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Sir Pipsalot's Tuesday Market Update 08-31-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Aug 30, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Just a short signal tonight as I do not have as much time as usual tonight. Check out my signals from Friday and Monday for more details on my biases.

    EUR/USD may have topped at initial resistance just ahead of 1.2790, and I am bearish long term, but the retracement seems a bit shallow to me. I'd prefer to get more downside confirmation or wait for a deeper pullback before getting in short again.

    EUR/GBP still looks good for a long as long as 4hr chart trendline support now around 0.8165 holds up. If that trendline fails, I'd look to get out or even flip short.

    USD/JPY did not break key resistance cited yesterday and instead moved to the bottom of its hourly chart range. Since I'm already very short on stocks, I don't want to get aggressive on the short side of USD/JPY, so I'd prefer to wait for more of a clear long signal (like a break of 85.92) to help hedge some of the volatility in risk appetite and risk aversion.

    Stocks managed to peek into my 1070-1080 sell range, but only overnight Sunday on futures before selling off to now 1045. I'm lowering my buy range on S&P futures to 1000-1010 and maintaining my sell range at 1070-1080.

    In news Monday, AU Retail Sales came out slightly high, but not enough to trigger a buy. In news Tuesday:

    0830 CAD GDP m/m (0.2% expected) - I normally don't trade CAD GDP, but with little other news out at 0830, it should perform well with a decent 0.2% deviation.
    If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, USD/CAD should drop 40 pips over 3-20 minutes.
    If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40 pips over 3-20 minutes.

    0945 US Chicago PMI (57.0 expected) - Stay away from this one as it gets released early to some people at 0942, and even then it only moves maybe 30 pips usually on a big surprise. If you can get the news early somehow at 0942, I'd prefer to trade it on US Equity futures.

    1000 US Consumer Confidence (50.7 expected) - While this trade should work decently well on USD/JPY, like most 10:00AM EST US reports, it will likely work even better on US Equity futures like the ES or YM.
    --If it comes out at 56 or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips over 20 minutes, while US equities should rally 0.3 to 0.6% initially and about 1% over 20 minutes.
    --If it comes out at 45 or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips over 20 minutes, while US equities should fall 0.3 to 0.6% initially and about 1% over 20 minutes.

    2130 AU GDP q/q (0.9% expected) - This report tends to hit about a 30 pip move initally, then consolidate for awhile, then has a very high likelihood of continuing in the direction of the initial move with slow but steady momentum to new extremes. You can try trading a 0.2% trigger instead of 0.3%, but you need to make sure the y/y (2.8% expected) also is 0.2% away as well.
    --If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 30 pips initally and
    closer to 50 pips over 30-90 minutes.
    --If it comes out at 0.6% or lower, AUD/USD should fall 30 pips initially and closer to 50 pips over 30-90 minutes.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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