Sir Pipsalot's Thursday Market Update 2-25-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The EUR/USD has sold off into the 1.3440-1.3480 range I identified Tuesday as a good region to buy the EUR/USD for a swing trade, so consider going long here (currently 1.3480 as I type). Sentiment is heavy on the Euro, but risk reward and a potential short squeeze mathematically favor a long here on a 1h chart timeframe.

Yesterday I identified stocks as a good sell in the 1098 to 1102 range, and they topped around around 1105 and have sold off to 1096 on the futures right now. Risk aversion is in the air, so I'm looking for some continued downside to close out the week. If we consolidate a whole lot more, I may be changing my tune come Friday, but I think giving it another day or two to gather some downside momentum sounds appropriate.

In news Thursday:

0355 German Unemployment data - This usually isn't a tradable event, but oftentimes it either leaks or there are rumors about it that drive action on the Euro for the session. The fact that it's coming out just gives the European session a bit more action than usual.

0430 BoE King speaking - Same thing as the German data... there's always the chance he'll say something very market moving, but really all this usually does is add some volume and volatility to the session.

0830 US Core Durable Goods (1.0% expected) - This number may be starting to make a comeback in tradability along with some other indicators. I'd look for a 20-30 pip move with the potential for more. Look out for conflicts though with US Initial Jobless Claims (460K expected).
If it comes out at 2.0% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 20-30 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, USD/JPY should fall 20-30 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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