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Nasdaq 100 - Correction in the dollar is a catalyst for the growth of the stock market

As for the corporate segment, it is not planned to publish new financial reports of companies until Wednesday, but investors are assessing the impact of the fundamental background on the issuers' quotes. Thus, the shares of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. showed rapid growth amid reports that the specialists of three factories for the production of military aircraft in Missouri decided to postpone their strike, as management presented new terms of the working contract. The growth is also shown in the stocks of the largest Chinese company operating in the field of Internet commerce, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., after the negative regarding the possible delisting of the company from the NYSE exchange was leveled.

The situation in the domestic bond market, where the downward correction continues, also contributes to the growth of stock indices. Thus, the yield rate on popular 10-year securities is 2.543% and today it is decreasing by 2.39%, and the yield on conservative 20-year bonds has dropped to 3.069%, having lost 1.55% since the beginning of trading.

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The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator continue to stay above the signal line and expand the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is steadily increasing in the buy zone.

Support levels: 1268, 11810 | Resistance levels: 13090, 13880​
 
ETHUSD - The decline may continue

This week, the ETHUSD pair is correcting downwards, losing the positions won last week, against the background of a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the USA and the expectation of an early transition of the Ethereum network to the PoS proof algorithm.

Experts note that there is "fatigue" in the market from the constant news about the approaching merger of the Ethereum 1.0 and Ethereum 2.0 networks. Most investors have already put money in the purchase of ETH and are now waiting for an immediate update, which is scheduled for mid-September. Up to this point, observers do not rule out the continuation of the pair's decline or its consolidation.

In addition, the overall pressure on the market is exerted by monetary factors. Despite the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes, which was mentioned last week by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell, the regulator will not give up tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and will spend it for a considerable time, strengthening the position of the US currency in relation to competitors.

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The price has corrected to the area of 1570, but for further serious decline it will need to consolidate below the strong support level of 1500 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%). In this case, the reduction targets will be 1375 and 1250. The key for the "bulls" remains the level of 1750, the breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth to the levels of 1875 (Fibo retracement 38.2%), 2000, and 2125.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1875, 2000, 2125 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​
 
EURUSD - Statistics from the EU prevent further growth of the asset

The German economy is rapidly plunging into a crisis, and the retail sales volume, which fell into negative territory in June, amounting to –1.6% instead of 1.2% in May, confirms this trend. The indicator has already lost 8.8% YoY, an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Statistics for the euro area show a negative trend: July Manufacturing PMI amounted to 49.8 points, which is lower than 52.1 points in the last month, comparable to the lows of spring 2020.

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The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.041 | Support levels: 1.0115, 0.9951​
 
Crude Oil - Investors pending OPEC+ decisions

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will gather for a meeting via videoconference. Investors are watching the upcoming meeting with interest for several reasons. First, a new secretary-general, Haytham Al Ghais will be introduced, succeeding Mohammad Barkindo. The second reason lies in the timing of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement. The fact is that the participating countries plan to reach pre-crisis levels of oil production by September, and in order to meet this deadline, production levels gradually increased to 432 thousand barrels per day in June and up to 648 thousand barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ is currently 2.84 million barrels per day behind schedule, according to the OPEC+ Technical Committee, which could force the organization to take more "hawkish" moves at today's meeting. Almost all parties to the deal are now at the limit of their production capacity, with only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates having spare capacity, which are likely to increase production levels further.

In this regard, there is no need to talk about a stable uptrend. In the event of a change in current plans, one should expect a continuation of a local decline in energy quotations, as world demand is not yet able to cope with such a high supply.

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On the global chart of the asset, the price is kept within the local downward channel and may make a new attempt to overcome the support level in the near future.

Support levels: 91.68, 84.1 | Resistance levels: 97.57, 106.74​
 
The shares of Tesla, an American electric car maker, are correcting around 921.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1050 – 560 and is trying to approach the resistance line. On the four-hour chart, the signal is being processed after overcoming the upper limit of the local Triangle pattern around 755. There may be obstacles in the way of further upward movement of quotes, and the first serious of them may be the local resistance level of 955, which the trading instrument can reach today.

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Technical indicators signal continued growth
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with an uptrend in the buying zone.​
 
GBPUSD - Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to continue raising the rate

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021.

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The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651 | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818​
 
The shares of Starbucks, one of the largest companies in the world that owns the coffee chain of the same name, are trading around 87.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price has left the global downwards channel, breaking the resistance line at 76 and consolidating above the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 81.6. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the quotes have reached another key level — the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 88.30, consolidation above which will be the main signal for the continuation of the upward trend and reaching full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci at 99.50.

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Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a buy signal.
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line and continue to move away from it, while the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the buying zone.​
 
NZDUSD - New Zealand labor market statistics disappointed investors

The dynamics were largely due to a disappointing report on the labor market in New Zealand: the Q2 unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, although analysts had expected a decline to 3.1%, and the percentage change in employment from the previous quarter did not happen at all with forecasts of growth of 0.4%. According to statistics, the share of the economically active population decreased to 70.80%, while preliminary estimates of the figure were 71.00%. To the labor market, the commodity price index has also shown negative dynamics for the fourth month in a row: the value lost 2.2% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and in such conditions, we cannot speak of stable growth of the NZDUSD pair.

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The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, correcting towards the local resistance. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6329, 0.6556 | Support levels: 0.6238, 0.6061​
 
Crude Oil - OPEC+ ignores US pressure

Cartel Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said that the increase in production in September by 100 K barrels per day is not a mechanism for influencing oil quotations but acts as a check to ensure a complete balance of supply and demand. According to members of the organization, it is not the oil price that causes much greater concern but the low financing of the oil sector in the world, which this year has decreased from 600 B dollars to 450 B dollars. Thus, according to the results of the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia will increase production by 26.0K barrels per day, and the remaining 48.0K will fall on other members of OPEC+.

Demand for contracts by investors continues to decline gradually, reaching its lowest levels since 2016. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions amounted to only 253.8K compared to 259.3K a week earlier.

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On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel, heading towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal and completely exclude a reversal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 96.48, 105.23 | Support levels: 92.48, 85.60​
 

USDCHF - Technical analysis​


H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend and emphasizes the unstable position of the "bulls". At the moment, above the support level of 0.9396, a Bearish Engulfing Pattern has formed, which signals about increasing sales volumes. If the "bulls" fail to hold it, one should expect an increased downtrend up to the level of 0.9227. An alternative scenario is possible if buyers overcome the resistance level of 0.9496 with further recovery of positions in the zone of 0.9619–0.9728.

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D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Bear Flag price pattern, from which the price broke down. In addition, the negative trend is accompanied by the formation of a long red candle, the "bearish" Marubozu, which emphasizes the strength of sellers. In the current situation, the "bearish" trend is expected to continue and the price pattern to end at the level of 0.9227. The turning point for the "bulls" may be an impulse breakdown of the level of 0.9496.

Support levels: 0.9396, 0.9307, 0.9227 | Resistance levels: 0.9496, 0.9619, 0.9728

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