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Euro sharpens decline to two-week low amid grim outlook

Euro fell in European trade against dollar for third straight session, hitting two-week lows amid grim outlook for European services and manufacturing, which could hinder the ECB's policy tightening plans. The dollar extended its gains following recent remarks by Fed officials, which confirms the ECB will carry on its battle against inflation in the US. EURUSD fell 0.7% fell 1.0252, the lowest since November 11, after losing 0.4% on Friday, the second loss in a row as two-year German treasury yields slowed down.

Euro fell 0.3% last week against dollar on profit-taking away from four-month highs at 1.0481.

Grim Outlook

Europe's manufacturing PMI data are expected later today to show a slowdown in activities in November.
The data is expected to bring down bets on the European Central Bank's expected rate hikes at upcoming meetings.


The Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.6% on Monday on track for the third profit in a row, hitting two-week highs at 107.59 against a basket of major rivals.
Recent US data showed retail sales rose past estimates in October, while Fed officials such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Dale said it's reasonable the Fed will raise rates to 5.25% by early next year.​

 

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows an attempt at corrective growth, testing the level of 1.0260 for a breakout. The EUR/USD pair is recovering after a noticeable decline the day before, as a result of which the single currency updated local lows from November 11. At the same time, market activity remains reduced, as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as a block of macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders in October and business activity in November. Analysts expect new signals from the US regulator regarding future monetary policy. It is assumed that already in December, the Fed may go for some softening of its rhetoric and raise the interest rate by only 50 basis points. However, the value could be adjusted to higher levels than originally estimated as domestic inflation remains well above the 2.0% target. Uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany put pressure on the single currency yesterday. The Producer Price Index in October fell by 4.2% after rising by 2.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, and in annual terms, the dynamics slowed down from 45.8% to 34.5%, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts at the level of 41.5%.


GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with a weak upward trend, testing the level of 1.1850 for a breakout. The GBP/USD pair is recovering after a moderate decline at the beginning of this week; however, the activity of the "bulls" remains very low, as investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The focus of traders is a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders, as well as the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve, which will be released tomorrow. Traders will assess the likelihood of a slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy, as previously repeatedly stated by representatives of the regulator. In turn, the global vector for a gradual increase in the cost of borrowing is likely to continue, and therefore the American currency is in high demand. In the middle of the week, speeches by representatives of the Bank of England are also expected, including David Ramsden, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann. Moderate tightening of monetary policy is also expected from the British regulator in the future; however, the UK, in addition to raising interest rates, is trying to stabilize the economic situation by reducing government spending and increasing the fiscal burden.


XAUUSD
Gold prices show corrective growth, recovering from a four-day decline, as a result of which the instrument retreated from local highs to lows from November 10. The XAU/USD pair is testing 1745.00 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Demand for gold is gradually recovering as the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting approaches, which may contain hints regarding future monetary policy. The market expects the regulator to allow some weakening of its position in December and raise the interest rate by only 50 basis points. In addition, the minutes will contain updated forecasts regarding economic growth rates and inflation dynamics for the near future. The pressure on the trading instrument is also exerted by the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be held on Wednesday, November 23. Forecasts suggest that the interest rate will be raised again by 75 basis points to 4.25%.​

 

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Silver Price Tests the Key Resistance

Silver price continued to rise to test 21.30 resistance line, and bounced downwards clearly from there, to support the continuation of the bearish trend domination, waiting to test 20.72 level initially, which breaking it represents the key to rally towards 20.25 as a next correctional target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless the price rallied to breach 21.30 and hold above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 20.50 support and 21.30 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

 

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Euro hovers near four-month high on US interest rate prospects

Euro rose in European trade against a basket of major rivals for the third straight session against dollar, almost hitting four-month highs amid fading concerns about the widening policy gap between the US and Europe. The dollar fell to near three-month lows under pressure from Fed's minutes, which bolstered the case for a 0.5% rate hike in December.

EURUSD rose 0.5% to 1.0448, after closing up 0.9% yesterday, the second profit in a row, as risk appetite improved.

Four-Month Peak

Euro hit four-month highs at 1.0481 on November 15 before entering a descending wave on profit-taking.
Current gains amid fading concerns about the policy gaps between the US and Europe, with the ECB expected to increase interest rates by 75 basis points in December.
It's now also widely expected the Fed will increase rates by only 0.5% next month instead of 0.75%.


The Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Thursday, sharpening losses for the third day in a row, and hitting three-month lows at 105.34 against a basket of major rivals.
Fed's minutes yesterday showed US policymakers are content about the slowdown in inflation, and are moving toward smaller rate hikes.​

 

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Euro maintains gains near four-month highs against dollar

Euro rose in European trade against dollar for the fourth straight session, almost hitting four-month highs amid fading concerns about the policy gap between Europe and the US. The greenback is trading near three-month lows under pressure from Fed's minutes, which bolstered the case for a 0.5% rate hike in December. EURUSD rose 0.2% to 1.0428, after closing up 0.15% yesterday, the third profit in a row as risk appetite improves in the market.

Euro is up over 1% so far this week against dollar on track for the second weekly profit in three weeks.
Euro hit four-month highs at 1.0481 earlier this month before entering a wave of losses on active profit-taking.
Current gains come amid fading concerns about the policy gap between the US and Europe, with the ECB expected to raise rates by 75 basis points in December.


The Dollar

The dollar index last traded near three-month lows at 105.34 against a basket of major rivals. Latest Federal Reserve minutes showed US policymakers are content about their ability to move forward and raise interest rates in a slower place.​

 

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Dollar on track for weekly losses on Fed rates

Dollar fell in European trade on Friday against a basket of major rivals, extending the gains for the fourth day in a row, and almost hitting three-month lows, and on track for the second weekly loss in three weeks following weak US data and the release of Fed's minutes. Such Fed minutes clearly bolstered the case for a 0.5% rate hike in December and a slower pace of policy tightening.

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.25% to 105.68, with a session-high at 106.16, after closing down 0.2% yesterday, the third loss in a row, edging near three-month lows at 105.34. Dollar is now down 1.2% so far this week on track for the second weekly loss in three weeks.

Weak Data
Recent US data showed manufacturing and services activities tumbled heavily in November, hinting at potential economic recession in the fourth quarter of the year.


The Fed
Fed's minutes released for the November 1-2 meeting showed most policymakers agreed it's important to slow down the pace of policy tightening.


Fed Minutes
Chances for a 0.5% rate hike in December by the Fed rose from 75% to 85% after Fed's minutes, while chances for a 0.75% rate hike fell from 25% to 15%.​

 

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Euro resumes gains on European interest rate prospects

Euro rose in European trade today, resuming the gains against dollar after a two-day hiatus on profit-taking from five-month highs back then, with current gains coming amid estimates of a 0.75% rate hike by the ECB next month. The greenback fell amid improving risk appetite in the market while demand on safe havens slow down, with investors expecting China to control the ongoing protest in China quickly.

EURUSD rose over 0.5% to 1.0394, after falling 0.55% yesterday, the second loss in a row on profit-taking, after hitting five-month highs earlier at 1.0496.

European Rates

Now markets almost fully expect the ECB to increase interest rates by 75 basis points in December instead of 50 basis points, following bullish remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Investors await important European inflation data tomorrow for November to gauge final chances for a 0.75% rate hike by the ECB.

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The Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.5% on Tuesday, resuming losses after a two-day advance from three-month lows back then at 105.22 against a basket of major rivals. The greenback recouped recently following some bullish remarks by a few Fed officials that showed the Fed might still be aggressive in its policy tightening efforts. Fed Saint Louis President James Bullard said the ECB needs to raise interest rates by a bit more, while New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed needs to carry on its path of rate hikes.

The dollar fell today as risk appetite improved in the markets, while Asian stocks advanced, led by Chinese stocks, hurting demand on safe haven. Investors now mostly expect Chinese authorities to control ongoing protests and alleviate some of the strict Covid 19 restrictions.​

 

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Economic Calendar: ADP Employment report, speech from Fed Chair Powell​

• European indices set for higher opening​
• Powell to speak on the economy and inflation in the evening​
• ADP report expected to show 200k jobs gain in November​

Economic calendar for the day ahead is packed with interesting releases. While GDP data from Europe and US that is scheduled for release will be revisions, other reports may trigger some market moves. European CPI reading will be released at 10:00 am GMT and is expected to show deceleration. Note that major European economies saw price growth decelerate in November so there is a scope for a downside surprise. Apart from that, traders will closely watch ADP jobs report for November (1:15 pm GMT) as it will be a final hint ahead of Friday's NFP release. Last but not least, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 6:30 pm GMT today with the topic of a speech being "Economic Outlook, Inflation and the Labor Market".​

 

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Chart of the Day - US30 - 01.12.2022

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday that it would make sense to moderate the pace of policy tightening in the light of recent macroeconomic data. He said that economic momentum has decelerated below trend but such a situation would need to last for inflation to come down. As price growth in the US economy remains elevated, Powell sees need for further rate hikes but his comment on moderation of the pace made markets believe that 50 bp rate hike is now the base case scenario for December meeting (December 14, 2022). Money markets now price in less around 2% chance of a rate hike bigger than 50 bp rate hike, down from 15% prior to Powell's speech.

Stock markets rallied as Powell hit the dovish note, pushing Nasdaq-100 (US100) over 4% higher yesterday. While the tech index saw the biggest reaction to Powell's speech, it should be noted that it is Dow Jones that has been the top performing Wall Street index as of late. Dow Jones (US30) jumped 20% off the October low, compared to an around-15% rebound for other three major indices (Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000).

Taking a look at US30 chart at D1 interval, we can see that the index jumped above recent local high and reached the highest level since late-April 2022, a 7-month high! A small pullback can be observed today. Should bulls regain control and push the index higher again, the first major resistance zone to watch can be found in the ranging around 78.6% retracement of the downward move started in January 2022 (35,100 pts area).​

 

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Euro widens gains to six-month highs ahead of US jobs data

Euro rose in European trade against dollar for third straight session, hitting six-month highs and on track for the second weekly profit in a row as concerns about the widening policy gap between Europe and the US fades away. Dollar is extending its heavy losses against a basket of major rivals following recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at which he hinted strongly at only a 0.5% rate hike in December.

Investors await important official US payrolls data later today for November, which will provide fresh clues on growth. EURUSD rose over 0.2% to 1.0542, the highest since June, with a session-low at 1.0504, and the largest profit since November 11.

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