Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - Important GBP and EUR Pairs

Stronger-than-expected UK PMI figures on Tuesday and Wednesday (manufacturing and construction PMI) continued to boost GBP against most major rivals. EUR performance, meanwhile, remained mixed against the Australian (AUD) and Japanese (JPY) counterpart.

Investors now await for the center of attraction from this week's busy economic calendar, ECB monetary policy decision and US NFP data for the month of June, both scheduled on Thursday. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on important GBP and EUR cross currency pairs - GBPAUD, GBPJPY, EURGBP, EURAUD and EURJPY.

GBPAUD
The pair continues hovering around 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to April 2014 corrective move and is attempting to decisively break above a descending triangular formation on daily chart. Should the pair manage to sustain the strength above 1.8175, it would probably negate the bearish formation and the pair could easily climb to 1.8300 mark with the near-term prospects of further appreciation to 1.8430-50 resistance zone, representing 50% retracement level. However, failure to conquer 1.8175 resistance and a drop back below 1.8050 support, could increase the vulnerability of the pair and the pair could then test the lower trend-line support of the triangular formation, currently near 1.7870-50 zone.

GBPJPY
Although the pair seems all set to continue appreciating after clearing a strong resistance near 173.50 area, it is however, likely to confront with another strong resistance near 174.80-175.00 area, representing the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel and also coinciding with the highs touched in Jan. 2014. A clear strength above this resistance area could further lift the pair towards 176.00-176.20 resistance zone, marked by 61.8% Fib. expansion level. Alternatively, a move back below 173.50 strong resistance turned immediate support, seems to drag the pair back towards testing sub-173.00 area, 172.70 level representing the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel.

EURGBP
The pair continued with the well established descending trend and on Wednesday dropped to a fresh 2014 lows. The current downfall seems more likely to continue till 0.7930 support, representing the lower trend-line support of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. A decisive break below the lower trend-line support, marking a break below the descending channel, might continue exerting pressure in the near-term. The pair, then, might continue its weakening trend towards testing another major support near 0.7800 mark. Any bounce-back from 0.7930 area is now likely to confront immediate resistance near 0.8000 round figure mark, which if breached might strengthen the pair, even beyond 0.8030-40 intermediate resistance, to 0.8090-0.8100 horizontal resistance zone.

EURAUD
The pair failed to conquer its immediate strong resistance near 1.4530-50 area, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel on 4-hour chart. The pair is now heading back towards a very important support near 1.4400 mark, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel. Should the pair fail to hold and decisive break below this important support, it seems more likely to drop below 1.4350, lows touched in June 2014, and continue depreciating immediately to 1.4300 round figure horizontal support area. Alternatively, a pull-back from 1.4400 support area might now be facing an immediate resistance near 1.4500 mark. However, major resistance on the upside continue to remain at the upper trend-line resistance area, currently near 1.4550-60 zone. Only a break above this resistance area could trigger a short-covering rally initially to 1.4600-10 zone and later towards 1.4730-40 resistance area.

EURJPY
After dropping below 200-day SMA, the pair bounce from a medium-term ascending trend-line support near 138.00-1.37.90 area, to retest the support break level of 200-day SMA. Although, the pair now seems to have confirmed a near-term bearish trend, but the same would be confirmed once the pair decisively breaks below the trend-line support. A decisive break below 138.00 level would clearly signal the up-coming near-term weakness for the pair and the pair might continue weakening towards 136.40-20 horizontal support zone. Meanwhile, any retracement from current levels could possibly be capped at 200-day SMA resistance, and only a decisive strength above this resistance might negate near-term bearish outlook. A move back above 200-day SMA could possibly lift the pair immediately towards 100-day SMA, currently near 140.30-40, and further towards 141.00 mark, also coinciding with the descending trend-line resistance extending from highs tested in Dec. 2013 and during March, April, May 2014.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – Gold and Silver

Geo-political crisis in Iraq and Syria coupled with the US Dollar weakness strengthened precious metal prices during the last month. Gold prices gained more than 6% while the Silver prices tested three months’ high by gaining nearly 12% during the month of June. The current month started with the good news from ETF front as gold assets in the SPDR, world’s largest bullion backed ETF, registered an increase of 1.4% to 796.4 tons, largest two-day gain since 2011, on Wednesday. During the on-going week, both these precious metals tested their highest levels in 15-weeks, following is the brief technical overview concerning both these metals.


Gold

• Having registered considerable gains in recent days, the yellow metal breached its $1330 resistance level; however, RSI reversal from the overbought zone signals a mild pull back into gold prices towards re-testing $1312-10 support zone, encompassing 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its December 2013 to April 2014 up-move. A dip below $1310 is immediately followed by the 200-day EMA near $1303 level, breaking which the gold prices can test the confluence of 100-day and 50-day EMA region near $1293-90 zone. A sustained trading below $1290 gives rise to expectations that the yellow metal again plunges to its $1275-76 region.

• Alternatively, $1340-45 region, including the 23.6% Fibo level, can become immediate resistance for the gold prices, breaking which $1355 level is likely to cap the upmove of the yellow metal before it test the descending trend line resistance near $1370, which is likely to act as medium-term cap on the gold prices.

Silver

• The white metal prices are testing the descending trend line, connecting the highs of mid-September 2013 to February 2014, near $21.20 – 30 region. The overbought of level of RSI signals prices to witness a pullback towards $20.90-80 region, encompassing the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its June 2013 to August 2013 up-move, given the prices reverse from the current level. On the consequent fall below $20.80, the silver prices can test $20.60-50 support zone, including 200-day EMA. Should the white metal prices sustain a close below $20.50, it can test $20 - $19.80 support zone, including 100-day EMA and 76.4% Fibo. level.

• On the upside, a sustained breakout of the descending trend line resistance can fuel the white metal towards $21.70 region, including 50% Fibo. level, breaking which the silver prices can rally towards $22.20 levels.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – EURCAD, EURCHF and CADCHF

Yesterday’s ECB meeting remained largely unnoticed as the impressive numbers of US labor market gained attention of the forex market players. However, the dovish tone of ECB policy makers together with no monetary policy action dent the Euro region currency against majority of its counterparts. Meanwhile, following is the brief technical overview of EURCAD, EURCHF and CADCHF pairs.

EURCAD

• The pair continued observing the descending trend channel on the daily chart, signaling the on-going down-trend. Yesterday, the pair dipped below 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its July 2013 to March 2014 up-move indicating a test of 1.4360 level, encompassing support line of the channel; however, the oversold level of RSI signals a pullback towards psychological resistance of 1.4500, also including 50% Fibo. level. A break of 1.4500 can fuel the pair towards 1.4575 and 1.4630-35 levels while a sustained trading above 1.4630 can cause the pair to test the crucial resistance zone 1.4700-10, coinciding 200-day EMA and upper line of the channel.

• On the downside, a break of 1.4360 can cause the pair to test 1.4300 and 1.4250 (61.8% Fibo. level), breaking which the pair can become vulnerable to test 1.4100-1.4080 support zone, which can act as a medium term support for the pair.

EURCHF

• EURCHF continued its sluggish movement as indicated by the descending trend line. However, the pair reversed from 1.2138 level yesterday backed by RSI reversal from oversold region. Currently, the pair is heading towards 1.2165–70 resistance zone, encompassing descending trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its January – February downturn. A break of 1.2170 can fuel the pair towards 1.2200 and 1.2215 (38.2% Fibo. level), breaking which 200-day EMA can cap the pair 1.2225 levels.

• On the downside, 1.2135-30 can become immediate support for the pair, breaking which the pair becomes vulnerable to test February low and psychological support level near 1.2100.

CADCHF

• Having breached the 200-day EMA during late June, the pair traded sideways until yesterday when it rallied to the highest level in 22 weeks. The overall sentiment of the pair seems improving as indicated by the ascending trend channel. However, the current overbought level of RSI coupled with the nearness to the important resistance level near 0.8465-70 restricts the chances of a drastic up move by the pair. On the downside, 200-day EMA near 0.8310 becomes immediate support for the pair to test, breaking which the support line of the channel near 0.8250 becomes important for the pair before it tests the 100-day EMA and 23.6% Fibo. level confluence zone near 0.8205 - 0.8200, which also acts as near term support for the pair.

• On the upside, a break of 0.8470 can fuel the pair towards 0.8535-40 resistance zone, breaking which the pair can rally towards 0.8675-80 zone, encompassing the 50% Fibo level. A sustained break above 0.8680 negates the chances of near-term down trend by the pair in addition to fueling the pair towards 0.8800.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major Currency Pairs Technical Update

On Thursday, the US Dollar strengthened against most major currencies on the back of stronger-than-expected June employment reports. In the process, the US Dollar wiped off most of its losses against EUR, JPY, AUD, CHF and NZD, but against GBP continued to remain weak on weekly basis.

Given the backdrop, here is technical update on some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD

EURUSD

The pair reversed from 1.3700 handle and dropped back below 1.3600 mark, giving up most of its gains registered in the previous week. This 1.3600 level now seems to act as important Pivot Point for the upcoming week. Should the pair gives a weekly close below 1.3600 mark it seems more likely to continue weakening in the upcoming week and drift lower to test a very important support near 1.3500-1.3480 zone, confluence of 50% Fib. retracement level and an ascending trend-line support. The ascending trend-line also seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish chart pattern, Rising Wedge, on daily chart. Alternatively, a move above 1.3600 might continue to confront resistance near 1.3640 and 1.3700 levels. Only a move above 1.3700 mark could possibly negate any short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair then could easily climb back to 1.3800-1.3820 resistance area, representing 61.8% Fib. retracement level.

GBPUSD

Although the pair is heading for a fifth week of consecutive gains, it seems to be reversing from the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation (in Red). Also, daily and weekly RSI (both above 70) are suggesting near-term overbought conditions and hence, the current ongoing profit taking move is expected to continue and the pair could possibly drop to 1.7060-50 horizontal support area. However, a weekly close above 1.7160 level would indicate continuation of the pair's recent strong move and the pair could easily surpass 1.7200 round figure mark and continue appreciating towards 1.7400 area, representing another trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending trend-channel formation (in Green).

USDJPY

Although, the pair rebounded from 101.20 intermediate support, it continues to face strong resistance near 200-day SMA, currently near 102.20. Formation of a descending triangle on daily charts suggest that any up-move beyond 102.20 resistance is likely to be capped near a very important resistance near 102.70-80 zone, representing the descending trend-line of the descending triangular formation. The pair seems more likely to start drifting lower and test the horizontal line support of the descending triangle formation, near 100.80 level. Furthermore, a break below this horizontal line support is likely to confirm continuation of the near-term downtrend towards testing sub-100.00 psychological level.

AUDUSD

The pair failed to capitalize on its move above April 2014 high and reversed from an intermediate resistance near 0.9510-30 zone. The pair dropped back to re-test a very important support near 0.9330 region. A drop below this strong support area would make the pair vulnerable to further corrective move in the upcoming week towards 0.9210-0.9200 support area, 50% Fib. retracement level. However, should the pair manage to hold this strong support and witness a rebound, it could possibly extend the rebound even beyond 0.9500 mark touched on Wednesday and continue the short-term up-ward trajectory till 0.9600 level.

NZDUSD

The pair is reversing from its weekly resistance level near 0.8800 level marked by the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending channel formation on weekly chart. This corrective move is likely to continue during the upcoming week initially towards 0.8640 support area. Even a decisive move above 0.8800 resistance is likely to be capped at 0.8840 resistance level, comprising of 61.8% Fib. expansion level and highs touched in July 2011. Only a break above this strong resistance would warrant further near-term up-move for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF

Last week, US Dollar witnessed first positive closing in previous three weeks as the optimistic fundamental numbers, mainly driven by labor market indicators, fueled the US Dollar strength. Flourished by such support, the gauge measuring greenback against a basket of six currencies, I.USDX, also gained for the first time in three weeks. Current week started with a negative closing by the greenback due to lack of important readings. However, market players are likely to put more importance on minutes of recent FOMC meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, in order to determine near term strength of the US Dollar.


AUDUSD

• Positive US job market numbers pulled back the pair from 0.9500 level and consequently forced it to test the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn, also coinciding ascending trend line support connecting the lows of March and May 2014. Currently, the crossover of 100-day EMA to 200-day EMA coupled with the strong support of ascending trend line signals the uptrend to continue towards multiple immediate resistances near 0.9410, 0.9425 and 0.9450. A break of 0.9450 can cause the pair to re-test 0.9500 - 0.9505 resistance zone, coinciding 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A sustained trading above 0.9505 can fuel the pair towards 0.9550 and 0.9630 levels.

• On the downside, ascending trend line support 0.9345 is followed by the 0.9330 support level, coinciding 61.8% Fibo. Level, breaking which 200 and 100-day EMA confluence near 0.9270-0.9260 can become possible rest for the pair before it plunges to 0.9200 levels as signaled by the 50% Fibo. level.

USDCAD

• Last week, USDCAD fell to the long standing ascending trend line stretched from September 2012; however, the strength of USD coupled with the oversold levels of MACD caused reversal and the pair seems bouncing back towards 1.0730, encompassing 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move, connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs. A sustained trading above 1.0730 can be immediately followed by the 1.0795 – 1.0800 range, including 200-day EMA, which is likely to cap the near-term up move of the pair.

• Alternatively, the ascending trend line is likely to provide strong support to the pair near 1.0640 – 1.0635 region, breaking which December 2013 low near 1.0560 becomes immediate support for the pair before it plunges to horizontal line support level of 1.0470.

USDCHF

• Even after gaining heavily during the last weekend, USDCHF couldn’t close above its 200-day EMA which is currently providing the cap to the prices near 0.8950, breaking which the upper line of descending trend channel near 0.8965 becomes immediate resistance for the pair. Should the pair successfully breaks 0.8965 level and closes above 0.9020, it is vulnerable to rally towards paving a highest level in a year near 0.9150.

• On the downside, 100 and 50-day EMA confluence near 0.8910 – 0.8915 can become immediate support for the pair, breaking which 0.8860 – 0.8850 becomes important support for the pair before it tests 0.8800 and 0.8755 levels.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - Important Major and Cross Currency Pairs

On Monday, the US Dollar slipped against EUR and JPY but managed to rise against GBP. Investors now await to see whether the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting help US Dollar resume its last week's trend? Meanwhile, here is a technical update on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and their respective cross currency pairs - EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPJPY.

EURUSD

Following its drop on Thursday after the release of strong NFP data, the pair now is moving in a tight trading range between 1.3580 on the downside and 1.3610 on the upside. Considering the strong US labor market performance, market participants could possibly start building a case of an earlier than expected interest rate hike by the Fed. This increases the possibilities of the pair breaking below the lower end of the trading range. A break below 1.3580 seems to immediately drag the pair towards its next horizontal support near 1.3530 area and further towards a very important support near 1.3480-90 zone. However, a decisive break above 1.3610-30 zone, the higher end of the trading range, could possibly negate this bearish outlook and the pair could immediately rally back towards 1.3700 round figure mark.

GBPUSD

The pair reversed from the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending channel formation on daily chart and on Tuesday dropped below 1.7100 mark, breaking below a short-term ascending trend-line support. The pair now seems to continue drifting lower to test an immediate support near 1.7060-50 area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Further, a decisive break below this immediate support is likely to infuse some additional weakness for the pair towards testing sub-1.7000 level (1.6980-70 zone). On the upside major resistance is pegged near 1.7150 region, which if conquered could easily lift the pair beyond 1.7200 handle, towards 1.7220-30 resistance marked by the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel.

USDJPY

The pair rebounded from an intermediate support near 101.20 region to retest an important support break point, now turned immediate strong resistance, near 200-day SMA. Although, the pair seems to have confirmed near-term downtrend, but a confirmation of the same would be triggered only once the pair drops below an ascending trend-line support near 101.30-20 area. This is because the ascending trend-line, along-with the 200-day SMA resistance, seems to constitute towards a symmetrical triangular formation on daily chart. A decisive break below 101.30 could possibly confirm continuation of the near-term downtrend and the pair might immediate drop towards a very important horizontal support near 100.80 area. Furthermore, a break below this horizontal line support is likely to confirm continuation of the near-term downtrend towards testing sub-100.00 psychological level. Meanwhile on the upside, 200-day SMA might continue to cap any near-term up-move for the pair and only a decisive move above 102.00-102.20 resistance area might negate the bearish outlook for the pair.

EURGBP

The pair rebounded from a very important support near 0.7930-20 area, marking a confluence of lower trend-lines of descending trend-channel formations on 1-hourly chart and daily charts. The pair is now reversing from the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel and hence a break below 0.7930-20 support now seems to immediately drag the pair towards sub-0.7900. However, a move above 0.7960 resistance, the upper trend-line resistance has the potential to lift the pair, even beyond 0.8000 psychological mark, towards 0.8030-40 important resistance. A decisive move and close above 0.8000 now could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair.

EURJPY

As is visible on 1-hourly chart, the pair has decisively dropped below a descending channel formation and now seems to continue drifting lower to test a very important support near 138.00-137.90 area, representing a medium-term ascending trend-line support. A decisive break below 138.00 level would confirm continuation of the near-term bearish trend for the pair and the pair seems to continue weakening towards 136.40-20 horizontal support. Any pull-back from current levels could possibly face immediate resistance near 138.40-50 zone, breaking which the pair could possibly extend the bounce till 139.20-30 strong resistance zone, marking 200-day SMA.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important AUD Crosses

Ever since the Chinese Manufacturing indices started showing signs of revival into the industrial activity of Australia’s largest consumer, market players put more weight on the AUD pairs. Moreover, continued improvement into the Australian economics provided additional concern for the traders to support the AUD buying. During the current week, market players are eyeing on the monthly labor market details, scheduled for Thursday releases, to determine the strength of Australian job market which has previously witnessed a surprise decline. Meanwhile following is the brief technical overview of EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD.

EURAUD

Following a rally caused by mixed signals from Building Approvals and Retail Sales, on last Thursday, the pair continued testing the grounds, as signaled by the descending trend line. However, slowly rising ascending trend channel suggests limited downside. From the current level, descending trend line resistance, also a psychological level, near 1.4500 becomes immediate cap restricting the up move of the pair, breaking which 1.4540, 1.4554 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its late-May to mid-June downfall) and 1.4580 can become consequent resistances before the pair rallies above 1.4650 level. On the downside, 1.4440 and 1.4415 (support line of trend channel) are likely supports for the pair before it tests June low near 1.4350; however psychological support of 1.4400 can become intermediate support for the pair.

GBPAUD

Ever since the pair tested 15-week high during early July, after breaking 100-day SMA and the descending trend line resistance, it continued falling towards the re-test of the same SMA near 1.8145, which is closely followed by 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 up-move near 1.8120. On the successful trading below 1.8120, the pair becomes vulnerable to test resistance turned support of descending trend line and the 200-day SMA near 1.8045 - 1.8030 support zone, which is likely to limit near term downside by the pair. On the upside, 1.8240-45 can become immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which the pair can rally towards re-test of July high near 1.8370 region. On the successful breakout of 1.8370, the pair can rally towards 23.6% Fibo. level near 1.8470-75 level.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY has been trading into the 95.70 – 95.30 range, since the early July, as marked by the rectangle formation on H4 chart. After breaking 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its May – July 2014 up-move, near 95.70, the pair can rally towards 95.85 – 90 region, breaking which it is expected to test 96.00 – 96.10 region, which can cap the near-term up-move by the pair. On the successful trading above 96.10 the pair is expected to rally towards 96.50 region. On the downside, a break below 95.30 is closely followed by the 95.15 support level, also encompassing 38.2% Fibo, level. On the consequent trading below 95.15, the pair is expected to trade 94.80 – 75 region, including 50% Fibo. level.

AUDNZD

AUDNZD is heading towards a re-test of ascending trend line, connecting the lows of January and March 2014, near 1.0635 level, which is closely followed by the psychological support level of 1.0600. A sustained trading below 1.0600 can cause the pair to test the yearly low near 1.0540. On the upside, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn, near 1.0745 becomes immediate resistance for the pair. Sustained trading above 1.0745 can be followed by 1.0825 resistance levels, breaking which the 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level near 1.0900, also a psychological level, can cap the near-term up-move by the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Gold and Silver - Technical Overview

Of late both Gold and Silver have failed to build on their recent gains and have been moving in a narrow trading range. However, minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting, scheduled for release later on Wednesday, could possibly help in determining the near-term direction for the precious metals. Given the backdrop, here is a technical outlook for Gold and Silver.

Gold

As could be seen on 4-hourly chart, the yellow metal seems to be forming a Diamond chart pattern, which either signals a bearish reversal or continuation of the on-going trend. Hence, should the metal manage to break-past the descending trend-line resistance near 1325 area, suggestion continuation of appreciating trend, it seems more likely to immediately appreciate to 1340-45 resistance area, marking the projection of ascending trend-line resistance. Alternatively, should it fail to conquer this immediate resistance and drop back below 1314-1310 ascending trend-line support, signaling a bearish reversal, it could accelerate the drop towards 1300 round figure mark. Considering the release of FOMC minutes later during the day, volatility is expected to spike-up and the metal is more likely to break on either side.

Silver

Silver on the other hand seems to be forming a Flag chart pattern on 4-hourly chart, usually considered to be continuation pattern marking consolidation before resumption of the previous move. Although, bullish flags often slant against the trend, which doesn't seem in case of the white metal; however, if considered in isolation, the metal seems to be trading within an ascending channel formation, also suggesting continuation of the short-term bullish momentum. Thus, from current levels the metal is expected to continue rising till 21.40 resistance, marking the upper trend-line of the channel. Alternatively, a drop back below the lower trend-line support near 20.90 region would possibly negate the bullish outlook and the metal could easily drop back initially towards 20.50 level and further even below 20.00 round figure mark.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - US Equity Indices

On Wednesday, the US equity indices closed higher after the FOMC minutes of its June meeting revealed that it is likely to end its monthly bond purchase program by October subject to economy conditions remain on track. On Thursday, however, the indices futures are down sharply on the back of sharp losses witnessed in European equity markets. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on major US indices - Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.


Dow Jones [DJI30]

Following a test of 17,000 mark, the index started correcting and is trading very close to its immediate strong support near 16,850-40 area comprising of the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending channel formation and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. A drop below this immediate support would suggest the upcoming short-term interruption of the ongoing bull-run and the index might continue drifting lower to test 16,630-16,600 support zone. On the upside 16,900-920 become immediate resistance, breaking which the index could resume its upward trajectory and move back even beyond 17,000 psychological mark towards 17,350-400 resistance representing the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel.

S&P 500 [SP500]

The index is trading very close to its immediate horizontal support, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level, near 1950-40 region, breaking which the index could easily drift lower to test 1900 round figure mark in the near-term, also marking 50% retracement level. 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 1920 could possibly provide some intermediate support on the downside. Meanwhile on the upside, 1965-75 zone now seems to act as immediate strong resistance, breaking which the momentum is expected to continue till 2000 psychological mark.

Nasdaq 100 [NQ100]

The index is headed towards a short-term ascending trend-line support near 3840 mark, breaking which it could immediately drop back toward the break-out point near 3800 mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Moreover, a decisive break below 3800 mark has the potential to further drag the indices 3740-30 support area, marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level. On the upside, 3890-3900 zone now seems to provide immediate strong resistance and a decisive move above this strong resistance would possibly negate any short-term bearish outlook and the index could easily extend the bullish momentum till 4000 psychological round figure mark.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURGBP, EURAUD and EURCAD

On Thursday, Euro-zone currency (EUR) gave up its early gains and registered losses against GBP, CAD while it remained little changed against AUD on the back of news of banking turmoil in Portugal. Given the backdrop, here is a technical outlook for some important EUR cross currency pairs. EURGBP, EURAUD and EURCAD.

EURGBP

Although, the pair continues to hold 0.7930-20 support area but has still failed to move above 0.7960 immediate resistance area, forming a short-term ascending channel on 1-hourly chart. Consequent move above 0.7960 resistance has the potential to lift the pair, even beyond 0.8000 psychological mark, towards 0.8030-40 important resistance. Further, a decisive move and close above 0.8000 might also negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair. Alternatively, a break below 0.7930-20 support area could immediately drag the pair below 0.7900 round figure mark, towards 0.7860-50 horizontal support.

EURAUD

Even after the volatile session witnessed yesterday, the pair continues to trade within an ascending channel formation on 4-hourly chart. On the downside, the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel support near 1.4420-1.4400 seems to continue providing immediate strong support. However, a break below this support could infuse additional weakness, even below 1.4350 - lows touched in June 2014, towards 1.4300 horizontal support. Meanwhile, a move back above 1.4490-1.4500 immediate horizontal resistance has the potential to further lift the pair towards upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel near 1.4590-1.4600 zone.

EURCAD

This week any recovery back towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level got sold into and the pair is now seems to be moving back towards 2014 closing lows of 1.4440 mark and further towards 2014 intraday lows of 1.4400, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of a descending channel formation on daily chart. On the upside, immediate resistance is pegged near 1.4490-1.4500 zone, which is closely followed by a strong resistance at 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 1.4530-50 zone. A move above this strong resistance might trigger some short-term up-move towards 1.4660-80 horizontal resistance zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”