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Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 06-29-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jun 28, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    On EUR/USD the 1.2405 SL held, and my short play on the EUR/USD is looking pretty solid. My original final TP area for current EUR/USD shorts was the 1.2100 to 1.2150 area and I still plan to get out around there, even though it's quite possible we'll see EUR/USD dip lower than that, but there's a good enough chance of a low there to take profit and turn neutral at that point. If you got short yesterday around 1.2380 based on my bias, I'd definitely take some profits here (now 1.2263) and hold out for another 100-150 pips for the final bit.

    Stocks are consolidating down here and may indeed stage that short term bounce I alluded to yesterday, but with the somewhat bearish turn on the Euro and the lack of upside today, I think the odds have definitely gotten lower for a near-term bounce here, so I'd wait to play the bounce in case we get a lower low first possibly around 1045-1060. Remember, a clear break of 1035 will force me into a long-term selloff trade I will patiently construct and clue you guys in on if and when we get there.

    In news Tuesday:

    1000 US Consumer Confidence (62.8 expected) - Despite most US news working well on USD/JPY, this report in particular seems to work better on EUR/USD, so try trading EUR/USD or EUR/JPY.
    If it comes out at 69 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at 57 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 40 pips.

    Hey folks,

    EUR/USD is a bit on the edge here at 1.2400 resistance (now 1.2380). My SL for the last half of my short from 1.2450 is at 1.2405 and has survived so far, but the Euro is facing a bit of a line in the sand. Risk reward still favors the short on most timeframes as long as the 1.2400 area is holding. If 1.2400 is broken to the upside convincingly, I'd play EUR/USD a bit more neutrally and wait for a better setup.

    Stocks are possibly forming a short term bottom for another medium term push higher, within the context of a long term downtrend. So the opportunity here depends on your timeframe. Short to medium term, it looks most likely setting up for a 50-70 point bounce here, but as with most wave B's, there's always a chance we'll push lower before the bounce takes hold.

    In news Friday, we saw US GDP come in a bit too close to expectations for a reliable trade. In news Monday:

    0830 Various Small US Reports - This monthly cluster of US data rarely has pushed the markets much, but every now and then it comes out of nowhere with a pretty solid move. Nothing reliable to predict here, but just keep your eyes open if there's a big surprise and look to play off of support and resistance.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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