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Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 07-13-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 13, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    We saw some fairly encouraging signs that we are indeed topping out in currencies. EUR/USD continued lower without too much of a pullback as did EUR/JPY. I'm expecting further downside continuation as the week develops.

    In stocks however, we saw a resilient day that ended with a small push higher. This makes the odds of a turn a bit narrower, but it's still worth sticking with the short no matter what your timeframe, at least as long as 1085 holds. Again, the turn lower should be soon, so I'll definitely have more on this tomorrow either way.

    In news Monday, we saw UK GDP come out as expected, so there was no trade there. In news Tuesday:

    0430 UK CPI y/y (3.2% expected) - This report is usually best played just for a short term move. Lately even 0.2-0.3 deviations have only mounted temporary 35-50 pip moves.
    If it comes out at 3.4% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips
    If it comes out at 3.0% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips

    0500 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (25.3 expected) - On a large deviation of 10 or more, this trade is usually good for at least 30 pips.
    If it comes out at 35 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30+ pips.
    If it comes out at 15 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 30+ pips.

    1845 NZ Retail Sales (0.5% expected) - This trade has done decently well scoring 30-50 pip moves on moderate deviations. Most of the move seems to come in the first few minutes.
    If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 30+ pips.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 30+ pips

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

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    Sir Pips,

    Would be nice to get these signals earlier. Not aure how amny in the states stay up late enough to use them. I thought EUR/USD was heading down but was waiting for your signal as a confirmation. Am in long and was waiting for you as a confirm...to late as the pair dove down and took the loss. I know it's even later where you are at, hope you get enough sleep too. I bet it takes a lot of effort to put this together, so I'm not trying to be mean. I do appreciate the effort. Just hate sitting up this late.
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I usually do put them out earlier, but my sleep patterns are a bit off this week so the release times for the signals have been a bit whacky.

    In any case, it looks like the markets are really refuting my bias right now and risk appetite has taken an unanticipatedly strong hold. I'm going pretty much market neutral right now for a bit until things clear up and we start to get some real confirmation and a more predictable pattern sets up for a move either way. Right now the outlook has turned into a bunch of "if's" and "maybe's," so I'm out of all short to medium term trades. The rally so far has been strong enough to tilt the odds away from favoring a retracement and more like 50-50 we're actually reversing higher (in Euro, Stocks, risk appetite in general).

    Even if the risk/reward looks good to pick a top or bottom at a specific spot, I'm staying out of big trades and bold calls until we get some further confirmation one way or another. Until then, I'm likely going to refocus my signal info on shorter term opportunities to grab some smaller chunks of pips in the meantime.
     
  4. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

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    Yep, caught me off too. I didn't expect such a big push up and so soon. However, looking over the events...it's now obvious. Good idea focusing on short term goals. Market is to weird to make anthing definate for long term. My sleep is off too, I wake up at 5:00am and sleep midnight, about 5 hours a night....not bad for a 47 year old...:D
     

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