Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 08-24-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The EUR/USD managed to push lower and is mighty close to the upper end of my projected support range of 1.2420 - 1.2610 (now 1.2632) with a low of 1.2619. Personally, since I've been short since 1.3070, I plan to TP near the upper end of that range here for a ~450 pip gain. For the next EUR/USD trade, either a clear bottom will develop in this support range setting up for a medium term long, or if I miss out on getting in on that long early, I'll wait for a decent bounce into the 1.2800 - 1.2900 range (subject to change) over the next couple weeks and position short from there.

USD/JPY did indeed head lower after I bailed on the long in yesterday's signal and is currently testing 85.00 support yet again. As I've mentioned before, the fundamental support for USD/JPY has eroded, and a breakout lower is a much higher possibility now, so I wouldn't look to play support off this level any longer.

Stocks are still showing bearish tendencies but are flirting with this 1066 support level. I still feel the odds are that this level will break and the subsequent follow-through should take us down to at least the 1000-1010 area on the S&P.

In news Tuesday:

0830 CAD Headline Retail Sales (0.4% expected) - This news has been pretty reliably offering up about 35 pips on the initial spike, then some short retracement or consolidation, followed by a move usually good for 50ish pips from prerelease. Also, with the expectations tilted slightly higher, I'd prefer to use a tighter trigger on a negative surprise (buy trigger)
--If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, USD/CAD should fall 35 pips initially followed by 50 pips total.
--If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 35 pips initially followed by 50 pips total.

1000 US Exisiting Home Sales (4.65M expected) - While this report can create a decent move sometimes on the USD/JPY, 1000AM EST news like this is often best traded as a scalp on stock futures like YM, & ES.
--If it comes out at 5.25 or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips, and US stock futures should rally 0.5%-1% over 10 minutes.
--If it comes out at 4.05 or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips, and US stock futures should sell off 0.5%-1% over 10 minutes.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot


hello s p

i have two question
1. i whant to sell s&p where its good place
2.what its stock YM & ES and what with s&p for the news

thank you