Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
EUR/USD continues to waver about in its 1.2850 - 1.3000 band, but until a more material break develops one way or the other, it's a bit difficult to fundamentally predict the next major medium term move with mixed pressures being placed on the pair right now. Again, I'm confident a significant high is either in place, or will soon be in place, but I'm looking for more confirmation before I attempt another trade, so I'll revisit the Euro in tomorrow's signal.
USD/JPY floated up a bit along with stocks today, but is still set up to sell off and extend lower probably to around 85.00 (now 87.14). The wild card here is stocks. If stocks work into another bullish leg here soon (a possibility), USD/JPY will likely not see the downside potential I'm looking for there. Both the USD/JPY and Stock short bias are fairly intertwined, but thankfully, the USD/JPY rally looks much more corrective than impulsive. A rally above 88.00 would put this forecast in jeopardy, while a decline to new lows below Friday's 86.27 low will dramatically solidify the forecast.
Stocks had a pretty decent rally today, retracing a decent portion of Friday's sharp losses. While we've seen some success from Friday's S&P short around 1090, it's still not completely clear how much downside we'll see. I plan to keep a fairly tight SL on this one since a rally through 1100 will likely mean we're in a C wave higher which would mean 1130 is the likely target, and today's decline to 1051 was all we're going to get on wave B down. Still, my personal targets on this short are 1070, 1040-1050 (just missed), and 1010-1020, the first of which has been filled.
In news Tuesday, we saw the BOC hike as expected, but deliver a very cautious tone implying rate hikes will be very slow moving foward. This created a nice 60 pip rally on USD/CAD over the course of 40 minutes. In news Wednesday:
0430 BoE Meeting Minutes - In the last set of minutes it was revealed that BoE member Sentance voted for a rate hike. Analysts expect another 7-1 vote, so should any other BoE members join in calling for a rate hike, things could get juicy.
If 2 or more members voted for a hike, GBP/USD should rally 50+ pips.
If only Sentance voted for a hike, while King and others express a much more dovish tone, GBP/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.
If only Sentance voted for a hike, and the rest of the members expressed mixed sentiment with an overall neutral tone, that's pretty much what's expected, so I'd stay out of the trade.
1000 Bernanke Testimony on Capitol Hill - I don't have anything specific to look out for here, but I'm just reminding everyone that there's a wild card out there during the NY session, so listen up just in case a big tape bomb gets thrown out there on the USD.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
EUR/USD continues to waver about in its 1.2850 - 1.3000 band, but until a more material break develops one way or the other, it's a bit difficult to fundamentally predict the next major medium term move with mixed pressures being placed on the pair right now. Again, I'm confident a significant high is either in place, or will soon be in place, but I'm looking for more confirmation before I attempt another trade, so I'll revisit the Euro in tomorrow's signal.
USD/JPY floated up a bit along with stocks today, but is still set up to sell off and extend lower probably to around 85.00 (now 87.14). The wild card here is stocks. If stocks work into another bullish leg here soon (a possibility), USD/JPY will likely not see the downside potential I'm looking for there. Both the USD/JPY and Stock short bias are fairly intertwined, but thankfully, the USD/JPY rally looks much more corrective than impulsive. A rally above 88.00 would put this forecast in jeopardy, while a decline to new lows below Friday's 86.27 low will dramatically solidify the forecast.
Stocks had a pretty decent rally today, retracing a decent portion of Friday's sharp losses. While we've seen some success from Friday's S&P short around 1090, it's still not completely clear how much downside we'll see. I plan to keep a fairly tight SL on this one since a rally through 1100 will likely mean we're in a C wave higher which would mean 1130 is the likely target, and today's decline to 1051 was all we're going to get on wave B down. Still, my personal targets on this short are 1070, 1040-1050 (just missed), and 1010-1020, the first of which has been filled.
In news Tuesday, we saw the BOC hike as expected, but deliver a very cautious tone implying rate hikes will be very slow moving foward. This created a nice 60 pip rally on USD/CAD over the course of 40 minutes. In news Wednesday:
0430 BoE Meeting Minutes - In the last set of minutes it was revealed that BoE member Sentance voted for a rate hike. Analysts expect another 7-1 vote, so should any other BoE members join in calling for a rate hike, things could get juicy.
If 2 or more members voted for a hike, GBP/USD should rally 50+ pips.
If only Sentance voted for a hike, while King and others express a much more dovish tone, GBP/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.
If only Sentance voted for a hike, and the rest of the members expressed mixed sentiment with an overall neutral tone, that's pretty much what's expected, so I'd stay out of the trade.
1000 Bernanke Testimony on Capitol Hill - I don't have anything specific to look out for here, but I'm just reminding everyone that there's a wild card out there during the NY session, so listen up just in case a big tape bomb gets thrown out there on the USD.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot