10 minutes to reach a peak around there. While the triggers listed below call for a 0.3%, 0.2% should work as long as the y/y figure has a 0.2% deviation in the same direction as well.
    If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 40 pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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