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EUR/USD. The price is above the MA21 and below the level of 1.14.

GBP/USD. The price is trying to hold over the MA120.

AUD/USD. If it doesn’t overcome the mark of 0.7110, we think there will be a rebound to the levels of 0.7160 and 0.71.

USD/CAD. The MACD moved closer to the 0 mark and the Stochastic is leaving the oversold zone.

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[Superfx_official]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


The pair is going up.

At the moment the dollar index is falling and has moved away from the highs reached last week, going down to the level of 96.10. Therefore, our pair showed a strong upward movement last week.

Today we expect the US to release data on the labor market. Moreover, the number of currently open vacancies will be published - this figure is expected to be 7.1M.

From the UK, we do not expect strong news today.

On our chart we observe that the price was able to overcome the mark of 1.3010 and rushed higher. If we look at our chart from the point of view of the Elliott wave theory, we can observe the formation of the third upward wave and assume that the price will go to the levels of 1.3150 and 1.3250.

Our technical indicators point to a purchase, so we advise you to look for points to enter long positions and to consider your goals the marks near the above levels.

 

[Superfx_official]

USD/SEK: Fundamental Review & Forecast


The US election negatively impacted the rates. However, we can expect the rates to recover after that. The deals to BUY seem the most effective in the medium term.

The USD/SEK rates haven't changed significantly over the last month. We can still see a rapid upward trend, with no signs of completion. The USD continues to be supported by strong macroeconomic statistics, while in Sweden there is a slowdown in economic growth, as well as in the EU as a whole.

The situation this week is different from usual. There is a strong political component which negatively impacts the value of the USD. Investors around the world were waiting for the results of the midterm elections in the USA - the Senate and the House of Representatives. The crucial importance of these elections was the likely weakening of President Donald Trump's position and even his probable impeachment, if the Democrats get a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. According to the preliminary results of the elections, the Democrats received a majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans retained a majority in the Senate. Such results, according to analysts, preserve the power of Donald Trump, but make it even weaker than it is now, which does not allow Donald Trump to freely implement his reforms. Following the election, the USD decreased in value against most currencies.

As for the situation in the US economy, in general, rapid economic growth continues. According to the latest data, the unemployment rate remains the lowest for the last 49 years for the second month in a row. However, the growth of imports to a record level raises fears about exceeding the allowable trade deficit in the future. Nevertheless, the FED is optimistic about the economic situation and has repeatedly made it clear that an aggressive monetary policy justifies itself and will continue according to the plan. By the way, the next Federal Reserve meeting will be held today. Investors do not expect a rate hike this time, but expect confirmation of the commitment to the current monetary policy, despite the criticism of Donald Trump.

The situation in Sweden matches the situation in the EU. Recent economic reports show a slowdown in economic growth. Industrial production in Sweden rose 1.7% in September, but this is the weakest growth since April last year. The PMI index in the services sector fell by 0.3 pips in October, but it is the lowest since August 2017. The Manufacturing PMI index also fell by 0.2 pips.

In the near future, we can expect a decrease in volatility on the market. Such temporary factors as the results of the US elections will be taken into account and will no longer affect the rates. In any case, despite the presence of new factors this week, the situation on the chart is standard: after the next growth a price correction has begun, which can decrease the rates even closer to the support line than now. However, this price correction is close to completion. When that happens we can expect the dollar to recover its positions within the current trend. Therefore, the deals to BUY in the medium term can be considered as the most effective, which is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator.

 

[Superfx_official]

Is a Reckoning Coming for Trump?

The President's future in the White House is in question after Democrats won positions in the midterm elections.

A new era might be coming for Trump’s presidency in light of the midterm election results. Indeed, while the financial markets welcomed the results, which aligned perfectly with analysts’ expectations, seeing in them signs of more political stability in the United States and less brashness, the overall picture is not that rosy for the White House.

Though the vote counting is not quite complete yet, the results are unlikely to change from their current state. Right now the outcome from the elections is that the Republican party retains control over the Senate, barely, with 51 to 46 Senators. The House of Representatives, however, passed into the hands of the Democrats where they won 225 seats against the 200 Republican ones. These two chambers together form the United States Congress, which now seems to be less of a Republican domain and more open to prolonged political debates as the Democrats’ position has strengthened.

The American President needs congressional approval of most legislation, i.e. the President never makes decisions on their own, but rather needs a confirmation from Congress on most issues. Previously Trump enjoyed the support of a mostly Republican Congress, which often meant that the Democratic party simply didn’t have enough votes to stop bills they disagreed with. With all of the new seats won, the Democrats will be in a better position to voice their concerns and oppose Trump’s legislation. This means that President Trump will have a much harder time from now on until the end of his term.

Another important issue in Trump’s presidency is the Russia investigation. Robert Mueller’s special investigation into whether Russia was in any way involved in the 2016 Presidential elections has been a constant burden to Trump. With Democrats winning back so many positions in Congress, it is now expected that Mueller will be able to continue his investigation with even more force. He might even finally get that interview with President Trump that he has requested as part of the investigation, but which Trump’s lawyers have so far left unanswered.

The Democrats will be able to order other investigations, aside from Mueller’s probe. Something that remains controversial are Donald Trump’s tax returns, which he has refused to share. Critics have suggested that if he had nothing to hide, he would have been more than happy to share them and even flaunt them in the face of his opponents, but his reluctance on the matter makes many suspect him of some kind of tax evasion, which is technically a crime.

Moreover, there has been repeated talk in the past about the Republicans trying to stop Mueller’s Russia investigation and have the special counsel fired. However, the President’s administration is currently under a lot of criticism for the firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and Democrats are already planning multiple courses of action to prevent the same from happening to Mueller. The newly appointed AG Whitaker is biased against the Russia probe, but Democrats have said they might prevent a bill for funding the government in December from passing unless they get an assurance that Mueller’s investigation can continue.

 

[Superfx_official]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart


The price has sunk to 17-month lows and will remain bearish.

Today we would take a look at the EUR/USD currency pair. The euro briefly recovered in the lull preceding the midterm elections in the United States held last Tuesday, but as soon as the results started coming in, meeting the forecasts, the dollar began strengthening again, pushing the euro to its lowest level since June 2017.

Currently we expect the euro to weaken against other currencies. This week we expect key fundamental data about the European economy which is likely to be lukewarm at best and would not support the euro that much. These reports include data on the GDP, as well as inflation for October, both of which are of high importance for pairs with the EUR. More importantly, the euro remains under pressure due to the budgetary issue with Italy, which still has not been resolved. Until the EU and the Italian government agree on a spending plan which does not endanger the eurozone economy, the euro will remain under a lot of stress. Moreover, Brexit is yet another source of insecurity, since no progress has been made in the negotiations.

Things are completely opposite with the American dollar. The USD rallied after the midterm elections results confirmed a win for the Democratic party, which is expected to bring more political stability to the country, since Donald Trump would likely not be able to make snap policy decisions anymore, now that the Congress is not so heavily Republican. The Federal Reserve also expects a smoother sailing ahead, so analysts are confident about a rate hike in December, as well as at least three rate increases in 2019. This, along with positive economic reports, is making the USD soar.

In terms of the daily chart, today we have a pivot point for the pair located at 1.1323, with the price currently well below it. The daily support levels lie at 1.1301 and 1.1308, but the price is below both of them right now. The daily resistances are located at 1.1331 and 1.1338. We expect the price to continue falling today. The indicators of technical analysis and the moving averages are confident in giving us a strong sell recommendation.

 

[Superfx_official]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


The pair found the support level.

The data from the UK at the moment has shown worse than expected results. Thus, labor market indicators point to an increase in unemployment and 4.1% was published instead of the expected 4.0%.

A series of speeches by FOMC members and a report on the implementation of the federal budget for October will take place in the USA today.

On the chart we observe that the pair found support at the 1.2850 mark and corrected from it. However, the pair did not reach the mark of 1.2920 and lost the ascending impulse.

Our technical indicators point to sales. Therefore, we advise you to look for points for entering short positions and consider your goals at the marks of 1.2850 and 1.28.

 

[Superfx_official]

NZD/JPY: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The deals on the trend seem the most effective in the near future after sure growth. Investors will be waiting for the outcome of negotiations between the USA and China in late November.

The rates continue within the downtrend. The trade conflict between the US and China had a negative impact on the value of the NZD, amid the economic downturn in New Zealand and an extremely soft monetary policy. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is also a supporter of the same monetary policy, and the situation in the economy of Japan in general is also not ideal. Nevertheless, the status of the Japanese yen as a safe asset periodically supports this currency and allows it to strengthen, despite the fact that the JPY also depends on the outcome of the trade conflict between the US and China, and in this regard, has been under pressure for a long time.

This month the situation has changed. The New Zealand dollar retreated from many-year lows and rose in price from 72.5 JPY - to 77.2 JPY. The key growth factor was the release of news on the Japanese economy. In addition, there was a negative impact on the value of the JPY due to natural disasters, which led to disruptions in manufacturing amid a growing demand for risky assets. This week the New Zealand dollar continued to receive support with news of the resumption of negotiations to resolve the trade conflict between the US and China. Investors expect the meeting of the US and Chinese leaders in late November and the achievement of some agreement to resolve the conflict. In addition, Japan's GDP data for the third quarter contributed to the rapid growth, which confirms the continuation of the economic recession in the Japanese economy. The GDP decreased by 0.03%, as expected on the market.

Despite the testing and shifting of the resistance line, the rates are likely to continue within the downward trend for a while, amid a significant decrease in volatility which is expected next week, in connection with the upcoming holidays in the US and Japan. In addition, investors will take a wait-and-see position until November 30, when negotiations between the US and China are expected. The news background will not be saturated with macroeconomic statistics. Oscillators (MACD, Stochastic, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the overbought zone, which allows us to speak about the efficiency of the deals on the trend in the near future.

 

[Superfx_official]

What Is up with Brexit?

Theresa May is under pressure to find support for her Brexit draft, but that seems unlikely.

News headlines blew up this week with progress on Brexit. After more than a year of painful stalemate, with the March deadline approaching fast (and considering the deal has to be agreed upon months ahead of that deadline in order for legislation to pass all across the European Union), the United Kingdom and especially Prime Minister Theresa May have been under an immense amount of pressure to produce a deal. So, as of today, where do we stand with Brexit?

The reason why reaching a deal is so difficult in the first place is that what the European Union wants from Britain, and what Britain envisions as a separation from the bloc, are two very different things. The United Kingdom wants to have access to the European single market, but that’s only available for EU members (it is, in fact, one of the most important benefits of being in the union in the first place). Moreover, Northern Ireland is a particularly painful side of the issue, since the Northern Irish party which is backing May’s government wants there to be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is the current state between the two closely related countries. However, the Republic of Ireland is a member of the European Union, while Northern Ireland, as a dominion of the United Kingdom, would be leaving the EU. Normally there would be a border between EU and non-EU countries with border police and customs control. Making an exception for Northern Ireland would be setting a precedent. Another core issue is immigration. A huge reason why Brexiteers wanted out of the EU in the first place was in order to have the right to close the British border to foreign workers and control their own labor market. Nevertheless, if they want to be able to trade with the European Union without paying heavy customs fees and such, the bloc would like to retain the rights of EU citizens to seek employment in the United Kingdom. These are just a few of the core issues that show why it is nearly impossible to craft an agreement on Brexit.

Nevertheless, by all accounts the draft presented this week by PM Theresa May has done it. All of the necessary compromises are in that bill and EU officials have reportedly stated they would back this deal. However, May needs to obtain the approval of the British parliament first before the deal can be officially sent for consideration to the European Union. And here’s where the big problems begin.

In the government’s attempt to appease the European Union, many of the core demands of Brexiteers are not met by the current deal. There are too many compromises for their taste. As a result, the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned this week, saying he did not believe in this deal and could not fight for it. As many as seven other ministers also left the Cabinet this week because they do not support this bill. Theresa May’s own party is currently gathering letters of request in order to call a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister – they require 48 in order for that to happen. As of the writing of this article, they do not have enough and May’s team has stated they do not expect a vote of no confidence. To say that the British parliament is divided over the Brexit deal would be an understatement; some MPs even want a second Brexit referendum, not just a change of leadership.

May’s deal needs about 320 votes in order to pass for Parliamentary approval, and then be used to negotiate with the European Union. However, as of right now it is expected that she would gather only about 260 votes, which would leave her short and would not allow her Cabinet to proceed with the Brexit negotiations. Currently it is expected that the deal will fail to find sufficient support and Brexit negotiations will falter once again. It is a critical moment for the United Kingdom, since a meeting was scheduled with the EU to discuss the deal on November 25, ahead of the G20 summit on November 30 that was seen as the real deadline for reaching an agreement.

 

[Superfx_official]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

We can sell the pair today.

Today we would take a look at the EUR/USD currency pair. After recovering some of its lost ground by November 19, last week the euro softened again and is still losing positions to the dollar.

The European central currency continues to be under the influence of the developments within the eurozone. Fundamental data is narrowly missing its targets, indicating that economic growth in the European Union is slowing down, perhaps a bit faster than expected. This all goes back to political issues - the trade tariffs imposed by Trump which are harming global growth, as well as the internal conflicts with the United Kingdom and Italy. The Italian government gave an indication they might agree to a lower budget deficit and will hold a meeting about it today; if that succeeds, we expect the euro to stabilize a bit more. Moreover, today in the afternoon we expect a speech by ECB President Draghi, which may increase the volatility of pairs with the EUR.

Not much has changed with the American dollar. The data continues to be positive and traders are looking forward to another interest rate increase in December. Thus the pair today will likely be more affected by announcements in Europe than anything within the United States.

In terms of the daily chart, today we have a pivot point for the pair located at 1.1337, with the price currently slightly above it. The daily support levels lie at 1.1333 and 1.1329. The daily resistances are located at 1.1341 and 1.1345. The indicators of technical analysis and the moving averages show some mixed signals, but overall lean towards sell recommendations.

 

[Superfx_official]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


The pair is heading lower.

Since yesterday's trading session, the dollar index has exceeded the 97.00 mark and the USD is strengthening against the basket of major currencies.

The Investing EUR/USD pair index provided today was 41.1%, which indicates a bearish trend.

Considering our chart, we observe that the pair has dropped below the level of 1.1330 and the MA(21) is now crossing the MA(86) from above, which confirms bearish moods. Also, other technical indicators point to the sale.

We believe that the pair will soon update the local minimums on the chart.

Therefore, we advise you to look for points to enter short positions and consider your goals at the 1.1270 and 1.1220 marks.