Sir Pipsalot's Wednesday Market Update 04-14-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The EUR/USD managed to dip into the Sunday gap higher, but was unable to fill it all the way and narrowly avoided my 1.3500-1.3540 buy range I called Sunday night by 5 pips bottoming at 1.3545. Nonetheless, the medium term outlook here is still for a rally to or near 1.3800, so trade accordingly. Personally, I don't like the risk/reward buying here, so I'm waiting just in case we get some sort of slight lower low below 1.3545 to get in long. EUR/USD has shifted a bit short term bullish though and I'm not sure how likely it is we'll get that.

In news Tuesday, we saw NZ Retail Sales come out low and force a pretty decent 40-50 pip move down following the news, but most of that came very quickly. In news Wednesday:

0830 US Core Retail Sales m/m (0.5% expected), and US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - Usually these reports come out separately, but unfortunately they're sandwiched up here. Watch out for a conflict, but if they come out the same way, it could accellerate the move. My best guess is that Retail Sales is more important for the initial surge, but CPI will have a stronger affect on the lasting momentum.
If Core RS comes out at 1.0% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips
If Core RS comes out at 0.0% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips
If Core CPI comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30 pips
If Core CPI comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30 pips

There's also some Chinese data coming out during the asian session at 2200 EST that may cause some volatility, but how that will affect currencies is harder to predict than it used to be. Just be prepared for a more lively session than usual.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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