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Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Admiral Markets, Jun 9, 2014.

  1. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Dear Traders,

    We're convinced that every trade should be backed up by solid financial analysis in order to minimize the risks and maximize the profits. Therefore, we're pleased to offer you technical financial reports prepared by our analysts in order to help you make informed and reasonable trading decisions.

    Our technical reports cover the detailed analysis of various currency pairs traded on the world’s largest financial market. One could base his/her trades on such precise analysis.

    In case you have any questions concerning our financial analysis - feel free to write us, we'll be happy to help you.
     
  2. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Update – Gold and Silver

    Last week, precious metals recovered some of their heavy losses registered during the earlier week. On Monday, the gold prices witnessed a negative closing due to failure of surpassing the resistance levels while the silver prices closed into positive territory backed by early day gains. Following is the technical overview of gold and silver prices.

    GOLD

    •Even after rallying during the last weekend, the yellow metal prices couldn’t break the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its downturn connecting $1309 to $1240. Moreover, the descending trend line, adjoining its recent highs, continues to cap the near-term up move by the bullion.

    •Currently, gold prices are facing strong resistance of $1256-1257 confluence area marked by descending trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level on H4 chart. Should the yellow metal successfully surpasses the mentioned resistance zone, it can rally towards 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level near $1267; however, $1260 - $1261 can provide intermediate resistance to the pair. On the successful encounter of $1267 level, the gold prices are expected to rally towards $1278-80 region as marked by 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its downtrend connecting the August 2013 highs to December 2013 lows, on daily chart.

    •On the downside, psychological support level of $1250, followed by minor support level of $1244, can become immediate rest for the bullion prices, breaking which it can extend its downtrend towards the monthly low of $1240. Should the yellow metal continue its fall after $1240, it is vulnerable to test $1230.

    [​IMG]

    SILVER
    •Silver prices are trading in the range of $18.95 to $19.15 since the white metal surpassed 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its May month’s downturn.

    •Should the silver prices break $19.15, it can rally towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level near $19.30, breaking which 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level near $19.45 can become immediate resistance for the pair. Should it extend its up move beyond $19.45 – 50 region, the silver prices are vulnerable to rally towards $19.70 - $19.80 region.

    •Alternatively, a break below $18.95 is immediately followed by $18.80 and $18.60 support levels, breaking which silver prices are likely to test 2013 low of $18.20.

    [​IMG]

    “Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
     
  3. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    US Indices - Technical Outlook

    On Monday, US stock market initially moved higher with all the three major indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) climbing to record high levels. The indices, however, trimmed some of their gains but still managed to close with modest strength. With very little in term of US economic data scheduled for release during the current week, here is a technical update on the US stock market indices.

    Dow Jones (DJI30)

    The index continues to trade in a well established medium-term uptrend. On short-term chart the index seems slightly overstretched with RSI heading towards overbought zone and prices testing the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel. Hence, we could possibly witness some minor pull-back towards and important resistance turned support near 16,800-16,750 zone, which if broken could force the index to test 16,640-60 area. However, should the index consolidate at current levels and manages to hold above 16,800 mark, it would possibly indicate bullish momentum to continue. The index then could easily surpass the trend-line resistance near 17,000 psychological mark and climb to 17,300 - 100% FE level, also representing the upper trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending channel formation on daily chart.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 (SP500)

    The S&P 500 has been trading in a well established bullish trend, but has touched an important resistance, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending channel. Moreover, RSI above 70 is also indicating slightly overbought conditions for the near-term. Hence, we could possibly witness a minor pull-back towards 1925-26 immediate support area, which if breached could lead to a retest of 1900 psychological mark.

    [​IMG]

    Nasdaq (NQ100)

    Similarly for Nasdaq, RSI above 70 is suggesting a pull-back toward an important resistance turned support near 3745-40 zone. However, as could be seen on daily chart, the index has broken through an important resistance after forming multiple bottoms. The broken resistance levels are sometimes retested and hence, the expected pull-back towards 3745-40 zone. However, in the medium-term the index is likely to continue with its bullish momentum, with the expected up-move till 4000, which happens to be the expected target of the bullish chart pattern formation.

    [​IMG]


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  4. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Outlook – USDCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF

    Yesterday, USDCHF surpassed its 200-day EMA for the first time since September 2013 while the USDCAD maintained its downtrend below 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Following is the technical overview of USDCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF.

    USDCAD

    • Failure to surpass descending trend line resistance seems pushing USDCAD into consolidation zone. Yesterday, the pair continued trading down by maintaining the important support level break of the day before. Currently, 1.0890 – 1.0885 zone becomes immediate layer of support for the pair, breaking which it can test 1.0850, 1.0830 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs) and important support zone of 1.0815 – 1.0810. Should the pair extends its downtrend below 1.0810, it is vulnerable witness multiple supports between 1.0730 – 1.0700 area.

    • Alternatively, 1.0920 – 1.0925, coinciding 100-day EMA and 50% Fibo. level, can provide immediate resistance to the pair, a break of which is closely followed by descending trend line barrier near 1.0950. Sustained trading above 1.0950 level can swiftly pull the pair towards psychological level of 1.1000, also including 38.2% Fibo level. Given the successful trading above 1.1000, the pair can rally towards April highs of 1.1052

    [​IMG]

    USDCHF

    • Yesterday, USDCHF closed above its 200-day EMA for the first time since September 2013; by doing this, the pair also cleared its resistance emanating from descending trend line set since November 2013. From the current level, 0.9035 and 0.9140-45 can become immediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 0.9250-55 region. A sustained trading above 0.9255 fuels enough strength into the pair to extend its up trend towards 0.9390 – 0.9400 resistance zone.

    • Conversely, a trading reversal below the 200-day EMA and descending trend line support, currently near 0.8980-85 region, on the daily closing basis can give room for the traders to expected a test of psychological support level of 0.8900, also accompanying 50-day EMA. A sustained trading below 0.8900 mark can give rise to expectations for the pair to test 0.8850, 0.8770 and the crucial double bottom support level near 0.8700 region.

    [​IMG]

    CADCHF

    • CADCHF again represents the case of CHF weakness as the pair reversed from its 100-day EMA support during the last weekend and closing above its 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of its May 2013 high to March 2014 low down turn, on Tuesday. 0.8280 – 0.8290 region, including May month high, immediately followed by 0.8330-35 area are likely to be immediate resistances for the pair. Should it break above 0.8335 level, the pair can stretch its up move towards 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level near 0.8480-85 zone.

    • On the downside, 0.8210 – 0.8200, including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level and a psychological support, can become immediate rest points for the pair, breaking which it can test 100-day EMA support, currently near 0.8160. A daily closing below 0.8160 gives rise to expectations that the pair can test 0.8060-55 support zone.


    [​IMG]


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  5. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP

    With very little in terms of economic data scheduled for release from the US this week, the US Dollar on Tuesday strengthened against EUR and GBP. This lead to a range-bound trade, with slightly negative bias, for EURGBP cross currency pair. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP.

    EURUSD

    On 4-hour chart, the pair is witnessing some rebound from oversold conditions (RSI dipping below 30), and from the lower trend-line support of a descending channel near 1.3520 level. The pull-back seems more likely to get extended till 1.3580-90 horizontal resistance zone, which if broken could further lift the pair to test the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel. However, considering the ongoing down-trend as depicted by the descending channel, the pair seems more likely to reverse from 1.3580-90 resistance zone and retest last week's ECB decision swing lows of 1.3500 and drift further towards 1.3480 important support

    [​IMG]

    GBPUSD

    Strong employment reports from UK lifted the pair from day's low and the pair might attempt to retest 1.6820 resistance area. As could be seen on 4-hourly chart, the pair now seems to be forming a descending triangle, suggesting a possible reversal back from 1.6820 area towards 1.6700 support, marking horizontal line of the descending triangle. However, a decisive more back above 1.6820 could possibly boost the pair towards 1.6880-1.6900 resistance zone.

    [​IMG]

    EURGBP
    Stronger UK labor market reports helped GBP strengthen against EUR, allowing the pair to drop to its lowest level since Dec. 2012. Moreover, the descending channel formation on 4-hourly chart also confirms a well established downtrend for the currency pair. Hence, any pull-back towards 0.8080-0.8100 zone might get sold into and the pair is more likely to resume its near-term descending trend. The resumption of weakening trend might drag the pair towards testing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, near 0.8000 psychological mark.

    [​IMG]

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  6. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Update - Important JPY Pairs

    On Wednesday, the Japanese currency (JPY) registered gains against its major rivals, USD, EUR and GBP. Investors now await for the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision on Friday, where the central bank is not expected to change its monetary policy stance. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for important JPY cross currency pairs - USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY

    USDJPY

    Although the pair dropped below 102.00 mark on Wednesday, it still seems to have stuck in a 100-pip trading range. On 1-hour char the pair continues trading in a descending trend-channel and on daily chart the pair seems to form a descending triangle. Both these formations suggest a probable break on the downside. However, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break below 102.00 mark on 1-hour chart for a possible immediate down move till 101.75, the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, and further to 101.60, 200-day SMA support. Alternatively, until the pair continues holding above 102.00 mark, there remains a possibility of a bounce back to 102.25-30 resistance area, comprising of 100-day SMA and upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel on 1-hour chart.

    [​IMG]

    EURJPY

    Following a break below 200-day SMA and subsequent break below the lower trend-line support of a symmetrical triangular formation on daily charts, the pair now is showing clear signs of a possible near-term weakness. Furthermore, an attempt to move back above the break-down point seems to have been rejected on Thursday, thus confirming the short-term vulnerability of the pair to continue drifting lower and retest 2014 lows, 136.50-30 zone. Any bounce back, led by short-term oversold conditions is likely to be capped at 200-day SMA, currently near 139.00 mark.

    [​IMG]

    GBPJPY

    The pair has repeatedly failed to surpass 173.20-50 zone, forming multiple top. However, it has still managed to hold a medium-term ascending trend-line support, currently near 171.00-170.70 zone, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. These formations suggests continuation of range-bound trade for the pair. Only a clear break below 100-day SMA support might trigger a short-term downward momentum towards testing April-May 2014 lows of 169.50 level. Meanwhile, a move above Thursday's high of 171.85 might provide additional boost for a 100-pip up-move till 172.75 horizontal resistance zone.

    [​IMG]


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  7. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Update - EURAUD and USDCHF

    EURAUD

    The pair continues witnessing selling pressure that started since the beginning of this year. The daily RSI has fallen below 30 and the pair is trading very close to an intermediate support near 1.4350. Hence, the pair could see some minor bounce back to 1.4440-50 zone from current short-term oversold conditions. Meanwhile, medium-term outlook continues to look bearish and a fall below 1.4350 could immediately drag the pair to 1.4300. Further, a break below 1.4350 would increase the vulnerability of the pair to continue its near-term weakness towards 141.70-50 support area.

    [​IMG]

    USDCHF

    The pair once again rejected 0.9000 handle, indicating a very strong resistance near 0.9000 psychological mark. A move above 200-day SMA seems to triggered a short-term trend reversal but now it seems that the actual trend reversal would be confirmed only once the pair decisively conquers and closes above 0.9000 level. A decisive strength and close above 0.9000 seems to trigger accelerated up-move towards 0.9140 resistance area. Until this important barrier is not cleared decisively, there remains the possibility of the pair retesting 200-day SMA support, that currently stands near 0.8960 level.

    [​IMG]

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  8. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical outlook: NZDUSD and AUDUSD

    Early today, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced their official cash rate hike for the third time during the current year, the move fuelled NZDUSD to gain over 1% by testing the highest level since May 15th. On the other hand, the AUDUSD continued its upward march even with weaker employment numbers and traded near April 15th high. Following is the brief technical overview of both these currency pairs.

    NZDUSD

    • Having surpassed 50-day EMA on a closing basis, the NZDUSD successfully countered 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its recent up move from February lows to May high. From the current level, multiple resistances near psychological level of 0.8700 can become immediate barrier for the pair before it rallies to 0.8745 and the yearly high of 0.8780. Should the pair breaks the May high, it is vulnerable to extend its up move towards 61.8% Fibonacci Extension of same move connecting February low to May high near 0.8850 level.

    • On the downside, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level, near the psychological level of 0.8600, becomes important support for the pair, breaking which there is much room for the pair to test 100-day EMA, which also coincides 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level, near 0.8500. Should the pair continue its downtrend below 0.8500, multiple support zone of 0.8410 – 0.8400, which also includes 50% Fibonacci retracement, becomes important for the pair.

    • The fundamental signal by RBNZ to further inflate their official cash rate during the upcoming years can continue to strengthen NZDUSD. However, considering the current level of RSI (near 65), chances of a pullback can’t be denied if the pair fails to break 0.8700 on a closing basis.


    [​IMG]

    AUDUSD

    • The ascending trend line continued signaling AUDUSD strength in recent days. The pair is currently trading near two months’ high and is likely to face multiple resistances near 0.9425, 0.9440 and the year’s high of 0.9460. Should the pair extends it up move beyond the high of April 10th and a four-and-a-half month high near 0.9460, it is vulnerable to extend its upward move towards multiple resistance zone of 0.9515 – 0.9525, encompassing 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn.

    • However, given the failure to continue its up move, the ascending trend line and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level can provide immediate support to the pair near 0.9340 – 0.9335 region, breaking which it can test 0.9280 level. Should the pair continue trading below 0.9280, 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level can become important supports for the pair near 0.9220 – 0.9205 area.


    [​IMG]


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  9. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Outlook: AUDUSD, USDCAD and USDJPY

    Last week, the Japanese Yen and the Canadian Dollar gained against its US counterpart; the move was well stretched during the current week. Nevertheless, the greenback continued its upward trajectory against its Australian counterpart which was well supported by today’s release of minutes from RBA’s recent meeting stating more dovish tone of the policy makers.

    Meanwhile, following is the brief technical overview of AUDUSD, USDCAD and USDJPY.

    AUDUSD

    • The Aussie failed to surpass horizontal line resistance level near 0.9440 during the last week and consequently fell today to 0.9335 as signaled by 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn. A continuation of downtrend below 0.9335 is immediately followed by 0.9315 and the psychological level of 0.9300. On the consequent trading below 0.9300, the pair is vulnerable to witness 0.9250 (200-day EMA), 0.9235 (100-day EMA) and 0.9205 -0.9200 zone (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Further, a sustained trading below 0.9200 level negates the chances of near term up move by the pair and opens the door of 0.9130 level to test.
    • On the upside, the pair is likely to witness multiple resistances near 0.9405, 0.9425, 0.9440 and 0.9460 levels. Should the pair extends it up move beyond the high of April 10th and a four-and-a-half month high near 0.9460, it is vulnerable to extend its upward move towards multiple resistance zone of 0.9515 – 0.9525, encompassing 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn.


    [​IMG]

    USDCAD

    • During the last week, USDCAD continued trading southwards after it fell below its 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs. Yesterday, the pair tested its 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level support near 1.0830; however, it reversed from the support level and traded positively today by making the high of 1.0860. From the current level, 1.0885 can become immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which it can head towards 1.0910 – 1.0920, coinciding 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. A daily close above 1.0920 can be immediately followed by the descending trend line descending trend line barrier near 1.0950. Sustained trading above 1.0950 level can swiftly pull the pair towards psychological level of 1.1000, also including 38.2% Fibo level.
    • Alternatively, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level support near 1.0830 becomes immediate for the pair to test, breaking which the pair is likely to test crucial horizontal line support near 1.0815 – 1.0810 zone. Should the pair extends its downtrend below 1.0810, it is vulnerable witness multiple supports between 1.0730 – 1.0700 area.


    [​IMG]

    USDJPY

    • Even after falling from 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move connecting September lows to December highs, the USDJPY couldn’t witness considerable downfall and managed to be supported by its 200-day SMA, near to 101.65 level at present. The pair seems trading in the range of 101.60 and 102.20 as signaled by 200-day SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level and 100-day SMA. A break below 101.60 can make the pair to test 101.30, immediately followed by a psychological support of 101 which also encompasses 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A sustained trading below 101 is likely to be followed by 100.50 and 100 level, coinciding 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. On the consequent trading below 100 level, the pair can become vulnerable to test 98.80 level by negating the chances of near-term up move.
    • On the upside, a sustained trading above 102.20 can fuel the pair to test 102.80 and 103.30 – 103.40 region, including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A daily closing above 103.40 can propel the pair towards 104.10 level which can become the early signal for the pair to surpass 105 level.

    [​IMG]


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  10. Admiral Markets

    Admiral Markets AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

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    Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

    On Monday, the US Dollar lost some weight against EUR and GBP even as better-than-expected the industrial production data and Empire State manufacturing index showed improving manufacturing activity in the US. Investors now await for the FOMC's latest monetary policy decision, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, in order to determine the near-term fate of the US Dollar. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP.

    EURUSD

    As could be seen on 4-hourly chart, the pair continued with its rebound from near-term oversold conditions and from the lower trend-line support of a descending channel formation. The pull-back now seems to have halted near 1.3580-85 horizontal area, breaking which the pair seems to extend the up-move towards the upper trend-line resistance near 1.3630 level. Further, taking into consideration the prevailing medium-term down-trend, the pair seems unlikely to clear the 1.3630 resistance and resume the depreciating move initially towards ECB decision swing lows of 1.3500 and further towards 1.3480 important support area.

    [​IMG]

    GBPUSD

    Prospects of an earlier than expected rate-hike by BoE continued supporting the pair, which rose to the highest level since Aug. 2009. The pair seems to be topping near 1.7000 mark but has managed to hold 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from sub-1.6700 level to nearly a 5-year high touched yesterday. A drop below 1.6940 level, has the potential to drag the pair towards testing 1.6900 area. Medium-term prospects for the pair continue to remain bullish and hence, a drop back to 1.6900 could be seen as a possible buying opportunity by the traders.

    [​IMG]

    EURGBP

    The pair continues to trade in a well-established downtrend and is currently witnessing a minor pull-back from oversold conditions (RSI below 30) on daily chart and an important support near 0.7960, marked by the lower trend-line of a descending channel formation. A break below this important support opens up room for further downward pressure for the pair towards 0.7800-0.7790 support area. Further, consolidation below 0.8040-50 area would possibly confirm a break below the lower trend-line support and continuation of the descending trend. However, considering the near-term oversold conditions, there seems a fair possibility of a minor pull-back initially towards 0.8000, which could possibly get extended maximum till 0.8040-0.8050.

    [​IMG]


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