Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 02-23-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The EUR/USD worked out to double top around 1.3650 as forecasted in yesterday's signal making for a decent scalp/swing short, but the relatively weak downside puts the EUR/USD into a more neutral position where we're a bit more likely to see further upside than yesterday. At this point, I am shifting my bias to neutral which means I'm willing to either buy a dip or sell a rally. Specifically, I think a rally to the 1.3770-1.3800 range tomorrow would make for a good short, whereas a selloff to the 1.3440-1.3480 range may make for a good long. It's rarely a good idea to catch a falling knife though, so either keep profit targets very modest, or wait for some bottoming/topping and momentum reversal for confirmation.

Stocks consolidated around the 1104 to 1112 range, and again, there are good reasons to expect a large selloff in the medium to long term, but it's hard to pinpoint right now on the short term. I think the S&P has the potential to rally as high as 1124 before topping out, but it could turn sooner. A selloff below 1098 would be a good sign that we've topped out early. If you're in a short, I'd hang on for awhile longer as long as you can stomach a rally to 1124, but if you're not in a short, definitely consider one. If I were to enter a short now at 1107 I'd put a 20-25 point SL on it and look for 20-25 points profit on a portion and hold the rest for a larger decline into the 900's and 800's.

In news Tuesday:

0400 German IFO Business (96.1 expected) - This trade isn't guaranteed to be a mover by any means, but with some of the extra attention on the Euro from the Greece situation, German economic numbers like this might encite more volatility.
If it comes out at 97.1 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30 pips.
If it comes out at 95.1 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 30 pips.

1000 US Consumer Confidence (55 expected) - Like the IFO, this one is a bit of a stretch, but it's been so long since we've seen a surprise here, one is likely to be market moving.
If it comes out at 60 or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30 pips.
If it comes out at 50 or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot