Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

Technical outlook – CADCHF and EURJPY

CADCHF continued trading above its 100-day EMA ever since the breakout took place during early May. The pair did test the same moving average on the start of the June but reversed during the last week after weaker economic signals from Switzerland fueled the pair. Market players are waiting for quarterly release of SNB’s monetary policy assessment in order to determine the strength of CHF. Further, ECB’s interest rate cut continued weakening the EUR against its major counterparts; however, the recent release of minutes for BoJ provided weakness to JPY, causing the EURJPY to test the highest level in more than a week. Meanwhile, following is the brief technical overview of CADCHF and EURJPY.

CADCHF

  • Even after reversing from 100-day EMA and crossing 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level if its May 2013 to March 2014 downfall, during last week, the pair seems incapable to breaking multiple resistance zone of 0.8300, which is closely followed by another horizontal resistance zone near 0.8330. Should the pair continue trading above 0.8330, it can rally towards 0.8410, breaking which the pair is likely to surpass 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level and can test 0.8530-35 resistance zone. A sustained trading above 0.8535 negates the chances of near-term downtrend by fuelling the pair towards 0.8650 region.

  • On the downside, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level near 0.8310 becomes immediate support for the pair, breaking which the 100-day EMA continued to become critical support for the pair near 0.8170-65 region. A daily close below 0.8165, can weaken the pair towards testing 0.8040 levels.

  • Inability to surpass horizontal line resistances, coupled with downward slopping RSI, signals that the pair is vulnerable to re-test its 100-day EMA.


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EURJPY

  • Having failed to close below 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of June 2013 to December 2013 up move, the pair seems reversing towards its immediate resistance level of 200-day SMA near 139 level, breaking which 140 level, coinciding 50-day SMA, becomes consequent resistance for the pair. On the sustained trading above 140 level, the pair is vulnerable to test 140.80 – 141.00 resistance zone, encompassing descending trend line, stretched from December 2013, together with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

  • On the downside, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level, near 137.70, can become immediate support for the pair, breaking which psychological support level of 137 can become intermediate support before the pair can test 136.00 - 135.90 region. A sustained trading below 135.90 can make the pair vulnerable to test important support level of 135.30, coinciding multiple support levels near 50% Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

  • Even though, the pair did reverse from 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level, it continues to trade below its 200-day SMA. Moreover, the descending trend line on prices and RSI can become another signal for the continuation of downtrend in near term.


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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - US Indices

On Wednesday, the FOMC decided, in-line with market expectations, to continue tapering its monthly bond purchases by another $10 Billion to $35 Billion per month. The US equity indices, however, picked-up steam as the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, during her press conference after the FOMC decision announcement, gave no clear signal as to when the Fed could begin hiking interest rates.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on all the three major US stock market indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq).

Dow Jones (DJI30)

As could be seen on daily chart, the index is trading in a well established medium-term up-trend and is now holding within a short-term ascending trend-channel. These medium and short-term formations indicate continuation of the bullish momentum. The index now seems more likely to surpass the 17,000 psychological mark resistance and continue climbing to 17,250-17,300 resistance zone, marking the confluence point of the upper trend-line resistance levels of the medium and short-term ascending channels. However, a break back below 16,800 horizontal support might now trigger a corrective move towards the lower trend-line support of the short-term ascending channel, that currently stands near 16,650-16,670 level.

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S&P 500 (SP500)

The S&P 500 touched a record high on Wednesday and moved closer to a very important strong resistance near 1960 region, which constitutes of the upper trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending channel and 100% Fibonacci Expansion Level. Moreover, RSI (near 70) is also indicating slightly near-term overbought conditions, probably indicating a range-bound trade, with possibly a very limited potential for a big up-move in the near-term.

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Nasdaq (NQ100)

Nasdaq, on the other hand, has rebounded after retesting an important broken resistance near 3750 area, which now seem to have turned into an immediate support area. The index had broken through this important resistance after forming multiple bottoms. In the immediate short-term the index seems all set to continue the up-move and test upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending channel, near 3850 level. In the medium-term the index is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with the expected bullish momentum to continue till 4000 round figure mark, which also happens to be the expected target of the multiple bottoms, bullish chart pattern formation.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
The Mixed Play of CAD and CHF


During the last week, strong inflation and retail sales numbers from Canada provided nearly 100-pips of gain to CAD against its US counterpart while the USDCHF lost nearly 50-pips, pulling back the pair from its descending trend channel resistance, even if the SNB cited financial risk in its annual financial stability report. The current week started with one more positive for CAD in terms of the improved Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI while the Swiss trade surplus, released on early Tuesday, tested to the highest level since December 2012.

USDCAD

  • Having breached 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move, connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs, the USDCAD continued drifting lower towards important horizontal line support zone near 1.0710 – 1.0700, breaking which the pair becomes vulnerable to test ascending trend line support, stretched from September 2012, near 1.0630 - 1.0625. Should it successfully trades down below this crucial support, the pair can test sub 1.0500 level with December 2013 lows near 1.0560 becoming intermediate support.
  • A reversal from the current level gives rise to expectations that the pair can test its immediate resistance level of 76.4% Fibo. level near 1.0730, breaking which it is likely to rally towards 200-day EMA and psychological resistance near 1.0800. A break of 1.0800 is immediately followed by the 1.0830-1.0840 resistance zone, breaking which chances that the pair can restore its last weekly loss can’t be denied.

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USDCHF
  • Last week’s decline of USDCHF nullified the breakout of descending trend channel registered during the previous week. For the time being, upper line of descending trend channel, stretched from November 2013, and the 200-day SMA becomes immediate resistances for the pair near 0.8950-0.8970 area, breaking which the pair can witness multiple resistances between 0.9000-0.9010 zone. Should the pair successfully closes above 0.9010, it is vulnerable to head towards yearly high of 0.9156; however, 0.9070-75 can provide intermediate resistance to the pair.
  • On the downside, 50-day SMA can provide immediate support to the pair near psychological level of 0.8900, breaking which the pair can witness multiple supports near 0.8810-0.8800 area. On the successful encounter of 0.8800, the pair can extend its downtrend towards 0.8700-0.8695 crucial support zone with 0.8750-45 being intermediate supports.

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CADCHF
  • Even though, both CAD and CHF strengthened against USD the CAD seems much stronger than its Swiss counterpart. Yesterday, the CADCHF closed above its 200-day EMA for the first time since July 2013, signaling the up-move towards 0.8360 - 0.8370 resistance zone, breaking which the pair can be open to test 0.8460-0.8465 resistance zone comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A daily close above 0.8465 can make the pair vulnerable to test 0.8600 mark; however, January high near 0.8530 can become intermediate resistance for the pair.
  • On the downside, 0.8315 - 0.8310 is likely to become immediate support for the pair, including 200-day EMA, breaking which the pair can extend its downtrend towards 0.8230 - 0.8215 support zone which encompasses 23.6% Fibo. level and multiple support levels. A break of 0.8215 is closely followed by the 100-day EMA support near 0.8170. Should the pair provides a daily close below 0.8170, chances of near-term up move by the pair can be denied which makes it vulnerable to test near 0.8070 levels.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - Important Euro Pairs

On Monday, the Euro-zone currency, EUR, witnessed range bound moves, registering minor loss against GBP and JPY but recorded some minor gain against USD. The currency lost some significant weight against the Australian counterpart (AUD). Investors now look ahead for some important economic events lined-up during the up-coming week in anticipation of the Forex market moving out of its recent low-volatility, range-bound moves. Meanwhile, here is a technical update on EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD and EURJPY.

EURUSD

The pull-back continues to face hindrance by a descending trend-line resistance near 1.3620-30 resistance, which if conquered seems to lift the pair towards 1.3680-90 horizontal resistance. Alternatively, a drop back below 1.3600-1.3590 support area, marked by an ascending trend-line support, could possibly open-up the room for further downfall 1.3520-1.3500 important support. The formation of a symmetrical triangle on 4-hour chart suggest continuation of a range-bound trade unless the same is breached either way

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EURGBP

The pair continues holding its important support near 0.7980-60 area, representing the lower trend-line support of a descending trend channel formation on daily chart. From current levels the pair could possibly continue with the rebound till 23.6% Fib. retracement level, 0.8050-60 zone, which could further get extended till 0.8090-0.8100 horizontal resistance area. However, a break back below 0.8000 mark, might force the pair to drift lower and test the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 0.7940.

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EURAUD

The pair seems to have found good support near 1.4380-60 zone and is now witnessing a pull-back, which seems to get extended till 1.4530 resistance area marked by a descending trend-line on 4-hour chart. A decisive move above the trend-line resistance could possibly boost the pair further towards an important support break point, now turned resistance, near 1.4600 region. Meanwhile, on the downside 1.4440 now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if the pair fails to hold, has the potential to drag the pair back below 1.4400 area towards a very important support near 1.4360 level.

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EURJPY

The pair continues to move in a 100-pip trading range between 138.00-139.00 zone and is not showing any clear signal of the possible near-term trend. A break above 139.00 mark, the top-end of the trading range also coinciding with 100-day SMA, could accelerate the up-move towards 140.00 mark. Alternatively, a drop below 138.40 now, leading to weakness below 138.00 would possibly signal the upcoming near-term weakness for the pair. The pair then might continue to weaken in the near-term towards 136.20-136.00 support zone.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical outlook: Gold and Silver

Last week, gold and silver prices rallied after clearing important resistance levels as the much awaited FOMC, with its annual release of inflation and growth forecast, provided considerable weakness to the US Dollar. Moreover, geo-political tensions in Iraq continued to support the safe haven demand of the precious metals.

GOLD

  • Having cleared 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its December 2013 to April 2014 up-move, the yellow metal has been trading sideways during the current week. The upside seems capped by $1328-30 region, breaking which it is likely to rally towards $1342-44 region comprising 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. On a clear break of $1344, gold prices can rally towards $1373-75 resistance zone, which includes descending trend line connecting the highs of August 2013 to March 2014; however, $1355-56 can become intermediate resistance for the metal prices.
  • On the downside, strong support of $1302 - $1300 zone, including 200-day EMA, becomes immediate for the gold prices, breaking which it is likely to test $1295 levels which is closely followed by $1288-86 region, including 50-day EMA, 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Should the metal extend its downtrend below $1286, it is likely to test $1270 region.

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SILVER

  • Silver prices also followed gold as they remained sideways near 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its June 2013 to August 2013 up-move. On the upside, the descending trend line, which connects September and October 2013 levels to February 2014 high, can provide immediate resistance to the white metal near $21.28-30, breaking which it is likely to rally towards $21.65 – 80 region. Should it continue trading above $21.80 levels, $22.18-20 and $22.48-60 can become immediate resistances.
  • Alternatively, 200-day EMA near $20.50 becomes immediate support for the white metal, breaking which it is likely to extend its down trend towards $20 and $19.88-85 (including 100-day EMA and 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level). On the successful trade below $19.85, the silver prices can become vulnerable to test $19.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY

On Tuesday, the US Dollar rose both against GBP and JPY on the back of stronger-than-expected new home sales and consumer confidence data from the US. Moving forwards, upcoming important economic releases could possibly infuse some volatility and move the Forex market out of its recent low-volatility, range-bound moves. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY.

GBPUSD

On Tuesday, GBP fell against USD back below 1.7000 mark after comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney raised doubts of the possible timing of the first interest-rate hike by the central bank. Prospects of an earlier than expected rate-hike had lifted the pair to the highest level since Aug. 2009. Repeated failure to hold above 1.7000 mark seems to confirm short-term top for the pair at 1.7000 handle. Although, the pair has now managed to find some minor support near 1.6950-40 area, but any bounce towards 1.7000 could possibly be rejected and the pair seems to drop back below 1.6940 level, which if broken has the potential to further drag the pair towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 1.6920-1.6900 area.

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USDJPY

The pair has narrowed its trading range, as is depicted by a symmetrical triangular formation on 4-hourly chart. Also on daily chart, the pair has been bouncing between 100-day SMA immediate resistance and 200-day SMA immediate support, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance and lower trend-line support of the symmetrical triangular formation. Considering the recent price action within a tight range, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break on either side before initiating any fresh trade position. A decisive break below 101.80 support might now trigger immediate downfall towards 100.80 area. Alternatively, strength above 102.00-102.20 resistance zone seems to boost the pair towards 103.00 mark.

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GBPJPY

The pair once again failed to surpass its 2014 high and dropped back below 173.00 mark and now seems to continue drifting lower toward testing the lower trend-line support of an ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, near 172.30 level. A drop below 172.30 support could possibly infuse additional near-term weakness for the pair towards retesting 171.00 mark, also coinciding with 100-day SMA support. Meanwhile, a move back above 173.20-40 immediate strong resistance could now trigger accelerated up-move for the pair immediate towards 2014 highs, 174.50-80 zone.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - US Indices

On Wednesday, the US equity indices initially opened sharply lower on the back of weaker-than-expected revision of first-quarter USD GDP growth rate and greater-than-expected fall in durable goods orders. The indices, however, recovered from day's low to close near day's high. Investors now await for the release of weekly jobless claims later on Thursday and monthly jobs report, scheduled for release next Friday, as a possible catalyst in order to decide the near-term trend of the market.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for all the three major US equity indices - Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq100.

Dow Jones [DJI30]

The index has managed to hold and rebound from its intermediate horizontal resistance turned support near 16,800-16,750 area, signaling the continuation of the longer-term bull run. From current levels, the index could possibly continue with the bullish momentum and surpass an important psychological mark resistance near 17,000 and climb to 17,300 level in the near-term, representing the intersection of the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term and a medium-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. However, a drop back below 16,800-16,750 mark would suggest the upcoming short interruption of the ongoing bull-run. A decisive break below 16,800 could immediately force the index to test the lower trend-line support of the short-term ascending channel, near 16,700. Moreover, weakness below 16,700 mark could possibly infuse additional near-term weakness towards 16,350 support area representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Feb.-June 2014 upswing.

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S&P 500 [SP500]

The index continues to face headwind near the upper trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending channel, also coinciding with 100% Fib. expansion level. Considering that the index is retracing from a very important resistance area, there is an increased possibility that the index could possibly consolidate or even witness some corrective move in the near-term. A breach below 1950 immediate support could push the index lower towards testing a very important psychological mark of 1900. On the upside 1970 continues remains immediate strong hurdle for the index and only a decisive strength above this strong resistance could open room for further near-term appreciation for the index.

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Nasdaq [NQ100]

The index has decisively closed above 3800 round figure mark and now seems all set to continue the bullish momentum towards 3850-3880 resistance zone. However, a break back below 3800-3790 immediate support might trigger a sharp pull-back immediately towards 3750-45 horizontal support and further towards 3700 support area representing the lower trend-line support of an ascending trend-channel formation on daily charts. It should be noted that The short to medium-term outlook for the index remains bullish with the expected up-move till 4000 mark.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”,
 
Technical Outlook - GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD

On Thursday, the US Dollar weakness against GBP accelerated after the BoE, in its Financial Stability report, tightened mortgage lending rules. Also, the US Dollar continued weakening against AUD and NZD in wake of lower-than-expected US economic data. Given the backdrop, here is a technical outlook on GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

GBPUSD
Following the release of BoE's Financial Stability report, the pair rebounded from 1.6950-40 intermediate support to reclaim 1.7000 mark. A weekly close above 1.7000 would support the prospects of further appreciation in the up-coming week. Moreover, formation of a continuation chart pattern, Pennant, on 4-hour chart, indicates continuation of the strong bullish momentum. Hence, a move above 1.7050 seems to trigger further up-move towards 1.7120 resistance area, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending channel formation on daily chart. However, should the pair fail to provide any follow-up move and drop back below 1.6950-40 support area, the pair then seems more likely to drift lower to test 1.6900 support area, with the short-term corrective move expected to continue till 1.6810-1.6800 zone, representing the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel.

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AUDUSD
The pair continues facing headwind near a very strong resistance area near 0.9440-60 zone. However, on daily charts the pair has confirmed a break above a descending trend-line resistance and on 4-hour chart has been finding good support at an ascending trend-line. These set-up suggests that the pair is more likely to break past the 0.9440-60 resistance area and continue with its upward trajectory in the near-term towards 0.9600 level, with an immediate upside seen till 0.9510-30 horizontal resistance zone. On the downside, 0.9330 area might act as immediate strong support and hence a decisive break below 0.9330 could possibly negate the near-term bullish outlook for the pair.

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NZDUSD
The pair managed to register a fresh 2014 closing high on Thursday and after nearly testing 0.8800 handle on Friday, the pair is witnessing some pull-back from the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending channel formation on weekly chart. Considering that the pair might continue to confront resistance near 0.8800 handle, the pair could possibly witness some corrective move towards 0.8680-60 horizontal support zone. Any near-term up-move beyond 0.8800 could possibly be capped at 0.8840-50 resistance zone, comprising of July 2011 highs and 61.8% Fib. expansion level. However, medium-term prospects for the pair still remains bullish and hence traders would possibly utilize the dip to initiate fresh long positions.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Overview - Important Major Currency Pairs

On Monday, the US Dollar posted another day of losses against most major currencies as mixed US economic data, Chicago PMI falling for June and pending home sales rising to eight month high, continue confusing market participants and fueling worries over the economic growth in 2014 for the world's largest economy. Investors now brace themselves for some important economic releases, which could possibly lead to some meaningful trend in the Forex market. Meanwhile, here is a technical update for some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF.

EURUSD

The pair nearly touched 1.3700 mark marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance of May-June corrective move. From current levels a move above 1.3700 is likely to accelerate the gains immediately towards 1.3730 resistance zone. Moreover, a decisive move above 1.3700 could possibly negate any short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair, in the near-term, could easily climb back to 1.3800 area, representing 61.8% Golden Fib. retracement level resistance. On the downside, 1.3660 now seems to protect immediate downside, which if broken could drag the pair back towards 1.3620-10 important resistance turned support area, coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

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GBPUSD

The pair surpassed 1.7100 mark for the first time since Oct. 2008 and is now trading very close to the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending channel formation near 1.7130-40 zone. Also, daily RSI has moved above 70 and is suggesting slightly near-term overbought conditions. Hence, there is a fair possibility that the pair might witness some profit booking move from current level and possibly drop to 1.7060-50 horizontal support. However, a decisive strength above 1.7130-40 resistance area, marking a break above the ascending trend channel, could continue boosting the pair further towards 1.7200-1.7220 zone, 100% Fib. expansion level resistance.
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AUDUSD

Tuesday's RBA decision to maintain status-quo monetary policy stance bumped the pair towards retesting a very strong resistance near 0.9440-60 area. Considering that the pair has been repeatedly attempting to conquer the strong resistance area, a decisive move above 0.9460 could possibly open room for immediate short-term appreciation for the pair towards 0.9600 level, with intermediate upside resistance near 0.9510-30 zone. However, failure to climb above a strong resistance and a drop back below 0.9420-0.9400 immediate horizontal support could possibly drag the pair back towards testing a very important support near 0.9330 region, which if breached might negate the bullish outlook for the pair.

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USDCHF

After repeatedly failing to clear 0.9000 psychological mark, the pair on Monday dropped to 100-day SMA support near 0.8870 level and is currently hovering around those levels. Considering that the pair has reversed from a very important psychological resistance and is on the verge of breaking below an important support, a move below 0.8850 level is likely to infuse additional near-term weakness for the pair towards 0.8750 horizontal support area. However, should the pair manage to rebound from the 100-day SMA support it is likely to appreciate towards 0.8900 mark. The up-move could further get extended to 200-day SMA, currently at 0.8950 level. A move back above 200-day now seems to provide the required thrust to surpass 0.9000 psychological mark resistance and trigger near-term appreciating move for the pair, even beyond 0.9100 mark towards 0.9140 level.

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USDJPY

Following a break below the 200-day SMA support, the pair seems to have confirmed a break-down from its recent trading range. The pair, however, has found some intermediate support near 101.20 level and is currently witnessing a bounce back in a possible developed down-trend. The pull-back could extend till 200-day and 100-day SMA and seems unlikely to be extended beyond 102.00. The pair is more likely to resume its descending trend and drop towards 100.80 support area, marked by a horizontal support line that constitutes towards formation of a descending triangle on daily chart. A break below the horizontal line support or even a close below 101.00 mark would suggest continuation of the near-term downtrend towards testing sub-100.00 psychological mark.

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Outlook – USDCAD and NZDUSD

Having witnessed second consecutive weekly loss, the US Dollar started the week with a negative closing on Monday due to mixed economic signals. However, the greenback secured positive closing against majority of its counterparts on the second day of the week, even with lesser than forecast ISM Manufacturing, as optimistic expectations from ADP Non-farm Employment Change, scheduled for release later today, caused market players to be on the Dollar’s side. In the meantime, the following is a technical outlook for USDCAD and NZDUSD pairs.

USDCAD

  • Ever since the pair broke below its 200-day EMA, it continued drifting lower and countered the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move, connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs. The pair is currently testing the ascending trend line support, stretched from September 2012, near 1.0625-1.0620 region. Sustained downfall below this support range could make the pair test the lowest level since December 2013 near 1.0550, breaking which it is vulnerable to extend its downtrend towards horizontal support level near 1.0470. On the consequent trading below 1.0470, the pair can test 1.0370 – 1.0360 support zone.
  • Should the pair reverses from the current level, 76.4% Fibo. level near 1.0730 can become strong resistance for the pair, breaking which 200-day EMA near 1.0795 – 1.0800 range is likely to cap the near-term up move of the pair. On the sustained trading above 1.0800, the pair is likely to head towards 1.0900 levels; however, 61.8% Fibo. level near 1.0830 – 1.0835 can become intermediate resistance for the pair.
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NZDUSD

  • NZDUSD has been trading sideways near three year high in recent days. From the current level, last weekly high of 0.8794 becomes immediate resistance for the pair to test, breaking which ascending trend line, connecting the highs of May and October 2013 to the May 2014 high, and the record level of July 2011 becomes the concern for up-move of the pair near 0.8840 – 0.8850 region.
  • However, failure to rally above 0.8800 together with overbought levels of RSI signal a mild pullback towards 0.8730 and 0.8700 levels, breaking which the pair can test 0.8640 – 0.8635 support zone. Should the pair continue trading down below 0.8635, important resistance turned support level, also including 100-day SMA, near 0.8555-0.8540 can become important for the pair.
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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
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