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Sir Pipsalot's Thursday Market Update 2-11-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Feb 11, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The EUR/USD has continued to consolidate, and is either in the early to mid stages of a more significant retracement that could challenge the 1.4000 region, or should start a downtrend resumption targeting 1.3460 and possibly 1.3000-1.3100. As I see it, the key biasing point is Wednesday's highs around 1.3840. If we head up through yesterday's highs, we're in for a longer period of retracement and a more neutral to bullish stance seems appropriate in the short term. As long as it seems like those highs will stand, I will continue to maintain a more bearish bias. FYI, I will describe what I mean by my biases below:

    Aggressively bullish - Looking to buy on dips and also buy on shorter term momentum following and breakout strategies.
    Bullish - Looking to buy on dips and follow momentum long on longer term charts.
    Neutral to Bullish - Looking to buy on dips only
    Neutral - Looking to buy on dips, or sell on rallies
    Neutral to Bearish - Looking to sell on rallies only
    Bearish - Looking to sell on rallies and follow momentum short on longer term charts.
    Aggressively Bearish - Looking to sell on rallies and also sell on shorter term momentum following and breakout strategies

    On stocks, it's kind of a similar situation to the Euro where equities are either headed down hard and fast soon, or will be a bit more stubborn consolidation period for a few more days. I'm still tilted towards a more protracted selloff, but I'll have more on this as the situation becomes more clear.

    In news Wednesday, we saw UK IP come out pretty close to expected, but the BoE Inflation report came out quite dovish on inflation and the Q&A afterwards hinted at future resumption of quantitative easing, so the GBP weakened considerably, and GBP weakness may very well extend further throughout the week. If you'd like to take advantage of this, I would recommend holding EUR/GBP long after getting in on some form of a dip. Both AU Employment & Unemployment Rate figures came in much better than expected leading to a wicked 100+ pip rally on AUD/USD going further than I expected. In news Thursday:

    0830 US Core Retail Sales - This report got moved to Friday due to inclement weather in Washington DC

    1645 NZ Retail Sales - I don't really like this trade since it's released just 15 minutes before the NY close... usually even decent deviations have more muted moves. NZ RS tends to work a lot better when it comes out at 1845 or even 1745 EST. Obviously there's potential for something to happen here, but I just don't like it enough at this timeslot.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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