Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - AUDUSD, NZDUSD and AUDNZD

On Wednesday, the US Dollar rallied against AUD and NZD on the back of stronger-than-expected US GDP data. The US Dollar rally, however, was capped after the statement from the Federal Reserve didn't hint towards earlier than expected tightening of the monetary policy. Investors now await for the release of US employment data on Friday to get further cues on improving US labor market conditions. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for AUDUSD, NZDUSD and their cross currency pair AUDNZD.

AUDUSD

On Thursday, the pair added to its losses on Wednesday lead by weaker Australian economic data. In doing so the pair weakened below 0.9320-0.9300 immediate support, comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level support. From current levels the pair seems more likely to continue depreciating towards 0.9250 intermediate horizontal support. Moreover, an upbeat NFP data could further push the pair towards a very important support near 0.9200-0.9180 zone, constituting 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA. Meanwhile, on the upside 0.9320-40 zone, previous support, now seems to provide immediate resistance for the pair and only a move above this immediate resistance could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair.

NZDUSD

Following a drop below 100-day SMA, the pair is now trading within a well established short-term down-trend by forming a descending trend-channel on 1-hourly chart and is currently trading close to the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel near 0.8500 region. Should the pair manage to decisively break through this immediate resistance it is likely to immediate spike towards 0.8530-35 resistance zone, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Feb. 2014 lows to July 2014 highs up-swing. Alternatively, a reversal from this immediate resistance and a drop back below 0.8480 minor support, is likely to accelerate the downfall towards the lower trend-line support of the descending channel near 0.8440 support area, also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level.

AUDNZD

After marginal gains above June 2014 high the pair started reversing, possibly forming a bearish chart pattern, Double-Top, near 1.1030-40 area on daily chart. The pattern, however, is not confirmed till the pair decisively breaks below an immediate important support near 1.0900 area. A decisive break below 1.0900 support, would confirm the bearish chart pattern and the pair could immediate drop to 1.0800 horizontal support area, nearly coinciding with the downside target of the bearish chart pattern formation on daily chart. Alternatively, should the pair manage to hold the immediate strong support and witness a bounce back it is likely to confront resistance near 1.0980 level, which is closely followed by a very strong resistance near 2014 highs, 1.1020-40 zone. Moreover, strength above 2014 highs could further boost the pair towards 1.1125-30 horizontal resistance zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important Euro Pairs

On Thursday, the Euro continued with this week’s recovery against GBP, AUD and JPY. The Euro-zone currency, however, weakened further against the US Dollar as investors waiting for the release of US jobs data later during the day, that would provide further evidence of improving US labor market conditions and economic recovery.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on some important cross currency pairs - EURGBP, EURAUD, EURJPY.

EURGBP

The pair on Friday decisively conquered the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term descending channel formation on daily charts and now seems to continue the momentum towards 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.7990-0.8000 zone, also coinciding with 50-day SMA. On the downside, break-out point near 0.7940 area now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Failure to hold this immediate support and subsequent drop below 0.7920 horizontal support might confirm continuation of the weakening trend, even below lows tested in July, towards the lower trend-line support of the descending channel near 0.7850-40 area.

EURJPY

Following its drop to nearly retest 2014 lows near, the pair rebounded from 136.30 level and is now headed for its first weekly gain in last four weeks. Although the pair seems to continue with the recovery, it is likely to confront a strong resistance near 138.30-50 zone, comprising of 50-day SMA, a descending trend-line resistance extending from May 2014 through June and July 2014 highs, and 50% Fib. retracement level. Only a move above this strong resistance could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair might extend the recovery towards 100-day SMA resistance, currently near 139.70-140.00 region. Alternatively, a drop back below 137.50 immediate horizontal support area, might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory and drift below 2014 lows to test 135.00 support area.

EURAUD

Continuing with its last week’s recovery, the pair on Friday reclaimed and is now decisively trading above 1.4400 mark. From current levels the pair seems to continue appreciating towards its immediate resistance at 50-day SMA near 1.4480-1.4500 zone, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Further, a move above this resistance area, could easily lift the pair back towards 1.4600 round figure mark, support turned resistance area, also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level. On the downside, 1.4400-1.4380 previous resistance area, now seems provide immediate strong support for the pair and only a drop back below this immediate support could possibly negate the expectations of continuing near-term recovery for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major Currency Pairs - Technical Update

On Monday, the US Dollar traded in a narrow range against most major currencies. The US Dollar gained marginally against EUR, JPY and CHF while was weaker against GBP, AUD and NZD. With very little in terms of economic releases from the US, investors will focus on some important market moving events from other developed economies scheduled for release during the week. Meanwhile, here is a technical update on major currency pairs – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

EURUSD

On Tuesday, the pair resumed its recent depreciating move and dropped back below 1.3400 mark. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.3360-50 area, marked by a descending trend-line support on daily chart and also coinciding with lows touched in the week gone-by. Further, a drop below this immediate support is likely to trigger additional downward momentum towards testing a very important psychological support near 1.3300 mark. Meanwhile, a pull-back from the trend-line support is likely to face immediate resistance near 1.3420-30 area, which if conquered is likely to lift the pair back towards 1.3500 mark (1.3480-1.3500 zone). Although the medium-term trend outlook is likely to remain bearish; however, considering the short-term oversold conditions (RSI reading below 30), a pull-back towards 1.3480-1.3500 zone, important support break point now turned important resistance, cannot be ruled out.

GBPUSD

Following the release of better-than-expected services PMI on Tuesday, the pair continued with its rebound from 1.6810-1.6800 psychological round figure mark support. From current levels, should the pair manage to climb above 1.6900 mark, it is likely to extend the pull-back towards 1.6950 level, an ascending trend-line support break point now turned immediate strong resistance area. On the downside, day's low near 1.6840 region seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Failure to hold day's low now seems to drag the pair even below 1.6800 round figure mark support towards 1.6760-50 horizontal support zone and further towards 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.6650 area.

USDJPY

After rising to its highest level since early May 2014, the pair seems to consolidate and is holding above 200-day SMA. This 200-day SMA, currently near 102.35 level now seems to provide immediate support for the pair. Should the pair continue holding above 200-day SMA, it seems more likely to rise back towards 102.80-103.00 strong resistance area, also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Further, a decisive move above this immediate strong resistance seems to provide additional boost towards another strong resistance near 103.90-104.00 zone, representing April 2014 highs. Alternatively, a drop back below 200-day SMA support now seems to immediately drag the pair back below 102.00 mark, towards 101.70-60 support area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

USDCHF

The pair continues to trade in a well established short-term up-trend and after retesting 61.8% Fib. expansion level resumed its upward trajectory and is now headed back towards 0.9100 mark, highs formed in the previous week. A move above 0.9100 has the potential to immediately lift the pair towards an intermediate resistance area formed by Jan. 2014 highs, near 0.9150 region. On the downside, 0.9050 now seems to act as immediate strong support and only a decisive weakness below this immediate support might possibly negate the short-term bullish outlook for the pair.

AUDUSD

On Monday, the pair added to its gains registered on Friday, following the release of lower-than-expected NFP data. The pair, however, has failed to decisively conquer 100-day SMA strong resistance near 0.9320-40 area. Hence, should the pair drop back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 0.9310-0.9300 area, it would negate the possibilities of any further up-move for the pair. The pair, then, could easily drop to 0.9250 intermediate horizontal support and further towards a very important support near 0.9200-0.9180 zone, comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, on the upside 0.9350 region might continue acting as immediate strong resistance for the pair and only a decisive move and close above this resistance area could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair. A break above this strong resistance now, seems to provide some additional thrust to the pair and the pair could easily rise back towards a very important resistance near 0.9420-40 zone.

NZDUSD

Last week on Friday, the pair managed to rebound from 200-day SMA support near 0.8450 zone and is now reversing from an immediate resistance near 0.8530-35 zone, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Feb. 2014 lows to July 2014 highs up-swing. Reversal from an immediate resistance and subsequent drop below 0.8480 immediate minor support is likely accelerate the downward momentum back towards 0.8450 support area. Further, a break below 200-day SMA support region is likely to exert additional pressure towards testing another strong support near 0.8370-50 zone, nearing 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, a move above 0.8530-35 intermediate resistance zone seems to trigger a sharp up-move immediately towards 0.8580 level.






“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: EURAUD, EURGBP, EURJPY and EURNZD

Weaker CPI numbers, published last week, continued hurting the Euro strength. However, market players are eagerly waiting for the ECB monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday, in order to get hints of future monetary policy actions by the central bank President. Meanwhile, the following is the brief technical overview of important Euro pairs that are likely to offer volatility.

EURAUD

EURAUD continues to observe descending trend line by signaling a test of 1.4310 and multiple support zone of 1.4210 – 1.4200, breaking which the 1.4120 level can become intermediate rest for the pair before it plunges to November 2013 lows of 1.4050. However, the oversold levels of MACD signals the pullback to a re-test of ascending trend line near 1.4410, which is closely followed by 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its November 2013 to January 2014 up-move, also coinciding 50-day SMA, near 1.4465 – 1.4470 region. Should the pair closes above 1.4470 level, it can rally towards critical horizontal resistance level of 1.4600 which caps the medium-term up-move of the pair.

EURGBP

Even if the pair surpassed descending trend line resistance on last Friday, it failed to sustain the breakout by signaling the re-test of 0.7900 levels, breaking which the 2014 low of 0.7875 can become important support for the pair before it extends the downtrend towards 0.7800 levels. On the upside, 0.7960 and the 0.7990 – 0.7995 zone, coinciding the 50-day EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its March highs to July lows, becomes immediate resistances for the pair. Should the pair closes above 0.7995, the 0.8035 level can become intermediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 0.8075 – 0.8080, including 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

EURJPY

EURJPY kept following descending trend channel formation and signals the re-test of 137.20 level, breaking which 136.95, coinciding 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its August 2013 to December 2013 up-move, can become immediate support for the pair. A close below 136.95 can call the pair to test 135.90 level before it plunges to the horizontal line support level of 135.50 which becomes medium-term support for the pair. On the upside, the 200-day EMA and the upper line of the trend channel caps the near-term up-move of the pair at 138.10 – 138.15 region, breaking which the pair can extend its up-move towards 139 levels.

EURNZD

EURNZD reversed from descending trend line, stretched from December 2013, after breaking the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its December 2013 to July 2014 downturn. The pair is currently supported by the 50-day EMA near psychological level of 1.5700, breaking which another psychological support level near 1.5600 can limit the near-term down-turn of the pair before it plunges to its July low of near 1.5400. Should the pair reverses from the current level, 23.6% Fibo. level near 1.5780, immediately followed by the descending trend line resistance near 1.5815 and the 100-day EMA near 1.5850 can become immediate resistances for the pair. Should the pair closes above 1.5850, it can rally towards 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and 200-day EMA near 1.6010 – 1.6020 region; however, 1.5900 can become intermediate resistance for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: USDCAD, EURCAD, EURCHF and CADCHF

After witnessing considerable volatility during last week, mainly caused by US economic releases, the current week has lesser US numbers to publish; however, that doesn’t lead to empty economic calendar for the week as rest of the globe has many important releases scheduled. The US Dollar maintained its strength during the current week against majority of its counterparts while the Euro region currency remained suppressed ahead of the important ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday. Meanwhile, the following is the brief technical overview of USDCAD, EURCAD, EURCHF and CADCHF pairs.

USDCAD

Ever since the USDCAD broke above its 1.0830 resistance level, coinciding 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its December 2013 lows to March 2014 high, it continued rallying as indicated by the steep rise in ascending trend line. The pair currently trades near 1.0980 resistance level, breaking which 38.2% Fibo. level near psychological level of 1.1000 is likely to become next resistance for the pair. If the pair closes above 1.1000 level, the 1.1050 can become intermediate halt for the pair before it extends the uptrend towards 1.1080 and 1.1100, coinciding 23.6% Fibo level. On the downside, 50% Fibo. level and the ascending trend line provides immediate support to the pair near 1.0915, breaking which 1.0870, 1.0850 (200-day SMA) and 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo. level) can become consecutive supports for the pair. A break below 1.0830 can cause the pair to test 1.0770 and can also negate the chances of near-term up-move.

EURCAD

EURCAD gained considerable strength after breaking the descending trend channel resistance; however, the 200-day EMA near 1.4675 has been capping the up-move of the pair since Friday. Should the pair breaks the current resistance, which is more likely if we observe the smaller timeframes, it can test 1.4755 – 1.4760 resistance zone, coinciding 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its July 2013 to March 2014 up-move. On the successful break of 1.4760, the 1.4900 can become important resistance for the pair before it rallies to 23.6% Fibo. level near 1.5070 level. On the downside, 1.4550 and 50% Fibo. level support near 1.4500 can become intermediate rest for the pair before it plunges to its medium-term important support zone of 1.4420 – 1.4410.

EURCHF

Having failed to sustain a breakout of 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its January – March 2014 downturn, EURCHF is again showing the signs of re-testing the trend line support near 1.2145, breaking which the July low near 1.2135 and 1.2120 can become immediate support for the pair before it test the psychological support and yearly low of 1.2100. Alternatively, 23.6% Fibo. level can provide immediate resistance to the pair near 1.2170, breaking which 1.2176 and 1.2190 can become consequent resistances for the pair before it tests the 1.2210 – 1.2215 resistance zone, coinciding 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibo. level.

CADCHF

Even after closing below the ascending trend line support, on yesterday, the pair isn’t showing strong signs of downtrend as it continued to maintain the low of 0.8280, which is closely followed by 100-day EMA support near 0.8255 and the 0.8215 level, coinciding 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its May 2013 to March 2014 downturn. A sustained break of 0.8215 can call the pair to test 0.8150 level. On the upside, a jump above 0.8320, including ascending trend line and the 200-day EMA, can cause the pair to test 0.8360 and 0.8410 levels before its rallies to 38.2% Fibo. level near 0.8465.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: GBPJPY and GBPCAD

Ever since the UK labor market numbers have weakened in the month of July, GBP have started liquidating its strength. The pound has liquidated heavy gains against its Japanese counterparts while it is still strong against Canadian Dollar.

GBPJPY

The pair has continued trading down since the early July, as signaled by the descending trend line, and broke below 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of its February to July 2014 up-move on Wednesday. The pair is currently resting near its 100-day EMA. From the current level, ascending trend line support near 171.20 and the 38.2% Fibo. level near 171 can become immediate supports for the pair to test, breaking which the 50% Fibo. level and multiple supports near 169.60 – 50 region can limit the medium term downtrend of the pair. Should the pair reverses from the current level, 23.6% Fibo. level 172.70 is an immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which 173.30 and the 173.85 (descending trend line resistance) can become next levels for the pair to test. Should it trades above 173.85 and surpasses the psychological resistance level of 174, it can quickly rally towards the yearly high of 175.30-50 region.

GBPCAD

Even after surpassing the descending trend line resistance of 1.8450 and closing above it, on Wednesday, the GBPCAD plunged below the resistance line today by negating the strength of the pair. From the current level 1.8360 and 1.8300 can become immediate supports for the pair before it plunges to the important support level of 1.8270, coinciding the 100-day EMA and ascending trend line. Should the pair successfully trade below 1.8270, chance of the June low re-test, near 1.8150, can become brighter. On the upside, a successful trading above 1.8500 can only give support to the bulls towards 1.8580 and 1.8650. On the successful trading above 1.8650, the pair becomes vulnerable to surpass 1.8800 levels.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Equity Indices - Technical Outlook

On Wednesday, all the three major US equity indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) recovered from day's low amid cautious trade on concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Nevertheless, both Dow Jones and S&P 500 managed to register marginal gains while Nasdaq 100 still closed the day with marginal losses.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on major US indices - Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Dow Jone [DJI30]

The index recovered from day's low, holding 200-day SMA important support on closing basis and closing near 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Also the index future on Thursday is pointing towards a higher opening. The level tested on Wednesday, 16350-30 zone, coincides with lows tested earlier this year in April and May and also with a very important 200-day SMA support. This 16350-30 zone on the downside now seems to act as immediate strong support for the index. Hence, a decisive break and close below this important support seems to confirm continuation of the descending trend for the index. The index then could be vulnerable to test 16000 round figure mark, coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level and also coinciding with lower levels touched in the month of Feb., March and April this year. Meanwhile, on the upside, 16580-16600 zone now has emerged as immediate resistance for the index and only a decisive move above this immediate resistance is likely to trigger further up-move for the index back towards the very important 17000 psychological mark resistance. Considering the short-term oversold conditions, the index seems more likely to witness a pull-back towards immediate resistance area or consolidation at current level.

S&P 500 [SP500]

Following its steep decline from 1991 level, the index on Wednesday managed to rebound from 100-day SMA support region. Moreover, future on Thursday is also suggesting a slightly higher opening. The index, however, seems more likely to confront an immediate strong resistance near 1940 area. Only a decisive move above this immediate strong resistance is likely to negate further downward momentum for the index and the index might continue rising towards a very important psychological level of 2000. However, a decisive move back below 1001-day SMA support, currently near 1915 level, and a subsequent drop below 1900 round figure mark representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level, might infuse additional near-term weakness for the index. The index then could be vulnerable to continue descending lower towards 1860-50 support area, marked by 50% Fib. retracement level.

Nasdaq 100 [NQ100]

Although the index held 50-day SMA support near 3850 level, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level, but failed to register any meaningful recovery from lower levels. From current levels the index could possibly rise to 3900 immediate horizontal resistance area. This is closely followed by a very strong resistance near 3925 region, which now seems to cap any short-term up-move for the index. Further, failure to conquer 3900 and a drop back 3850 immediate support area, now seems to exert additional near-term pressure on the index. A drop below this immediate support could immediate drag the index towards 3800 round figure mark and further towards 1.3780 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Furthermore, a decisive break below 3800 support area seems to confirm the downward trajectory of the index towards 3700 support area, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and 100-day SMA.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Gold and Silver

Yesterday, Russia announced its retaliation over the US and European sanctions by avoiding all imports of food from the United States and all fruit and vegetables from Europe. Moreover, the tensions hovering around middle-east are likely to continue as the three day cease-fire at Gaza strip is about to end with little chances of extending the same. The news fueled safe haven demand of the precious metals which rallied heavily during the day. However, both these metals couldn’t sustain the gain today and are again showing signs of weakness.

Gold

On Wednesday, the gold prices rallied by breaking the descending trend channel resistance line; however, the yellow metal couldn’t register a close above the resistance level of $1307 and consequently fell today towards $1301 low. From the current level, the horizontal line support of $1297 can become an immediate rest for the gold prices, breaking which $1289 and $1280 can become important support levels to observe. Should the metal closes below $1280, the move can open room for a further decline towards lows tested in June 2014, $1250-40 region. On the upside, a close above descending trend channel resistance line, now at $1305, can immediately support the expectations of the gold prices testing $1310 - $1315 resistance zone. Should the metal surpasses the $1315 resistance level on a closing basis, $1330 is likely to become immediate resistance for it.

Silver

Silver prices reversed from the descending trend channel support line on Wednesday; however, the metal is currently trading near the middle line of the channel by being at $20. Should it fail to generate enough strength and falls back, $19.85 and the $19.65, coinciding support line of the channel, can become immediate rests for it. Moreover, the break below $19.65 can extend the white metal’s downtrend towards horizontal support line resting near $19.25. On the upside, a successful trading above $20.10 can fuel the silver prices towards the resistance line of the trend channel near $20.35. If the prices sustain a break above $20.35, higher are the chances that the metal surpasses $21.10 resistance level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Euro Cross Currency Pairs

On Thursday, the Euro area shared currency - EUR, fell against JPY but managed to register strong gains against AUD lead by weaker Australian employment data. EUR, however, was flat against GBP. Also on Thursday, the European central Bank ECB left its monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Mario Draghi pointed that the Euro-zone lower interest rate regime might continue for much longer time.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important EUR cross currency pairs - EURGBP, EURJPY and EURAUD.

EURGBP

The pair recovered most of its loss registered in the early part of the week and is now headed back towards its immediate resistance marked by 50-day SMA near 0.7980 level. As is visible on daily chart, the pair is showing strength following a break above a short-term descending trend-channel. Hence, a decisive strength and close above the immediate resistance seems to provide some additional upward momentum for the pair during the upcoming week. The pair then might continue climbing towards its next major resistance near 0.8080 area, comprising of 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 100-day SMA. Meanwhile, the channel break-out point near 0.7930 level now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. However, weakness back below 0.7930 and subsequent drop below 0.7900 round figure mark could possibly trigger resumption of descending trend for the pair and the pair could easily drop below its recent lows of sub-0.7800 level and continue drifting lower towards 0.7830-20 support area.

EURJPY

The pair on Friday dropped to fresh 2014 lows but has managed to find support near 135.80-60 zone, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level and the lower trend-line support of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. From current levels the pair seems more likely to continue the recovery till 136.60 immediate resistance level, which if conquered seems to further lift the pair in the near-term towards a very strong resistance near 137.80 area, comprising of 50-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel. Alternatively, should the pair reverse from 136.60 intermediate resistance and drop back below 136.00 round figure mark, it seems more likely to break below-down from the descending channel formation and continue with its depreciating move towards 135.30-20 horizontal support area.

EURAUD

The pair on Friday moved above 50-day SMA, but is confronting minor resistance near 1.4480 area. This minor resistance is unlikely to restrict further upside for the pair and the pair seems more likely to surpass 1.4500 round figure mark, also coinciding with 38.2% retracement level, and continue its upward trajectory towards 1.4550-60 horizontal resistance. Meanwhile on the downside, 1.4400 now seems to act as immediate strong support for the pair. Failure to hold this immediate support could possibly negate the expectations of the short-term upward momentum. A drop back below 1.4400 mark might again drag the pair back towards sub-1.4300 area, towards 1.4280 marking the lowest weekly close since Nov. 2013.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: USDCAD, EURCAD and EURCHF

Even as the Swiss retail sales jumped to a seven month high, the CHF couldn’t strengthen against majority of its counterparts while the CAD also remained fragile by ignoring the Canadian housing starts which rose to level not witnessed since July 2013. With no major releases from Canada and Switzerland left to publish today, market players are likely to await Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations and PPI, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively, together with the Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m, scheduled for Friday release, in order to determine near-term movement of CHF and CAD respectively.

Having discussed the fundamentals, following is the brief technical overview of USDCAD, EURCAD and EURCHF.

USDCAD

USDCAD have been observing the ascending trend line since the start of the month, signaling the up-move; however, the rally has been tamed twice during the month near 1.0980-1.0985 resistance zone. The pair once again heading towards the same resistance zone after reversing from the ascending trend line support, near 1.0915 at present, on yesterday. On the break of 1.0985 resistance zone, the daily chart signals immediate resistance near the psychological level of 1.1000, coinciding 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its December 2013 to march 2014 up-move. On the sustained trading above 1.1000, the pair becomes vulnerable to rally towards 1.1110 resistance levels, 23.6% Fibo. level; however, 1.1050 can become intermediate resistance for the pair. Should the pair breaks the ascending trend line support, near 1.0915 at present, it can test 1.0870 support level which closely followed by the horizontal support line of 1.0845 and 1.0815. Sustained trading below 1.0815 negates the chances of near-term up-move by the pair by making it vulnerable to test sub-1.0750 levels.

EURCAD

Today, EURCAD broke below its ascending trend channel support, ranging from late-July, by signaling a test of horizontal support line near 1.4555-1.4550 support zone, breaking which the psychological support level of 1.4500, also including 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its July-2013 to March-2014 up-move on daily chart, can become immediate support for the pair. On the successful encounter of 1.4500 level, the pair becomes vulnerable to test its medium-term support zone, marked by horizontal line, near 1.4420-1.4410. Given the pair’s inability to sustain the breakdown, the support line of the trend channel near 1.4615 becomes immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which 1.4640 and 1.4670, coinciding 200-day EMA on daily chart, can become immediate resistances for the pair. On the successful trading above 1.4670, the 1.4730 and the 38.2% Fibo. level near 1.4755-60 region can cap the near-term up-move of the pair.

EURCHF

Ever since the EURCHF reversed from important resistance zone of 1.2175- 1.2180, the pair continued observing the descending trend line by testing the lowest level since mid-March. However, the pair broke above the descending trend line today signaling the test of 1.2160 level on the successful trading above 1.2145 level. On the break of 1.2160, the 1.2175-80 zone likely to continue making its presence as an important level for determining the near-term movement of the pair. Should the pair breaks above 1.2180, the 200-day EMA on daily chart, near 1.2205, can cap the near-term up-move of the pair. Alternatively, a trade below 1.2135 negates the break out and can make the pair vulnerable to re-test 1.2120 and the yearly low of 1.2100.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”