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Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 07-06-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 5, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey guys,

    Friday saw both of my EUR/USD trade ideas fail unfortunately. I think I had a poor read on the wave structure and didn't account for that additional wave higher. Anyhow, for now there's two-way potential short to medium term on the Euro, where a break of 1.2450 should signal additional downside, but as long as recent lows hold around 1.2480 (currently 1.2498), the odds and risk reward actually favor a long. Given this setup, I'd try a long from here with either a 25 pip SL looking for 40-100 pips to the upside, and if the trade stops out, wait for a confirmed break of 1.2450 to look for momentum following short trades.

    Stocks continue to edge lower in thin market activity with Monday's holiday and S&P futures now are trading around 1006, about 13 points lower from Friday's close. Things look great for our short stock trade from last week and as I've mentioned and reference back to, I'm looking for downside that (quoting myself) "should take us down to 400 on the S&P 500 (over the long term). More medium term, we should sell off over the next 3-5 weeks most likely to around 890, but at least to 950 support." My confidence in the stock outlook continues to solidify.

    In news Monday, we had UK Services PMI that came in a bit low, but I didn't preview it because I thought the holiday themed markets wouldn't react heavily to this type of indicator and indeed, the reaction was quite limited. In news early Tuesday:

    0030 EST Tuesday Morning/Monday night - AU Interest Rate Statement (no change at 4.50% unanimously expected) - In the last meeting their statement and subsequent speech shocked markets in describing their interest rates as "normalized," implying they were done hiking rates for some time. While it's possible they could double back on that stance with a move on rates, the more likely scenario is that they stay put with extra attention on the wording of their statement and following speech. The primary focus will be for clues about whether they are likely to hike rates again and how soon they would be willing to do so.
    --If they hike rates by any amount, AUD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
    --If they cut rates by any amount, AUD/USD should fall 50+ pips.
    --If they use unusually dovish language to hint at keeping rates on hold for a very long time, AUD/USD should push lower 40-50 pips and perhaps maintain a downtrend for some time.
    --If they use surprisingly hawkish language that implies another rate hike may be just around the corner, AUD/USD should push higher 40-50 pips and perhaps maintain an uptrend for some time.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. eric10

    eric10 Private

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    help

    helo sirpips
    what about the aud/jpy?
     
  3. NATAN SHAIN

    NATAN SHAIN Private

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    sp help

    hello
    i trade with your signals sometime and make money thank you for it
    i will like to trade with expert Advisors robot but i saw there is alot of them and some is only fraud
    i hope you can help me if you know about expert Advisors robot that work

    thank you
     
  4. dancingphil

    dancingphil Recruit

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    There is no such thing as a profitable commercial EA that you can buy.

    But there are many for free (try forexfactory.com, forex-tsd.com etc) where traders get together with a small number of programmers and they test their strategies with fully configurable options.

    A lot about real trading can be learned by following the development threads of these FREE EAs.

    But I say again, there is no such thing as a profitable one that you can buy.
     

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