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Crude oil sell-off intensifies

Oil prices continue to move sharply lower on Tuesday reaching a level not seen since the beginning of the year as rising demand concerns overshadowed the impact of EU price cap on Russian oil. Weak data from China's service sector, weakening manufacturing activity in the EU and US, expectations of further rate increases from major central banks and rebounding dollar put pressure on oil prices. A report that Russia was considering a oil-price floor provided only a brief respite for bulls as price resumed downward move in late afternoon. One needs to remember that if the price will drop below $70.0 per barrel, then this may force OPEC reaction.

Oil price fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest level this year. Looking at the D1 timeframe, one can notice a dynamic break below the support at 82.40, which could lead to a further sell-off. The next key support is located at $76.50.​

 

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EURUSD crawls downwards

The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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EURUSD - The EU economy shows slight growth

Thus, according to November data, the growth of Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 0.3%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.2%, and the annual rate slowed to 2.3% from 4.2% earlier, according to preliminary estimates at 2.1%, helped by an increase in employment by 0.3% from an estimated 0.2%. Thus, employment in the region increases by 1.8% YoY and leads to an increase in the overall level of the indicator to 164.499K from 164.475K a quarter earlier.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and is confidently holding above the resistance line of the local ascending corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable upward signal.

Resistance levels: 1.0590, 1.0780 | Support levels: 1.0440, 1.0240​

 

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GBPUSD needs positive momentum

The GBPUSD pair shows some slight bearish bias now to move around 1.2200 level, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its next target located at 1.2345. Note that breaking 1.2130 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to start bearish correction that its targets begin by visiting 1.1925 areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120 support and 1.2290 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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BTCUSD - the decision of the US Federal Reserve will determine the dynamics of "digital gold"

Last week, the BTCUSD pair fell to the 16700 area but then won back the losses and rose to 17200, where it has been trading over the past few sessions.

The cryptocurrency market remains uncertain: the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange is putting pressure on it, but monetary factors prevent a significant decrease in quotes. The liquidation of several large digital projects at once in six months caused serious damage to the sector, expressed in the loss of confidence in it and a decrease in investment. Thus, according to a survey of American citizens conducted by the CNBC channel, by the end of the year, the number of respondents who had a positive attitude towards digital assets adjusted to 8.0% from 19.0%, and after the Terraform and FTX bankruptcies, the number of respondents who were strongly negative about cryptocurrencies, rose from 25.0% to 43.0%. The situation with FTX did not go unnoticed by the authorities, which creates the possibility of tightening control over the activities of such sites, restraining the activity of its participants. State regulators are already checking messages for unfair advertising, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has required national businesses to publicly disclose the ownership of digital assets and report transactions with cryptocurrency market participants.

However, the negative fundamentals did not contribute to a sharp downward correction, as investors hope that the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed will soften in the face of an emerging slowdown in price growth, which may cause the dollar to weaken against its main competitors. This week, analysts expect two major events – the publication of November inflation data and a meeting of the US regulator: if the consumer price index declines again, a decrease in interest rate growth to 50 basis points will become inevitable, and in the future, a short-term break in tightening of the monetary policy will become possible.

The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). After the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 16800, the decline may resume to 15700 (the area of November lows), 15000 (Murrey [4/8]), and 13750 (Murrey [3/8]).

Technical indicators signal a high probability of correction: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, and MACD is decreasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16800, 15700, 15000, 13750​

 

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NZDUSD leans on the channel’s support

The NZDUSD pair faced temporary negative pressure to test the bullish channel’s support line, starting to rise now, to keep the main bullish trend valid, waiting to test 0.6467 as a first station, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.6530. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 0.6375 and 0.6345 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6345 support and 0.6480 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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USDJPY attempts to recover

The USDJPY pair shows positive trades by today’s open to attempt to breach 136.50 level, to hint the attempt to recover in the upcoming sessions, but we notice that the technical indicators provide negative signals that hinder the positive attempts, to face contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level.

Note that holding above 136.50 will lead the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 138.25 areas mainly, while trading below it again will reactivate the negative scenario that its targets begin at 135.25 and extend to 134.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 136.00 support and 137.80 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.​

 

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Crude oil price begins bullish correction

Crude oil price keeps rising to breach the bearish channel’s resistance by today’s open and settles above it, to start bullish correction for the entire decline that started from 92.9 areas, on its way to test 75.63 as a first positive station.

Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 78.93 areas, while breaking 73.65 represents negative factor that will stop the correctional bullish trend and press on the price to decline again.

The expected trading range for today is between 72.50 support and 76 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair returns to test the bullish channel’s support line, and we need to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the main bullish trend within the mentioned channel, which targets 1.0600 followed by 1.0745 levels as next main stations. Until now, we continue to suggest the bullish trend that gets continuous support by the EMA50 conditioned by the price stability above 1.0515, noting that breaking this level will stop the positive scenario and cause key turn to the trend to the downside.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0460 support and 1.0630 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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Chart of the day - GBPUSD​

GBPUSD pair pulled back slightly today as traders digested latest economic data from Great Britain. Yesterday’s UK jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7% in the August-to-October period, while average earnings rose by a stronger-than-expected 6.1%, however it also did indicate a slowdown in hiring as businesses brace for a difficult start of 2023. Monday's data had shown the UK economy grew more than anticipated in October, however UK Chancellor Hunt warned that the situation could get worse before it gets better. Today's figures showed that UK inflation fell more than expected in November, cementing expectations of a 50 bps move from BoE tomorrow. Also comments from Governor Bailey may provide more details as to the way forward and cause some market movements on Thursday.

Of course the pair may face a spike in volatility in the evening, following Fed interest rate decision. The US central bank is expected to moderate its aggressive tightening campaign but point to a higher peak for rates. Traders will be closely monitoring Fed Chair Powell’s press conference which will take place after the rates announcement for guidance on futures rate hikes.

From a technical point of view, the GBPUSD pair continues to oscillate around local support at 1.2355 waiting for a catalyst for another big move. Should break lower occur, downward move may deepen towards next support at 1.2150 which is marked with previous price reactions and 100 EMA (purple line). In case of a morendovish FED, the pair may retest recent high at 1.2450.​